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10-30-2013, 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
It might be hard to isolate the effects of player quality/performance from the effects of the system. Does Oilers allow lots of chances against in transition because of their system or because their players make mistakes (turnovers, ill timed pinches).

All hockey analysis seem to have a big "it depends" element to it. I don't mind. I like "it depends".
I think you'd be able to compare team-wide data with individual player on/off ice data to see if it's a great player (is Chara really amazing at preventing hard shots?) or if it's a team system (did the Leafs really "break" fenwick close?)

However, you're right, there's always going to be grey area. We're never going to be able to perfectly project what happens when two sets of 20 hockey players go up against each other, either in a single game or a series. At least until we stop having hockey played by humans and start having it played by robots

Originally Posted by VinnyC View Post
I'm surprised at how successful transition plays appear to be - given it results in a shot on goal, of course. He didn't include no-pass plays though, which I imagine would end up mangled with the "clean shots" sample.
It also doesn't include plays where the pass is broken up or missed by the receiver.

Cross ice passes in the slot are incredibly successful, but also fairly hard to get. Probably their danger is one of the reasons they're hard to get, defenses know that you should let a pass float across the crease to Stamkos if you don't enjoy slowly skating back to center-ice for a faceoff.

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