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11-04-2013, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
Half as many would not be anywhere near. Just keeping my outcome expectations low.
The point is that the outcome of this game is not influenced by the outcomes of the previous game. We're *theoretically* (not really; I'll touch on that in a second) just as likely to win this game having won the previous three as we'd be if we had lost one, or won two thousand, or lost two thousand.

The *theoretically* part assumes that the events are linearly independent, however. Which they're not in this case. For instance, because of scheduling, you might be likely to have a stretch of 3 easy games in a row, or maybe even four, but eventually you have to play a good team.

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