MLB Discussion Thread, Part II: Yanks pay Ellsbury
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11-23-2013, 11:57 AM
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Warwick, NY
Originally Posted by
I'm sorry you are completely wrong. He was a good player in 2011 and 2012. If you would like to make your entire basis of "good player" on batting average that's fine but your player valuation will be severely lacking. There is more to the game than hitting. In both 2011 and 2012 he posted above average walk rates which kept his OBP from being too terrible.
The average line for a CF in 2011/2012 was about .262/.327/.410 with a .148 ISO, .322 woba and 101 wRC+. During those years Young was .234/.324/.425 with a .191 ISO, .328 WOBA and 101 wRC+. So much worse at average, about CF average in OBP, much better power and overall exactly your average CF in offensive production.
Now while doing this he also was the number 1 ranked defensive CF and provided below average (but still positive) baserunning. He was also 10th of 22 qualified CF in WAR with 7.0 while playing in the 19th most games in 2012 due to injury. Of course he might be worse slightly less defensively for us if he is playing the corner because we have Lagares who might be the CF already.
He most certainly did not have a good season in 2013 but if you actually pay attention to the why rather than the what you will see it was largely due to misfortune. His counting numbers were the same/on the same pace as his 2012/2011 numbers. His walk rate dipped a bit but still was right around his league average. As I previously mentioned he struck out more than usual last year but he always strikes out a lot and has put up good seasons in the past with lots of strikeouts. Essentially the only difference between 2013 Young and previous year Youngs is his .237 BABIP - career average .274. His batted ball profile was almost identical. As I mentioned before his extreme flyball tendencies would be a huge detriment when playing in Oakland due to the massive amount of foul territory. The only other thing that looks slightly out of line is he chased more pitches out of the strikezone last year BUT at the same time he also made more contact with pitches out of the strikezone.
Young is a good player. A lot of his value is tied up in things that are not easily seen by the average fan who will hate him because of a low batting average and lots of strikeouts. Dave Cameron wrote a very good article about him yesterday.
The problem is guys who hit for a low batting average and strikeout a lot don't become better hitters as they get older. The avg. continues to drop with more strikeouts. I think Young is in the decline of his career, he doesn't run as well as he used too, and the power numbers probably won't be what they once were despite what Sabremetrics may say. Good defense and high walk totals is nice and all but you have to hit .200 to at least be a backup in this league.
He has flyball tendencies and Citi Field while not what it once was isn't exactly like hitting at Yankee Stadium. I don't see this change in ball parks making that great of a difference.
And to top it off he's on yet another team this year, both Arizona and Oakland have decided the flaws don't meet the strengths.
Like I said before I'd love to see him be the next Byrd, but I don't see it happening.
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