New York Post: Flyers taking run at Max Pacioretty
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12-26-2013, 09:01 PM
Join Date: Mar 2010
Those figures are skewed massively by putting in all players in top few rounds... guys picked in the 2nd and 3rd are 3-4 times less likely to be impact NHLers than guys drafted in the 1st.
So, when you look at the figures for top 25 picks only from the same datset:
3/9 > 0.4 in draft year are impact NHLers.
7/17 > 0.6 in draft year are impact NHLers.
That is significantly more than the 1/10 shot stated. More like 1/3 to 2/5.
Morin has scored 24 points in his last 34 Q games though... 0.71 PPG in that time.
He is also at 0.61 PPG this year.
If you look at the best CHL D men now in the NHL.
His numbers post draft year are right in the same range as:
Letang, Boyle, JBo, Yandle, Doughty, Staal, Wisniewski, Giordano, Letang, Pietrangelo, Keith, Campbell, Hamhuis, Subban, Vlasic and Green are the other CHL produced (ie not just jumped over from another league) d men I reckon are, or could be considered top 60 NHL D men. (I am probably missing one or two.)
So 9/25 scored at a similar or lower rate to Morin so far this year. So 36% of these CHL produced, top 4 D men were scoring at a similar or lesser rate at the same age as Morin.
So 30-40% based off position and round and ~36% based off guys in the NHL and their post draft CHL year. That looks less and less like a 1/10 chance.
The fact Morin skates so well at his size means he is unlikely to not play in the NHL in my opinion. Even if he is only a 5/6... where do you find 6'7 guys who skate that well? Heck, Hal Gill has a job still and he can't skate and has no offence, and never did.
from 1990-2004 (so 75 players taken in that kind of slot)
11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%
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