View Single Post
Old
12-26-2013, 08:01 PM
  #116
Appleyard
HFB Partner
 
Appleyard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Manc/Shef/Utrecht
Country: Netherlands
Posts: 15,788
vCash: 250
Those figures are skewed massively by putting in all players in top few rounds... guys picked in the 2nd and 3rd are 3-4 times less likely to be impact NHLers than guys drafted in the 1st.

So, when you look at the figures for top 25 picks only from the same datset:

http://thats-offside.blogspot.co.uk/...g-data-on.html

3/9 > 0.4 in draft year are impact NHLers.
7/17 > 0.6 in draft year are impact NHLers.

That is significantly more than the 1/10 shot stated. More like 1/3 to 2/5.

Morin has scored 24 points in his last 34 Q games though... 0.71 PPG in that time.

He is also at 0.61 PPG this year.

If you look at the best CHL D men now in the NHL.

His numbers post draft year are right in the same range as:

Hamonic (0.70)
Phaneuf (0.69)
Byfuglien (0.68)
Beauchemin (0.68)
Seabrook (0.67)
Alzner (0.60)
Coburn (0.54)
Weber (0.53)
Girardi (0.45)

Letang, Boyle, JBo, Yandle, Doughty, Staal, Wisniewski, Giordano, Letang, Pietrangelo, Keith, Campbell, Hamhuis, Subban, Vlasic and Green are the other CHL produced (ie not just jumped over from another league) d men I reckon are, or could be considered top 60 NHL D men. (I am probably missing one or two.)

So 9/25 scored at a similar or lower rate to Morin so far this year. So 36% of these CHL produced, top 4 D men were scoring at a similar or lesser rate at the same age as Morin.

So 30-40% based off position and round and ~36% based off guys in the NHL and their post draft CHL year. That looks less and less like a 1/10 chance.

The fact Morin skates so well at his size means he is unlikely to not play in the NHL in my opinion. Even if he is only a 5/6... where do you find 6'7 guys who skate that well? Heck, Hal Gill has a job still and he can't skate and has no offence, and never did.

Also:

from 1990-2004 (so 75 players taken in that kind of slot)

11-15: 200 GP: 57.3%, 400 GP: 50.7%, 700 GP: 38.7%, All-Star: 24%

Appleyard is offline   Reply With Quote