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01-02-2014, 05:12 AM
  #268
Beacon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRightWay View Post
A 30% chance he emerges as a legit 1st liner? Jesus ****ing Christ. Only about 25% of SECOND ROUND picks have legitimate NHL careers of ANY KIND. Duclair was a late third round pick. If we want to be generous we could assign him a 30% chance of playing a full season in the NHL in any capacity. Let alone having a lengthy NHL career. Let alone being a ****ing first liner.

We never learn from our mistakes. We hype the **** out of prospects, and then when they turn pro everyone becomes stunned and hits the panic/trade button once they struggle (Kreider, for instance). Or, they don't work out at all and people's minds are blown (Grachev, for example). Duclair is looking like a real good value pick right now, but give the hype machine a break.

A second rounder has a 20% chance of an NHL career, but a third rounder only a 10%. Duclair was drafted in the third round.

He was also thought to have a higher ceiling than most third round picks, so his odds were lower than 10%. (If two players are drafted in about the same spot, and one has a higher potential, why was the other drafted around the same spot? Because the lower ceiling guy has better odds.)

Half a year ago, his statistical odds were maybe 5-6% to have any kind of an NHL career.

Did he rise since then? No doubt. But did he go from 5% chance of being an NHLer to having a 30% chance of being a first liner? No way.

If he continues to improve, the sky is the limit, but let's just say his odds of playing in the NHL are 25-30% and the odds of being a first liner at maybe 5%. And this is being generous at this stage.

If he keeps up the pace and scores 105-110 points, I will give him 50-50 odds of making the NHL and 10% chance of being a first liner. Again, being generous with that one.

If next year he improves on his current performance, then we can start taking about a 30% chance of being a first liner. But that's 1.5 years away.

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