Trade Thread Part XI: New year...no trades.
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01-06-2014, 04:24 AM
Got Nothin To Say
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: New York, NY
Originally Posted by
Yeah, but a few things. The PA has a 5% bumper, if the cap is 70m that is minimum 3.5m increase. With the bumper alone and no growth at all, the cap hits 103m in 8 y. The difference between paying someone 5.5m in under a 63m cap vs a 103m cap speaks for itself.
I am on the phone and won't get into to much nitty gritty details, but the NHL is growing on a yearly basis for several reasons. Remember that the league grew during the worst financial crisis in 80 years (and history is not short on financial crisis).
As a starting number, take the numbers I've mentioned and add a ton. 103m in 8 years? Expect 148m (really, that is almost modest growth in relation to the last ten years).
Then this can be affected by a few factors. The US economy is thriving with the new energy found, gas and oil. Could the USD strengthen in relation to the loonie? 1/3 of NHL revenue is in Canadian dollar. This means for example that if the USD becomes 10% more valuable than the Canadian dollar, 1/3 of 10%, ie 3%, is lost of HRR and since the player share is 1/2 of HRR this hits the cap with a 1.5%.
My point is this, in relation to history expect to see normal growth. In relation to people's expectations, expect extreme growth. Some seems genuinely suprised that the cap is going up one year, like it could go either way, up ten or down ten or stand still. Not going to happen.
Oh... Safe to say my worries are not needed.
Didn't know all that
Ok changes my thoughts a bit more
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