Thread: Goalie reliability stats View Single Post
01-20-2014, 08:31 AM
#15
hatterson
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by TweetyLeaf Sadly im not good enough with excel to do this on my own. But here's an idea i think could be developed to show real goalie reliability. This is based purely on SV% because for me, that's the best basic stat indicator of goalie performance. Even tho it's not a good indicator to reliability by itself. Every game a goalie plays on or over 91% i consider a okay/good game. So every game goalie plays that % or over it he gets awarded +1 point. Every time goalie plays 90-90.9% he gets 0 points. and this goes on like this: 89 - 89.9 = -1 88 - 88.9 = -2 87 - 87.9 = -3 86 - 86.9 = -4 85 - 85.9 = -5 84 - 84.9 = -6 83 - 83.9 = -7 82 - 82.9 = -8 81 - 81.9 = -9 80 - 80.9 = -10 All below 80 are considered -10 because i don't think one very bad game should be penalized more than -10, it would be simply too hard for the goalie to make up for that game and it doesn't serve the purpose of the stat. Again, all save% over 91 just award 1 point, so for one 80.9% or under game a goalie needs to play 10 over 91% games to make up for it. The only thing that's bugging me with this is that the difference between 85% game and 84.9% game is a bit too much. Then again, i don't see reason enough to do this on 0.5% intervals because it complicates it a bit too much. So, i would love if someone would find the time to help me creating this excel sheet so i could just insert 1 goalies game log sv% into it and it would give me the stat.
If you can give me the format of the game logs to are using (NHL.com, ESPN.com, elsewhere, etc.) I could easily show you how to do the calculations.

In regards to the metric itself, I have a few issues:

1.) I think it too harshly punishes poor performances and doesn't reward great ones enough. A performance of 21 saves on 23 shots is worth +1 but a performance of 50 saves on 51 shots is also only with +1. In addition a goalie who has 10 straight performances of 50 saves on 51 shots and then has one bad game where he lets in 3 goals on 10 shots and is pulled would still clearly be the best goalie in the game, but in this metric would only be even.

On a 30 shot game the difference between letting in 0 goals and 2 goals is nothing. The difference between 0-2 and 3 is 1 point and the difference between letting in 3 and letting in 4 is 4 points.

2.) It does not differentiate between PP saves and ES saves. It is harder to make PP saves by a statistically significant margin, especially 5 on 3 saves. Did a goalie really play inconsistent if his team does something like the Nucks did the other night/week and earns a 7 minutes 5 on 3.

3.) It doesn't take the circumstances of the game into account. Carey Price's game against the Sens a few days back was a great game. He's the only reason the Habs made it to OT, really the only reason they didn't get blown out something like 8-4, but because he let in 4 goals on 44 shots he would receive a 0 for the game.

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