Goalie reliability stats
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01-20-2014, 04:18 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Originally Posted by
If you can give me the format of the game logs to are using (NHL.com, ESPN.com, elsewhere, etc.) I could easily show you how to do the calculations.
In regards to the metric itself, I have a few issues:
I would like to use NHL.com game log data. Like this one:
I would just copy the stat table to excel and clear the other data. So the sv% would be in 0.910 for example.
Originally Posted by
1.) I think it too harshly punishes poor performances and doesn't reward great ones enough. A performance of 21 saves on 23 shots is worth +1 but a performance of 50 saves on 51 shots is also only with +1. In addition a goalie who has 10 straight performances of 50 saves on 51 shots and then has one bad game where he lets in 3 goals on 10 shots and is pulled would still clearly be the best goalie in the game, but in this metric would only be even.
Yes, and the metric is there to show who are the goalies who play "best bad games".
It's purpose is not to measure how good goalie is in itself but more of who are the goalies who do not fail badly and play consistently okay, even when going trough bad stretches.
For good goalie measurements theres lots of other stats that need to be looked at. Like shutdowns and SV% and GAA and wins.
2.) It does not differentiate between PP saves and ES saves. It is harder to make PP saves by a statistically significant margin, especially 5 on 3 saves. Did a goalie really play inconsistent if his team does something like the Nucks did the other night/week and earns a 7 minutes 5 on 3.
This is something that i should think about, but for now, i think it would be good to do one test run without to keep it simpler.
Maybe even create different stat that takes those into account. Would be interesting how much different those are between different goalies.
3.) It doesn't take the circumstances of the game into account. Carey Price's game against the Sens a few days back was a great game. He's the only reason the Habs made it to OT, really the only reason they didn't get blown out something like 8-4, but because he let in 4 goals on 44 shots he would receive a 0 for the game.
Yes, but with this stat, getting 0 is not bad. So Price played like expected (was good).
I don't know, but would guess, that no goalie will end up into + with this stat after full season. But thats not the point. The point is how far into minus you go.
So don't think this like +/- stat
Appreciate any help i can get and really liked your thoughts on this!
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