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01-22-2014, 09:01 PM
Foolish Samurai
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Originally Posted by stan the caddy View Post
I hate to sound like a dick but this is why I hate fangraphs. Take an 11 person sample and try to prove something...

Ellsbury's value is heavily based on his ability to steal bases. They didn't sign him for his power or obp simply because neither are that good. It's no mystery that big SB numbers typically come in the early years of a player's career.

I could use Rickey Henderson and a bunch of other anomalies and write some article about how signing Cano until he's 41 is no biggie.

At the end of the day I think Ellsbury is massively overrated and overpaid considering the Yankees already had a good defensive CF with speed. Throw in the unjury factor that you mention and there's even more to be concerned about.
Ellsbury is a very good OFer who has one fluky uber-elite year. However, He put up 6 WAR in less than a full season. It's not outlandish to see how guys who have produced like him produced and try to see what the deal is.

Contracts are getting more expensive and the Yanks had the money. Getting a guy like Ellsbury, barring injury, was a fantastic move for the Yanks if they want to try to contend.

I honestly think he might be UNDERRATED, due to the fluke nature of his injuries. Adrian Beltre isn't going to fall on top of him and destroy his body every year. In 2011-2012, he was worth 1.5 wins in 70 games before injury, despite his BABIP being notably lower than his career average. Not crazy to imagine he could've put up 4 or more WAR that year as his BABIP normalized. If he averages 5 wins a year for the Yanks, it's a great deal. If he undershoots that a little bit (4~ WAR over the contract), oh well- that's the nature of FA. They still got a great player, though they had to slightly overpay.

It's one thing to argue that the Yanks shouldn't have signed ANYBODY and should've committed to rebuilding. However, since it's clear they don't want to do that, I think the Ellsbury deal is pretty solid.

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