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01-30-2014, 04:44 AM
  #8
Trolfoli
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Some interesting info. The Kings will get more wins in the future, there will be more losses too. This coming down to bad luck is BS. Luck will balance out over the course of the season. Luck is not the reason they have 1 goal in the last 3.

Corsi and possesion are good ways of analyzing the game. With any mathematical models they are only as good as the information you put in.

As far as possession goes, there are other factors that need to be considered then just how much time your team posses the puck.

Who is possessing the puck? There is a big difference between say Lewis and Carter having the puck. One is dangerous with the puck the other is just going to skate in circles.

Then you need to consider are the players on a line that compliments their abilities? Toffoli is much more productive with King/Richards then say Clifford/Fraser. So say Toffoli has the same possession numbers with both lines. With King/Richards he will have a lot more quality opportunities.

Offensive scheme needs to be looked at next. Hawks/Ducks have a more offensively productive schemes so they generate quality chances at a higher rate. While the Kings are ******* around in the corner other teams try to set up one timers in the offensive zone.

Milking the stats. This one will not be popular. Williams pisses me off for this. It killes me when he's out with Kopitar gets the puck and instead of trying to get a pass through to Kopitar/make a play he dumps the puck in the corner. Is there a top 6 forward on any other team that does this ****? Is it common and I just miss it? If the play isn't pretty much fool proof Williams will just follow team strategy and cycle the puck. As a result time of possession increases, but since the Kings don't seem to have plays set up for scoring off the cycle the extra possession doesn't necessarily lead to scoring chances.

On Kings getting shots from scoring areas. The position of the shot isn't the only thing. Who is taking that shot? How did the player get the puck? Did the player get the puck off a nice fast crisp pass and got the shot off before the goalie could move into position? Was it a Kings style shot where the predictable pass goes across slowly. Shooter stops the puck, winds up, waits for traffic and goalie to get into position then rips the shot. If the Kings practiced this on every shift instead of dumping the puck they'd be much better at it!!! This won't happen because Sutter.

There are a lot of other variables that go into these numbers that aren't accounted for. Quality of the player/line with the possession, offensive schemes of the teams playing (specifically teams that set up better scoring chances then hey cycle dump to point crash net), Systems like the Kings that are about possessing the puck. Looking at these and other variables, I'm sure I missed, it is easy to see why the Kings are playing like **** despite having such great possession numbers. It isn't just luck. The Kings are a better team then they've been playing lately. I have to believe that they'll get more then 1 goal in the next 3 games. Is this because of luck? No... well unless Lewis scores again.

Kings/Hawks possession numbers aren't really comparable because there are too many variables between players/systems.

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