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01-30-2014, 06:38 AM
  #9
Trolfoli
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Instead of looking at straight possession stats one could take into account say efficiency of possession. Teams have players of different skill levels, different coaches, different systems. So take number of goals and divide by time of possession. Remove the shootout goals, and remember to add the 5 mins for over time games. This should give a number for on average how long a team possesses the puck before scoring.

EX: Team A had 40 mins of possesion and 4 goals. Team B had 20 mins and 1 goal. So 4goals/40min leads to an average of 1 goal per 10 mins of possesion. The second team would have 1goal/20min.

The other trick would be estimating teams possession numbers against other teams. Track possession numbers high low range. Maybe add in quality of competition. Or use the ratio of the teams average times of possession.

An estimate could then be made between how much time of possession a team will get in a match up and their efficiency with that time. If you possess the puck 2 times as long as the other team but they are 2 times more efficient then the game should go to a tie. It could be a better way of evaluating different teams then just possession alone.

Are the Kings unlucky or is their lack of efficiency with the puck trumping their possession numbers?

Probably just easier to use a G/G number

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