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02-01-2014, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
As a reminder, Jaromir Jagr played an obscene amount of minutes in 1998-99 and 1999-2000, so much so that even despite missing 19 games in 1999-2000, the difference between league-leading forward's ES/PP TOI that year (1757 minutes) and Jagr's ES/PP TOI that year (1445 minutes) is comparable to the difference between Jagr's ES/PP TOI in 1999 (2023 minutes) and the runner-up in ES/PP TOI (1855 minutes). The runnerup in scoring in 1999 played 1671 ES/PP minutes (352 less than Jagr). The runnerup in scoring in 2000 played 1658 ES/PP minutes (213 more than Jagr).

Looking at a raw point or point-per-game lead with Jaromir Jagr is not going to be representative of the actual disparities in talent, because while Jaromir Jagr was the most talented offensive player of his generation, several of the other offensive superstars were relied upon for heavy defensive minutes (Fedorov, Kariya, Forsberg, Sakic, Modano) while Jagr was double and triple shifted on offensive minutes. Despite all of his Art Ross Trophies, Jagr has only led points per ES/PP time once (2000). Had the runnerups in scoring been relied upon for strictly offense and for as many minutes as Jagr was getting, maybe they don't win his Art Ross Trophies (Forsberg, Selanne, and Elias in 1998, 1999, and 2001 seem to be the most likely candidates; 1995 TOI is unavailable), but they at least close the gap on Jagr's leads to a greater extent.

Which is why asking for Sidney Crosby to have a 20 point lead on Tavares is unreasonable. In 2007, Crosby only played 1621 ES/PP minutes (the leader played 1839). In 2009, Crosby played 1616 ES/PP minutes (the leader played 1758). In 2006, Crosby played 1579 ES/PP minutes (the league leader, Jaromir Jagr, played 1782). The highest Crosby has played was 1706 ES/PP minutes in 2010... pretty far off from Jagr's 2023 minutes in 1999.

If the Penguins were to double and triple shift Crosby the way they did Jagr, then maybe the difference in scoring gaps would be relevant to the comparison. But what use is a 20-point scoring gap in 1999 to us when we know that Jagr recorded 17 points in the final minutes of those games with the extra shifts that were not afforded to Jagr's runnerup?
While I agree with this line of reasoning we should apply it to Crosby as well who is only 8th in Even strength point/60 this season.

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