Trade Rumor/Speculation Thread XIX: The Olympic Freeze
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02-11-2014, 07:23 PM
Join Date: Apr 2004
Originally Posted by
How is the cap getting to 93-95 mill in 4 years? That seems to me like a massive increase.
I haven't read up on the economics
and process of how they decide what to raise the cap to, but that number seems massively high to me. For the last 5 years, I believe we've been in the range of 60-70 mill.
The rise in cap ceiling will surely mean rise in cap floor. How can the small market teams even hope to raise their cap by 20-25 million in the next 4 years?
I don't think you can expect anything more than
Haha I can tell.
I also said after the coming 4 years.
The cap is reported to be 71m next season by NHL's "official" prediction. The NHL has made its predictions every year since the cap was put in place, and if I remember correctly it has been low every year but one. This time there is speculation that the low CDN might lower it (up to 1 mil), but we will see, there is no confirmation whatsoever that the NHL didn't already take that into account.
Walsh has reported that he heard that the cap will be 80m in 15/16. The CDN TV-money comes into play that season. Not next year. I haven't done any numbers, but the NHL's avg. growth has been 7.5% yearly since the cap was put in place. From 39 to what we have now. That is during the midst of maybe the worst financial crash ever.
The NHLPA has a thing called a 5% "inflator". The players always get the exact amount of dollar they are due to get from their portion of the NHL's hockey related revenue, that has nothing -- and really nothing -- to do with the cap. But if the cap stands still one year, its unfair for the players that becomes FA's that year. Hence the NHLPA can, and always does, invoke the 5% inflator which bumps the cap with 5%. So even if there is zero growth one year, the cap will still be 5% higher the next year.
Even with just counting with annual 5% increase per year (which means that the NHL would do
in relation to what they having been doing lately or what they should be expected to do), this is the development of the cap:
14/15 Cap: 71.5m
15/16 Cap: 80m (per what Walsh heard)
16/17 Cap: 84m
17/18 Cap: 88.4m
The Walsh number might be doubtful, I haven't done the math on what the CDN tv-money will mean for the NHL. But it stills gives you an impression of where the cap will be. It most certainly won't be 80m. You are going out on a tremendous limb if you predict that the cap only will increase with 5% yearly. Its extremely hard to understand why the leagues financials will take an extreme nosedive like that after 30-40 straight years, with a year or two as exceptions, having growth that is higher than that.
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