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02-24-2014, 06:29 PM
  #488
bone
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I don't expect much. Yeah they won a bit before the break but other than the Nashville game and maybe the NY/Vancouver games they were still badly outplayed. They are also 18 back of the 6th pick, so worst case is moving three spots.

Can they be 5 points better than New York in equal games? Possibly, maybe even probable with Tavares out.

Can they be 4 points better than Florida in two less games? It could happen, I'm not too sure of that as Edmonton likely has the tougher schedule to go.

Can they be 4 points better than Calgary in two less games? Similar schedules, but Calgary is actually full marks for their little pre-break run as opposed to feeding off league leading goaltending that may not be sustainable. Probably comes down the head to head games.

Odds currently have Edmonton with a 57% chance at finishing second last and 94% of being bottom 4 without considering the Tavares factor, but Edmonton's likely to trade away a bunch of players as well. I'd be shocked to see them end up with the 5th worst record as they'd likely have to go about 14-8 in the final 22 games to be in that range.

Do you see 14 wins in a stretch of games against Avalanche, Blues, Canucks, Coyotes, Ducks (x3), Flames (x2), Hurricanes, Islanders, Kings (x2), Predators, Rangers, Red Wings, Sabres, Senators, Sharks (x2), Wild (x2). I don't. I see about 6 very winnable games, and 3 or 4 maybe games, meaning they got to fluke out 4 more games without considering they could blow a couple of the winnable games.


Last edited by bone: 02-24-2014 at 06:36 PM.
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