Thread: Speculation: Justin Schultz's extension
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02-26-2014, 02:44 PM
  #51
dyzfunctioned
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paralyzer View Post
See, I don't understand how he ISN'T worth it. I mean, look at their overall point totals:

Jordan Eberle 254GM 87G 114A 201Pts = PPG 0.79

Taylor Hall 224GM 85G 116A 201Pts = PPG 0.89

RNH 160GM 37G 82A 119Pts = PPG 0.74

To say Eberle doesn't deserve 6M a year means RNH doesn't deserve it too Points-wise. I know everyone is all like "We need to be BIGGER" but in no way is Eberle a overrated player.
I can't speak for everyone, but it's probably due to a combination of upside and when the contracts were signed.

Eberle signed that contract at the best possible time for him, and the worst possible time for the Oilers - his value was at its highest after posting 76 points in 78 games while shooting at 18.9%. Outside of that season he's shot at 11.4%, 12.0% and 12.2%, an average of 11.9% which is certainly a whole lot more reasonable than 18.9%. At this percentage he would have only recorded 63 points in 76 games during the 2011-12 season. Removing that season, he's put up 0.71 points per game or about 58 points per 82 games. Over the past two seasons he's put up 0.77 points per game or 63 points per 82 games which is a bit better, but maybe not a steal at $6M long term.

It's also worth noting he's almost 24 while Taylor Hall is 22 and RNH is just about to turn 21, so Eberle is way further ahead in his development. Eberle was 21 in his first NHL season and put up 43 points in 69 games (0.62 ppg) - RNH is in his 21 year old season and has 43 points in 58 games so far (0.74 ppg) and Hall put up 50 points in 45 games in his 21 year old season (1.11 ppg).

Furthermore, given junior production and their track record in the early NHL years, it's pretty safe to assume (and widely agreed upon) that Hall and RNH have higher upside than Eberle.

So in summary:

1) Eberle signed his contract at the worst time for the organization, after what may be his career season. Averages show that it's more likely he will be a 60-70 point player most years than a point per game one.

2) Eberle's production at the same age, both in junior and in the NHL (0.62 vs. 0.74 vs. 1.11 at age 21) show that it's very unlikely that he is on the same level talent wise and that he has a lower upside.

Eberle isn't really one of the "kids" - he's turning 24 and is 2 years older than Hall and 3 years older than RNH.

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