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03-19-2014, 06:53 PM
  #127
DL44
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Reworking the "Game Winning Goal" stat..

I would love to see the Game Winning Goal stat amended and redefined... and then see what kind of historical difference it makes in a study.

How i would amend the definition of a GWG:
The goal that gives the team the lead which it doesn't relinquish.

i.e.
Team A beats B : 3-2
Presently the 3rd goal by Team A is the GWG.

Redefined scenarios:
Team A beats B : 3-2
scenario 1 - A goes up 3-0, B scores next 2... 1st goal is the GWG.
scenario 2 - Score tied by B at 1-1, A scores 2 to make it 3-1, B scores... 2nd goal is GWG.
scenario 3 - Score tied by B at 2-2... 3rd goal scored is the GWG.


Why change it:
I believe it's an improvement by adding a little more significance to the stat.

Con... it may still be flawed in the extreme example:
A beats B 4-3.
A scores 2: 2-0
B: 2-1
A: 3-1
B: 3-2
A: 4-2
B: 4-3
Final score 4-3... GWG : the 1st goal.

But this Con would be far more rare than the present late meaningless goal scenario that occurs which shifts the reward of the stat.


For the people who conduct these types of studies, the historical boxscores seem readily available...
I once did a handful of teams a yr or two ago... but obviously not a league wide or multiple season en devour.


======

Edit:

I found where i did a few teams for the 11-12 season:
In this thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...+winning+goals

I did: Van, CBJ, Ana, Bos, TB, and Pit in that thread.
TO ME it seemed like it reflected a potentially significant difference... but i was met with less than open minds.


Last edited by DL44: 03-19-2014 at 07:15 PM.
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