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03-23-2014, 08:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
I think the point is that Embiid being in the draft makes it more likely one of the other guys slips down a spot, should the Sixers end up not benefiting from the lottery.
Brett Brown was an assistant for a long time with San Antonio and they did pretty well with a two-headed monster of David Robinson & Tim Duncan. He also came out recently and said Sixers should go best player available and if it's Embiid they'll make it work. Could be smokescreen, but my personal top-5 is.

#1)Wiggins, #2)Embiid, #3)Parker, #4)Exum, #5)Vonleh.

I consider there to be a drop between 4 and 5 even though I really like Vonleh(I'd love him to drop and get with the New Olreans pick, but they keep winning and he's not sliding to 10 or 11).

If I looked at more of Exum and saw him against a better level of competition he could go higher. I love his size and athleticism and he just looks like he has an 'it' factor to him.

The way I view things is if the Sixers finish 2nd worst (which looks pretty likely even if they lose out cuz the Bucks are horrible and keep losing too) The Sixers will have a 87.7% chance of picking in the top-4. There's a 12.3% chance of picking 5th which would only happen if teams with better records than the two worst teams all win the top-3 picks. That would push the Bucks to 4th and the Sixers to 5th.

Whether they have the worst record or 2nd worst record the chances of winning the #1 pick really aren't that good. 25% chance to win if worst, 19.9% if 2nd worst. So reverse that and it's a 75% likelihood of not picking 1st or 80% likelihood of not picking first.

Somehow this has translated into people not understanding probabilities to say you might as well have the 3rd/4th/5th worst record because teams who finish 1st don't win the lotto that much. Of course they don't win it that much. You are 75% likely NOT to pick 1st if you finish worst. The NBA draft is small sample size. Rolling a square 20 times and seeing how many times it lands on one specific side you'll probably have a portion represented more than 5 times.

Now roll that same square 1 million times and you'll get odds closer to 25%.

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