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06-02-2014, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Of course, but going for the homerun at least maximizes the chances of hitting a homerun, instead of going for a bunt like Klotz.
That's where I disagree and think the baseball analogy stops working.

Plenty of "homeruns" were not picked by "swinging for the fences". Lots of them were just average picks at the time and randomly turned into homeruns.

Take a guy like Seidenberg or Ehrhoff. Both late round guys who were passed up in their draft years (Seidenberg twice). Those weren't wild swings actively looking for the homerun. To continue the analogy, they were base hits that randomly accelerated in the air until they somehow made it out of the park.

I totally agree with your point (which is to stop drafting for the fourth line), but I'm just pointing out that a lot of the best picks aren't ones that you thought anything of on draft day (eg, a guy like Oliver Bjorkstrand-- one where everyone goes, "Holy crap, what a steal!!").

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