Oilers hire Tyler Dellow
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08-05-2014, 01:16 PM
No mas, Adam. No mas
Join Date: Jul 2005
Originally Posted by
There is more to sample size then the number of games. Its about trackable events. The oilers had 306 goals(either for against) at 5v5 last year that go into GF%(which is really just goal differential expressed differently).
Compare that to 5224 Corsi events for the Oilers last year, and yes Goals is far to small of a sample size.
To put it another way, its pretty much common sense that a team with a good GF% is going to make the playoffs. Teams with a positive goal differential rarely miss the playoffs.
The question guys like Dellow and Eric Tulsky are asking and trying to determine is why those teams have good goal differentials, and what aspects of that good goal differential are repeatable.
You can grasp the concept that the number of Corsi events that would be classified as impossible to result in a goal is completely ignored yet highly significant, no?
Saying the LA Kings were able to be predicted to the win the cup based on Corsi% and saying that GF% doesn't matter due to "sample size" is pure folly and completely manipulation of circumstance.
GF% corralated more with regular season results that Corsi did, period. No end run or goalpost moving changes that fact one bit.
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