Oilers hire Tyler Dellow
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08-05-2014, 12:25 PM
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
You can grasp the concept that the number of Corsi events that would be classified as impossible to result in a goal is completely ignored yet highly significant, no?
Saying the LA Kings were able to be predicted to the win the cup based on Corsi% and saying that GF% doesn't matter due to "sample size" is pure folly and completely manipulation of circumstance.
GF% corralated more with regular season results that Corsi did, period. No end run or goalpost moving changes that fact one bit.
I don't know a lot about the subject of advanced stats, but I do believe that they have relevance. However, to your bolded section: those shots that miss the net, or get blocked do have the potential to result in a goal until they actually miss (and are not deflected by a teammate), or are actually blocked by the player.
It sounds kinda quantum-like, but they count until they don't count.
The idea behind Corsi is that you need to shoot in order to score. So it kind of makes sense to include the shots that don't actually end up as SOG. It's pure happenstance when a shot is blocked, thus removing it as a SOG. And same goes for missed shots and missed shots not being deflected in.
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