What would you do at the draft?
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05-20-2007, 08:32 PM
Join Date: Aug 2003
Originally Posted by
I only see three names on that list that I would consider top six players (anymore). Adding one player to this group will not put us in the playoffs. Two will make you border line playoff contender. Three legit top six players will put you in the hunt. You only have 2 twenty goal scorers on that list and a hopeful. 3 centers that are third or 4th line players and a spare part third line winger. You need to come up with about 70-80 goals, if you think we can be a contender. Two Guerin and Tkachuk type scorers do not make us Stanley cup contenders. Throw in a #1 center and I think you might have something. (until we expect them to produce in the playoffs
) Let's not go there again. I think you're just one player short.
1) I've already broken down this teams projections under Murray a hundred times. The ONLY player we need to replace to get back to that 106 point level is Guerin(35 goals).
I've also broken down how our team currently stands scoring wise. Right now we are a 180-200 goal team. Whatever FA's we add will increase that number with my TARGET for offensive production being the 240 mark.
2) With our defense we do NOT need to come up with 70-80 goals. This team does not NEED a Buffalo/Ottawa/Nashville caliber(270-300 goals) offense to be a winning team. Even a middle-teir offense(220-240 goals) will put this team solidly on the winning side in the standings.
Furthermore, this team is GEARED towards the PO's. Our defensive mind-set and approach will carry this team a LOT further in the PO's than any scorers up front will.
3A) You say there's only "two 20 goal scorers" on that list; but that statement isn't exactly accurate. Both of those "20 goal scorers" have the ability to put in 25 goals. It's a red herring to say that this team only has "two 20 goal scorers" when the truth is that this team has "two potential 30 goal scorers".
B) You're also ignoring the fact that Rucinsky consistently produces at a 20 goal/60 point clip. He doesn't get to that mark due to injury but he has the IMPACT of a 20 goal forward, and that IS an important thing to note.
C) You are completely ignoring the scoring paces of Weight and Cajanek under Murray. Weight was on pace for 23 goals and 66 points under Murray(by far his best scoring pace as a Blue) and Cajanek was on pace for 28 goals and 56 points after being put on the wing. At the VERY least these two have to be put in the "maybe" category with Backes.
Of those five, how many will realistically pan out? ... If three of them pan out or come over for that matter, then we did good. From experience, we know one of them may well end up being the next Peter Sejna.
1) I count 7(Berglund, Oshie, Soderberg, Kana, Birner, + 2 from this years draft), not 5.
2) Birner, Kana and Oshie will at least make the NHL as 3rd liners. They are too high-energy NOT to do so.
So of Berglund, Soderberg and the 2 we pick up in this years draft who do you think WON'T make the NHL in SOME capacity?
3) Let's go with your pessimistic view and say only 3 of them make the NHL: combine that with McClement, Boyes, Stempniak and Backes(already established NHL'ers) and you have a grand total of TWO(2) empty slots on the top 3 lines. DO you really want to fill BOTH of those slots this summer, or would you rather grab a 1 or 2 year player for this year and get somebody better than this years crop of FA next summer(such as Marleau, Heatley, Hossa or Iginla)?
You keep talking about the future; but your logic doesn't extend more than 4 months in advance. I'm trying to take a MUCH longer veiw on the Blues situation.
For a young legit top four defenseman and a first round pick, I expect a young legit top six forward (25-35 goals 30 to 40 helpers) or two potential top six forwards or Backman is not part of the deal. If I'm getting Stillman, then I'm trading Salvy and a 1st.
1) I understand where you're coming from in you assesment; but you're under-rating Stillman. The guy is a LOCK for 20-25 goals when healthy. That kind of consistency is very hard to come by.
2) The CLOSEST trade to the one you're talking about would be the Tanguay deal at last years draft; and it took Jordan Leopold and two(2) 2nd round picks(one last year and one this year) to get him.
Things to note about this deal:
A) Leopold is a slightly better D man than Backman.
b) Tanguay has NEVER scored 30 goals in a season. He's only hit the 29 mark ONCE. Tanguay is typically a 25 goal/70 point player; and that is EXACTLY the type of forward I'm suggesting we go after(get over your fixation on the "20 goal" label; I only use that number because 30 goal players are EXTREMELY rare). I suggest you look at the ACTUAL production of the players I'm suggesting we target instead of looking at their perceived value. I think you'll be surprised.
C) A 2nd round pick last year was nearly as valueable as a 1st round pick this year. Even my initial package of Backman, a 1st and Hinote probably wouldn't be enough to get a forward of this caliber.
All that being said; we're not really in disagreement on what type of player this package should return, I am just very reluctant to give players that "30 goal" label. A LOT of things have to happen for players to hit that mark(health(both theirs and their linemates), finding a set-up man whom they have chemistry with, playing time(especially on the PP), consistency, etc...) and I don't think it's fair to expect any player coming from another team to just step in a produce 30 goals. Instead, I'm asking for a player who will AT LEAST hit the 20 mark but has the upside to do more.
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