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07-11-2007, 10:29 PM
  #73
Brooklyn Ranger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
OK, I'll try to illustrate this and some other things as clearly as I can.

I believe that nhlnumbers is attempting to tell everyone, "hey - here's how things stand going into Opening Night." Whether that's actually the case or not, I don't know - but considering every player is either listed at 187 days or 0 days, it's clear he's not using the offseason method to calculate where teams stand right now - which is what I've got going on my "Team Numbers" page. Thus, it appears that he's trying to give an estimate going into the start of the season.

Apparently, he thinks Kasparaitis is going to be on the Opening Night roster - which is why he's showing the Rangers over. In reality, they're not even over right now. If (when) Kasparaitis gets assigned to Hartford, he won't count because he wasn't 35 or older when he signed a multi-year contract. Kaspar could be 37 right now, and he'd still not count because he was under 35 when he signed his most recent contract.

The fact is, his numbers (my numbers, ... whoever's numbers you want to use) are only as accurate as
1. the assumptions underlying them, and
2. the accuracy to which salaries and/or cap numbers are being reported.

None of them - not even mine - should be treated as the be-all, end-all, indisputable answer. Heck, my numbers could easily be off now or during the season - but considering I'm getting mine straight from the league's information, then it's mostly just a matter of whether I'm doing the computations correctly. (The other site is just taking my numbers and presenting them in a different format, but based on what I've seen for computations in '06-07, those numbers are off; at times, they're way off.) However, when someone's numbers are clearly inaccurate because of erroneous assumptions and/or data, ... well, then accepting them as indeed being accurate is problematic for everyone else who sees them. It's how myths like, "players on IR don't count against the cap" get started and propogated even though it's patently clear that they do indeed count against the cap. It's how myths like, "if we send him down, he'll still count" get started and propogated - when the facts may dictate otherwise.

So ... if you want to look at nhlnumbers and see you're $1.4 million over and panic, fine - panic. The fact is, assuming the 19 guys I've marked on my site do in fact start the season with the Rangers, you guys have about $3,564,000 before you're absolutely maxed out - and assuming Shanahan will hit his GP bonuses, you're about $1,564,000 from that point.

Regardless, the Rangers are most certainly not over the cap - not right now, not for the start of the season.
Thanks for laying it all out in one place. I think the reason why the site counts Kaspar is because he does have to return to the NHL roster under the CBA and can't be sent back through waivers until after training camp. Another thing to notice is that the site doesn't count Girardi and Callahan (or Staal)--probably because they are still waiver exempt and are not locks to make the lineup, so while there is still wiggle-room left--because of Kaspar's assumed demotion--there isn't a whole lot left once all the players needed to get to the 23 man roster are counted. That's assuming there are no last minute roster surprises.

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