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Offer sheet vs. Arbitration...

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07-30-2007, 09:36 AM
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Beukeboom Fan
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Offer sheet vs. Arbitration...

Do you you think that more premier RFA's will avoid arbitration to potentially get a RFA offersheet? A guy like Cammelleri will do very well in arbitration, but if he didn't file he might be able to sign a RFA offersheet that would probably be at a greater salary for a much longer term.

I realize that only EDM has gone down this path, but I'd expect that more organization will do this going forward.

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07-30-2007, 09:51 AM
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If RFA's start shying away from arbitration figuring they'll get offer sheets, expect teams to start using the two times per year they can drag an arbitration-eligible RFA in.

I also think the "hyperinflation" some people think we're seeing with salaries across the board will come to a grinding halt the first summer after the cap only rises about 8-9%. It might not happen next summer, but IMO we definitely won't see it in 2009-10.

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07-30-2007, 09:54 AM
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Don't think so.

We've still two GMs make offer sheets. Sure, if you get one, it'll probably be more than what your arbitration value is, but, if you don't get an offer, you have no real leverage at all. If a team is comfortable with taking that risk, they can play hardball. If they do get an offer sheet, there is the opportunity to match. If not, the player is put in a situation where they can hold out, or accept the offer given to them.

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07-30-2007, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by discostu View Post
Don't think so.

We've still two GMs make offer sheets. Sure, if you get one, it'll probably be more than what your arbitration value is, but, if you don't get an offer, you have no real leverage at all. If a team is comfortable with taking that risk, they can play hardball. If they do get an offer sheet, there is the opportunity to match. If not, the player is put in a situation where they can hold out, or accept the offer given to them.
I agree in principle - but I'm thinking for guys who are "premier" RFA's like Jason Spezza. Maybe even a guy like M Michalek if he continues to progress on last year's production. Both of those guys will be on teams that need to make some tough decisions, which would lead you to beleive that there is an increased chance for an offer sheet.

Looking at some of last year's arbitration numbers, I guess it would be a high-risk situation to think that you'll get an offer-sheet instead of getting paid some very decent coin through arbitration.

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07-30-2007, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
I agree in principle - but I'm thinking for guys who are "premier" RFA's like Jason Spezza. Maybe even a guy like M Michalek if he continues to progress on last year's production. Both of those guys will be on teams that need to make some tough decisions, which would lead you to beleive that there is an increased chance for an offer sheet.

Looking at some of last year's arbitration numbers, I guess it would be a high-risk situation to think that you'll get an offer-sheet instead of getting paid some very decent coin through arbitration.
I don't think it would happen with Spezza, or any of the older RFAs, that are near UFA.

If you're a RFA, you may get an offer, but, it will only be from very select teams, who have to pay a hefty price (up to four 1st rounders). There aren't too many teams that will be willing to give up a near max salary, and at the same time, give up their draft picks for the foreseeable future.

If you want top dollar, and you're not happy with the offers coming from the Sens, you just wait it out for a year, taking it to arbitration. You'll still be well paid, but, if the Sens don't trade you, you get to ride out the contract, and hit the open market, where, the only restriction is how much free cap space do all the teams have, that are willing to spend it on you. You're much more likely to get top dollar in that venue.

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07-30-2007, 12:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by discostu View Post
I don't think it would happen with Spezza, or any of the older RFAs, that are near UFA.

If you're a RFA, you may get an offer, but, it will only be from very select teams, who have to pay a hefty price (up to four 1st rounders). There aren't too many teams that will be willing to give up a near max salary, and at the same time, give up their draft picks for the foreseeable future.
Are you saying Spezza won't be an offer sheet target as an RFA?

He is one of the few young players I would throw a 6 year / $42 million contract at. That's a fair deal for a player of his level, and I'd be willing to trade four 1st for him.

IMO, The Sens should let Heatley go and sign Spezza long-term. I think Spezza is just starting to end his prime.

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07-30-2007, 01:26 PM
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Are you saying Spezza won't be an offer sheet target as an RFA?

He is one of the few young players I would throw a 6 year / $42 million contract at. That's a fair deal for a player of his level, and I'd be willing to trade four 1st for him.

IMO, The Sens should let Heatley go and sign Spezza long-term. I think Spezza is just starting to end his prime.
I think there are far more teams that are willing to sign Spezza as a UFA, than a RFA.

The offer you suggest is probably in the range of what Ottawa would be offering, so, signing him away as a RFA woudl take more than that. You're high on Spezza, but, would you do the same deal if it was 6 years, at $50-55M, while also giving up 4 first round picks?

If Spezza is unhappy with Ottawa's offers, and is looking to cash in at the highest rate possible, he'll be looking for the money he'd get as a unrestricted free agent, which, would likely be in that range. He's far more likely to get it as a UFA.

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07-30-2007, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by discostu View Post
I think there are far more teams that are willing to sign Spezza as a UFA, than a RFA.

The offer you suggest is probably in the range of what Ottawa would be offering, so, signing him away as a RFA woudl take more than that. You're high on Spezza, but, would you do the same deal if it was 6 years, at $50-55M, while also giving up 4 first round picks?
If Spezza gets to UFA status, someone will throw close to a max contract to him. Will he get there? Who knows. Will The Sens even let him get to UFA status? Not if they're smart.

I would offer up to 6 years, $50 million. If Lowe was willing to offer such a large deal to Thomas Vanek and he was willing to part with four 1sts, he must be willing to offer four 1sts for a better player in Spezza.

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07-30-2007, 03:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8BostonRocker24 View Post
If Spezza gets to UFA status, someone will throw close to a max contract to him. Will he get there? Who knows. Will The Sens even let him get to UFA status? Not if they're smart.

I would offer up to 6 years, $50 million. If Lowe was willing to offer such a large deal to Thomas Vanek and he was willing to part with four 1sts, he must be willing to offer four 1sts for a better player in Spezza.
Unless his situation is completely different a year from now, or, Spezza isn't interested in going to Edmonton for whatever reason. Remember, it took a deal where Vanek was getting likely at least $2-3M more than what Buffalo was likely offering for Vanek to sign it.

Lowe is the only GM throwing these deals around right now. If Ottawa doesn't have him signed him by July 1st next year, I'll be concerned, but, given that so few contracts have gone this way, I'm not losing sleep over it at this stage.

If contract talks do deteriorate, where, it looks like Spezza will only consider one year deals next year, you can bet that Ottawa would probably look to make a trade, rather than lose him for nothing. RFA offer sheets become tools when a team won't consider trading, and, the compensation is pretty much forced on them. If Ottawa's at a point where they'll consider letting him go, a team would probably be much better suited to come to hte table with a deal with Ottawa, rather than go through the hassle of an offer sheet. That way, you can negotiate a deal with him that doesn't try to outbid Ottawa, so they waive their matching rights. Instead of draft picks, teams can find players or prospects that may fit the bill for a mutually beneficial solution, and then sign the player at a deal that isn't neccessarily as crippling.

But, all this being said, there's nothing to suggest at this point that talks will go this way. Sub in Spezza's name with any other star player one year away from UFA status, and, you'll likely get the same story. That's how the Luongo situation went down. That's how the Havlat situation went down. That's how most of these deals will go down.

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