Kings need Montoya - What's a good deal to get it done?

[pld459666]

Originally Posted by chosen

Your logic is faulty because you are comparing a player like Dawes with the ultimate potential outcome in St. Louis. You're right that no one can say Dawes won't become St. Louis but probability points out that it is a whole lot closer to a 0% chance as opposed to your happy scenario.

You could substitute a hundred something players for Dawes in your equation who will fail to live up to St. Louis.

In fact, your main point of comparison appears to be that both players are short, hardly enough to draw any meaningful comparison. All short 22 year olds who have scored 20 something goals outside of the NHL could be St. Louis to you. That's an okay way to evaluate if you are not concerned about the reality of it all. Anybody could become anything.

Would you trade Dawes for Jack Johnson? Hopefully you would, but if you believe Dawes is the next St. Louis than you shouldn't do the deal. I do the deal in a heartbeat and have zero regrets no matter the result.

My main point of comparison isn' that both are short, it goes further in that Dawes wasn't drafted until later in the draft (6th round) Marty wasn't drafted at all, the initial seasons spent in the minors (both Dawes and Marty) were very similar in terms of production, neither were or are expected to become much of NHL regulars let alone Hart Trophy winners.

So here we are, you would trade Dawes and Montoya (two players who have proven nothing) in a hearbeat, if I may use your own words, for Jack Johnson (another player who has proven nothing). It seems kind of counter productive to the point you are making.

[pld459666]

Originally Posted by chosen

Your logic is faulty because you are comparing a player like Dawes with the ultimate potential outcome in St. Louis. You're right that no one can say Dawes won't become St. Louis but probability points out that it is a whole lot closer to a 0% chance as opposed to your happy scenario.

You could substitute a hundred something players for Dawes in your equation who will fail to live up to St. Louis.

In fact, your main point of comparison appears to be that both players are short, hardly enough to draw any meaningful comparison. All short 22 year olds who have scored 20 something goals outside of the NHL could be St. Louis to you. That's an okay way to evaluate if you are not concerned about the reality of it all. Anybody could become anything.

Would you trade Dawes for Jack Johnson? Hopefully you would, but if you believe Dawes is the next St. Louis than you shouldn't do the deal. I do the deal in a heartbeat and have zero regrets no matter the result.

With this comment, YOU made that my main point of comparison.

My comment (verbatim) was this:

And your analogy between Dawes and St. Louis has a ton of merit. Both are smaller forwards, both can skate (with Martin getting the nod) both have a knack for not getting hit and both have the innate ability to score goals. Both players were overlooked by the GM's of the NHL a few times with Dawes actually getting drafted.

I listed 5 itmes that compared the players and you took the initial comment and made that my main point of comparison.

Style of play, knack for not getting hit and innate ability to score goals is the main point of comparison considering all three relate to the players abilities and not just their stature.

[Beacon]

Originally Posted by ATLANTARANGER

Sauer is not a mid range prospect. I would love to trade with you.

Depends on the definition of mid-range. I don't mean the average of all prospects out there. I mean someone who does not have star potential.

[chosen]

Originally Posted by pld459666

With this comment, YOU made that my main point of comparison.

My comment (verbatim) was this:

And your analogy between Dawes and St. Louis has a ton of merit. Both are smaller forwards, both can skate (with Martin getting the nod) both have a knack for not getting hit and both have the innate ability to score goals. Both players were overlooked by the GM's of the NHL a few times with Dawes actually getting drafted.

I listed 5 itmes that compared the players and you took the initial comment and made that my main point of comparison.

Style of play, knack for not getting hit and innate ability to score goals is the main point of comparison considering all three relate to the players abilities and not just their stature.

I honestly believe that the main reason you chose to compare the two players is physical stature because you can picture Dawes becoming St. Louis. There are so many players to compare Dawes to yet you chose a very small player because it's easier for you to picture your scenario this way.

Whether that is true or not, you've created an equation based mostly in hope. It might work out but probability would probably put it somewhere around a 3% chance if I had to make a guess.

[pld459666]

Originally Posted by chosen

I honestly believe that the main reason you chose to compare the two players is physical stature because you can picture Dawes becoming St. Louis. There are so many players to compare Dawes to yet you chose a very small player because it's easier for you to picture your scenario this way.

Whether that is true or not, you've created an equation based mostly in hope. It might work out but probability would probably put it somewhere around a 3% chance if I had to make a guess.

If that's what you believe I can't change that other than to re-point to my post that speaks more to their playing styles than size, but if you want to focus on the size comment that's up to you.

My equation is based solely on the 2 players production at the same stage of their careers and stating that who's to say that Dawes can't do what Marty did. Based on their career paths and accomplishments a comparison of the two players is fair. If you want I can make you happy and throw in the size factor and say "WOW look at that, they are both small to boot"

[chosen]

Originally Posted by pld459666

If that's what you believe I can't change that other than to re-point to my post that speaks more to their playing styles than size, but if you want to focus on the size comment that's up to you.

My equation is based solely on the 2 players production at the same stage of their careers and stating that who's to say that Dawes can't do what Marty did. Based on their career paths and accomplishments a comparison of the two players is fair. If you want I can make you happy and throw in the size factor and say "WOW look at that, they are both small to boot"

Dawes could end up as good as St. Louis. I just think it's a much bigger longshot than you.

While it's way too early to know, I like Dubinsky better than Dawes off the limited I've seen to date.