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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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08-26-2007, 01:55 PM
  #1
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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

Apologies to LT if he didn't want me posting this here, but I thought this was a spectacular post sure to generate some discussion here:

http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2007/08...mrie-role.html

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08-26-2007, 01:59 PM
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I'm so sick of all the Schremp and Lowe bashing. Why does Lowetide hate Rob Schremp and the Oilers?

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08-26-2007, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
I'm so sick of all the Schremp and Lowe bashing. Why does Lowetide hate Rob Schremp and the Oilers?
I assume you're saying this facetiously or sarcastically?

FTR, I agree with a lot of what LT is saying.

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08-26-2007, 02:06 PM
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Nope, just tired of how Lowetide no longer has anything good to say about the Oilers. It's a series of disgusting acts and I'm embarrassed that I see it over my bandwidth.

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08-26-2007, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
Nope, just tired of how Lowetide no longer has anything good to say about the Oilers. It's a series of disgusting acts and I'm embarrassed that I see it over my bandwidth.
Your use of hyperbole in your wording leads me to believe otherwise, but I'll take your word for it.

At any rate, so goes the ebb and flow of the Oiligosphere. Valleys are often followed by peaks, and vice versa.

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08-26-2007, 02:13 PM
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Different players, different leagues, different years. IMO Schremp's up-side is higher than Comrie's. Comrie was babied with Smyth and Carter as his linemates, Schremp had Bonvie for the majority of the season on his line. How about the author show us what Schremp's numbers would look when he had a real offensive linemate in Nilsson last year??? Comrie was also babied due to his large contract and the fact that we had no other solid offensive option down the middle. Schremp was continuously being forced to learn other aspects of his game to play at the AHL level on one of the 3 best teams in the league. I will also go somewhere that few others have, coaching. Comrie had legendary coach Red Berensen, while Schremp had Dale Hunter. IMO Hunter isn't a very good coach in terms of teaching an all-around game (great for racking up the PP points though). This is one reason that I feel that Gagner will not be ready at 20 either. How about we compare Parise's numbers in his rookie year to Comrie's and see where they stand??? It'd be very close to Robbie's, and we all know who 90+% of us would rather have between ZP and MC.

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08-26-2007, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Different players, different leagues, different years. IMO Schremp's up-side is higher than Comrie's. Comrie was babied with Smyth and Carter as his linemates, Schremp had Bonvie for the majority of the season on his line. How about the author show us what Schremp's numbers would look when he had a real offensive linemate in Nilsson last year??? Comrie was also babied due to his large contract and the fact that we had no other solid offensive option down the middle.
I agree here. These factors do tend to play down Schremp's contributions and exaggerate Comrie's slightly. I've brought these issues up with LT before and he's acknowledged them in our conversations. If he sees this thread and this post I'm sure he'll respond here as well.

Quote:
Schremp was continuously being forced to learn other aspects of his game to play at the AHL level on one of the 3 best teams in the league. I will also go somewhere that few others have, coaching. Comrie had legendary coach Red Berensen, while Schremp had Dale Hunter. IMO Hunter isn't a very good coach in terms of teaching an all-around game (great for racking up the PP points though). This is one reason that I feel that Gagner will not be ready at 20 either. How about we compare Parise's numbers in his rookie year to Comrie's and see where they stand??? It'd be very close to Robbie's, and we all know who 90+% of us would rather have between ZP and MC.
Good points. I think LT's main message is that Schremp is probably (likely) not ready this season for full time or even part time employment in the NHL with PP shifts. As a replacement option for Horcoff et al., he'll deliver less at ES and on the PP.

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08-26-2007, 02:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
Nope, just tired of how Lowetide no longer has anything good to say about the Oilers. It's a series of disgusting acts and I'm embarrassed that I see it over my bandwidth.
Even if you are being sarcastic, IMO LT hasn't showed much joy for the Oil of late. We've added Pitkanen, Souray, Penner, Garon, Sanderson, and Tarnstrom, yet many aren't willing to give these guys a chance to shine, they're all expecting them to become this years Joffrey Lupul's. I know that many have dived head first into a strictly statistical analysis of the game and its players, but IMO some of those fans have forgotten the pure joy of being a fan. The joy of celebrating a tying goal with less than 1 minute left in a game, or an OT winner. IMO the SCF's run has really put a damper on many fans spirits, because now it's expected. I can understand the dislike of a few players, but for some on this board they dis-like more players on the team than they like. Keep up with the analysis, but get back to being a fan first.

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08-26-2007, 02:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I agree here. These factors do tend to play down Schremp's contributions and exaggerate Comrie's slightly. I've brought these issues up with LT before and he's acknowledged them in our conversations. If he sees this thread and this post I'm sure he'll respond here as well.



Good points. I think LT's main message is that Schremp is probably (likely) not ready this season for full time or even part time employment in the NHL with PP shifts. As a replacement option for Horcoff et al., he'll deliver less at ES and on the PP.
My issue is that someone feels that they can predict a players developmental curve because of 1 season by not taking into account linemates, level of competition on their own team, etc. It's people with similar beliefs that don't want Penner on their team because he's still an un-known commodity due to his less than ordinary path to the NHL as a top 6 player. IMO it is what it is, you can sometimes correctly predict the path of a player, but for every predictable player, there's a Jarret Stoll that exceeds most people's expectations, or another player that just tanks and goes off the radar (Rita, who I personally wasn't that high on).

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08-26-2007, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I agree here. These factors do tend to play down Schremp's contributions and exaggerate Comrie's slightly. I've brought these issues up with LT before and he's acknowledged them in our conversations. If he sees this thread and this post I'm sure he'll respond here as well.



Good points. I think LT's main message is that Schremp is probably (likely) not ready this season for full time or even part time employment in the NHL with PP shifts. As a replacement option for Horcoff et al., he'll deliver less at ES and on the PP.
At ES??? Sure, on the PP??? I beg to differ. Robbie's stats were also due to him being on the 2nd PP unit while in the coaches dog-house. If he played on the top unit all year long, his PP stats would be much better, and IMO the fact that he can actually add a shot from the RW boards would make him at the very least more multi-dimensional than Horc on the PP.

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08-26-2007, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
My issue is that someone feels that they can predict a players developmental curve because of 1 season by not taking into account linemates, level of competition, etc. It's people with similar beliefs that don't want Penner on their team because he's still an un-known commodity due to his less than ordinary path to the NHL as a top 6 player. IMO it is what it is, you can sometimes correctly predict the path of a player, but for every predictable player, there's a Jarret Stoll that exceeds most people's expectations, or another player that just tanks and goes off the radar (Rita, who I personally wasn't that high on).
Most predictions are by nature an inexact quantity. Personally, I group all of it (stats, observation, Desjardins, gut feelings, etc.) into speculation -- now being a science-oriented guy I lean towards "trusting" the stats more but I realize there is also a place for the more subjective observation in predicting any player's future performance.

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08-26-2007, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Different players, different leagues, different years. IMO Schremp's up-side is higher than Comrie's. Comrie was babied with Smyth and Carter as his linemates, Schremp had Bonvie for the majority of the season on his line. How about the author show us what Schremp's numbers would look when he had a real offensive linemate in Nilsson last year??? Comrie was also babied due to his large contract and the fact that we had no other solid offensive option down the middle. Schremp was continuously being forced to learn other aspects of his game to play at the AHL level on one of the 3 best teams in the league. I will also go somewhere that few others have, coaching. Comrie had legendary coach Red Berensen, while Schremp had Dale Hunter. IMO Hunter isn't a very good coach in terms of teaching an all-around game (great for racking up the PP points though). This is one reason that I feel that Gagner will not be ready at 20 either. How about we compare Parise's numbers in his rookie year to Comrie's and see where they stand??? It'd be very close to Robbie's, and we all know who 90+% of us would rather have between ZP and MC.
QFT!

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08-26-2007, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
At ES??? Sure, on the PP??? I beg to differ. Robbie's stats were also due to him being on the 2nd PP unit while in the coaches dog-house. If he played on the top unit all year long, his PP stats would be much better, and IMO the fact that he can actually add a shot from the RW boards would make him at the very least more multi-dimensional than Horc on the PP.
I think LT's partially accounted for that by inflating Schremp's PP minutes in his prediction. One thing that he may have not been able to account for is the potential non-linear relationship between an increase in PP ice-time (and better linemates) and an increase in PP points. (I could be wrong on that, but I think it's fair.)

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08-26-2007, 02:33 PM
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Schremp will make the NHL "if and when" he can play better defensively. His skating is also not at an NHL level (even though he has improved, but obviously with his injury that will be a huge hurdle this year)

In the NHL exhibition games he played, he looked good early but as the competition got better (in other words more NHL calibre players) he looked out of place and his PP attributes and moves were not as effective.

This has nothing to do with MacT as he has been benched or had limited ice time on many teams, including last year.

IMO Schremp has a great attitude and knows what he has to do to make it at the NHL level but his one-dimensional game that he has shown in the past will not be enough to make it to the NHL.

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08-26-2007, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I think LT's partially accounted for that by inflating Schremp's PP minutes in his prediction. One thing that he may have not been able to account for is the potential non-linear relationship between an increase in PP ice-time (and better linemates) and an increase in PP points. (I could be wrong on that, but I think it's fair.)
And the fact that he'll be a year older and has a full year of pro experience under his belt??? IMO his discussion is based on what Schremp may have done last year (still flawed IMO, but as you've said it isn't a perfect science). But it is no longer last year, we are a short time from a new year, one in which the stats haven't begun to pile up, and one in which no one has touched the ice in a game that means anything yet.

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08-26-2007, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
And the fact that he'll be a year older and has a full year of pro experience under his belt??? IMO his discussion is based on what Schremp may have done last year (still flawed IMO, but as you've said it isn't a perfect science). But it is no longer last year, we are a short time from a new year, one in which the stats haven't begun to pile up, and one in which no one has touched the ice in a game that means anything yet.
Fair statement.

But is is also fair to say that he has significant issues that have resulted in his benching in every level of play and a significant injury that will effect his skating (already a weakness)

I think it may be a hard year for Schremp. That injury is going to be a huge obstacle.

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08-26-2007, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
And the fact that he'll be a year older and has a full year of pro experience under his belt??? IMO his discussion is based on what Schremp may have done last year (still flawed IMO, but as you've said it isn't a perfect science). But it is no longer last year, we are a short time from a new year, one in which the stats haven't begun to pile up, and one in which no one has touched the ice in a game that means anything yet.
Another good point -- but the basis of prediction is using previous stats and observations to try to guess future performance. All speculation is based, in some part, on what happened in the past.

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08-26-2007, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Schremp will make the NHL "if and when" he can play better defensively. His skating is also not at an NHL level (even though he has improved, but obviously with his injury that will be a huge hurdle this year)

In the NHL exhibition games he played, he looked good early but as the competition got better (in other words more NHL calibre players) he looked out of place and his PP attributes and moves were not as effective.

This has nothing to do with MacT as he has been benched or had limited ice time on many teams, including last year.

IMO Schremp has a great attitude and knows what he has to do to make it at the NHL level but his one-dimensional game that he has shown in the past will not be enough to make it to the NHL.
Agreed, but IMO this year that won't be as big of a hurdle since he now has a full year against pro's and had a 1 game glimpse of the NHL game at it's 2nd highest level (just prior to the play-offs). That IMO shouldn't be nearly as much of an issue this year. IMO if his knee is healthy enough, he will light up pre-season and at the very least show the coaches that he can be an offensive contributor if needed later on in the year or if an injury occurs. Last year he was nearly a PPG player in pre-season despite not playing his best or having a clue defensively, at the very least he'll be a hell of a lot better this year than he was last year.

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08-26-2007, 02:41 PM
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Fair statement.

But is is also fair to say that he has significant issues that have resulted in his benching in every level of play and a significant injury that will effect his skating (already a weakness)

I think it may be a hard year for Schremp. That injury is going to be a huge obstacle.
Agreed, his injury is a HUGE factor in all of this. If he's un-healthy, his performance will certainly lack in comparison to being healthy. That again is something that is out of our hands, he could either heal well, or just as easilly re-aggrivate the injury. That is all out of our hands, but must be factored in accordingly.

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08-26-2007, 02:42 PM
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Another good point -- but the basis of prediction is using previous stats and observations to try to guess future performance. All speculation is based, in some part, on what happened in the past.
Yes, until we see him again against NHL competition we are speculating and his coaches have mentioned he has improved on his game.

The biggest question in my mind is the injury, IMO he takes a step back this year because of that (and it may not be fair to judge him until he has fully recovered)

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08-26-2007, 02:43 PM
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Another good point -- but the basis of prediction is using previous stats and observations to try to guess future performance. All speculation is based, in some part, on what happened in the past.
For arguements sake, what was Dejardins projections for Schremp in the AHL and NHL last year based on his final season in Junior???

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08-26-2007, 02:43 PM
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Yes, until we see him again against NHL competition we are speculating and his coaches have mentioned he has improved on his game.

The biggest question in my mind is the injury, IMO he takes a step back this year because of that (and it may not be fair to judge him until he has fully recovered)
This I can agree with whole heartedly.

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08-26-2007, 02:46 PM
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Nope, just tired of how Lowetide no longer has anything good to say about the Oilers. It's a series of disgusting acts and I'm embarrassed that I see it over my bandwidth.
yes he does--I just went 12 rounds with him

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08-26-2007, 02:48 PM
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For arguements sake, what was Dejardins projections for Schremp in the AHL and NHL last year based on his final season in Junior???
I'm not sure you can project AHL numbers using Desjardins. I think it's a NHL equivalency scale. From this post by LT, 63 points in the NHL based on his last junior season, with the caveat that he was almost certainly playing close to 30 minutes a game for Hunter.

If you're making the point that Desjardins' has its limitations, I'd agree. Changes in ice-time and quality of opposition a player faces from year to year as he makes his through junior into the NHL do tend to make this an inexact science. Still, it's one of the few scales we have to go on.

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08-26-2007, 04:54 PM
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While it is a great article by Lowetide, and I too see a resemblance between Mike Comrie and Rob Schremp, I have to ask, how does someone get so much spare time on their hands to write such a detailed article and why?

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