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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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Old
08-26-2007, 05:12 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I'm not sure you can project AHL numbers using Desjardins. I think it's a NHL equivalency scale. From this post by LT, 63 points in the NHL based on his last junior season, with the caveat that he was almost certainly playing close to 30 minutes a game for Hunter.

If you're making the point that Desjardins' has its limitations, I'd agree. Changes in ice-time and quality of opposition a player faces from year to year as he makes his through junior into the NHL do tend to make this an inexact science. Still, it's one of the few scales we have to go on.
I don't see why you couldn't use Desjardins to determine AHL numbers from junior, but it's not used to create a prediction for future performance. What the Desjardins numbers are used to define is, if a player was given the same icetime, and role at the same age in another league, what his point totals likely would've been.

So to answer BBO's question, Desjardins didn't predict anything, because that's not what the site is used for.

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08-26-2007, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I don't see why you couldn't use Desjardins to determine AHL numbers from junior, but it's not used to create a prediction for future performance. What the Desjardins numbers are used to define is, if a player was given the same icetime, and role at the same age in another league, what his point totals likely would've been.

So to answer BBO's question, Desjardins didn't predict anything, because that's not what the site is used for.
Yes, this is what I mean. The word projection is perhaps a misnomer (although I tend to use that differently than predict) -- it's an equivalency marker, to see what the point totals in one league would be in the NHL in any given year.

I'm not aware of the equivalency factor/coefficient for junior to AHL, though. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I just haven't seen it used before.

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08-26-2007, 05:26 PM
  #28
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This thread is a moot point..

when LT obviously forgot Schremp played with Bonvie on his wing for pretty much the full year.

Good effort but nothing but speculation.

Predicting Schremp's future by looking at Comrie's stats is no better then predicting Penner's from looking at John Leclair's.

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08-26-2007, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I'm not aware of the equivalency factor/coefficient for junior to AHL, though. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I just haven't seen it used before.
I don't know if there is one either, but they both have an NHL equivalent, so you should be able to figure it out just by converting the junior number to and NHL number, then work backwards from there to determine the AHL number. Of course, Schremp's icetime in junior was so inflated, that it throws off anything you could determine using desjardins because he'll never get the same icetime in any other league on any other team.

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08-26-2007, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
when LT obviously forgot Schremp played with Bonvie on his wing for pretty much the full year.

Good effort but nothing but speculation.

Predicting Schremp's future by looking at Comrie's stats is no better then predicting Penner's from looking at John Leclair's.
But of course Comrie would've had the same success by having Bonvie on his line instead of Carter and Smyth, hell even at the AHL level with Bonvie on his line, un-less you are a true game breaker, how are you going to pile up a bunch of points with the truest version of a goon with minimal skill??? It'd be like giving Cogs Flinn on his line all year. His speed would make it a bit easier for him than it was for Schremp last year with Bonvie, but hardly a good way to judge a players offensive potential while playing with talented players. When Schremp and Nilsson were together a few players benefitted greatly by playing with them. Filewich was there the majority of the time, but James also had a good little string with them including the game where Nilsson almost single handedly lead WBS to a victory late in a game. In a minimal time with Christensen, Schremp made some big plays early in the year by setting up and springing the fleet of foot Christensen. Truth be told, Schremp had piss poor linemates for about 65-70% of the season, when he didn't, he produced.

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08-26-2007, 05:40 PM
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Nope, just tired of how Lowetide no longer has anything good to say about the Oilers. It's a series of disgusting acts and I'm embarrassed that I see it over my bandwidth.
Well said.

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08-26-2007, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I don't know if there is one either, but they both have an NHL equivalent, so you should be able to figure it out just by converting the junior number to and NHL number, then work backwards from there to determine the AHL number. Of course, Schremp's icetime in junior was so inflated, that it throws off anything you could determine using desjardins because he'll never get the same icetime in any other league on any other team.
Not sure about the conversion validity -- it would work if ceteris paribus, but there may be other external factors involved which would make such a conversion inaccurate (relatively speaking for accuracy as far as these things go).

And I agree totally with the icetime statement.

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08-26-2007, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I don't know if there is one either, but they both have an NHL equivalent, so you should be able to figure it out just by converting the junior number to and NHL number, then work backwards from there to determine the AHL number. Of course, Schremp's icetime in junior was so inflated, that it throws off anything you could determine using desjardins because he'll never get the same icetime in any other league on any other team.
My pet peeve here is that when you use numbers to hypothesise the future (and stand firmly by your statement) and then back away from other numbers because of other factors while not allowing other factors to determine your first assessment, it leaves me wondering why they only pick and choose the info that paints the picture best for their arguement???

Schremp Facts...

Schremp was on a split affiliation that had an abundance of skilled forwards that were older than him.

Schremp's defensive game and grit weren't up to the coaches standards, so he was benched a few times and was a HS for 6 times.

Schremp played with Bonvie on his line for the majority of the season.

Schremp was on the 2nd PP unit the majority of the time that MAP was in WBS at the same time as Schremp.

When placed on lines with skilled players, Schremp averaged roughly 1PPG (35 games, 36 points).

Schremp played his best hockey in his last 20 games of the season.

Schremp had nearly as many points at ES as he did on the PP despite many questioning his offense at ES even at the AHL level.

Comrie Facts

Comrie was seen as a great young talent that was tearing up the WHL after he used the Van Ryn out-clause from college.

Comrie had a HUGE contract at that time for a non-1st round draft choice due to his leverage (he had Lowe over a barrel and he knew it).

At the price that he was paid, playing in the AHL would've looked very bad for Oilers management after coughing up so much loot.

Comrie took our 2 best offensive wingers from our top line center and was spoon fed easy minutes while the Weight and Marchant lines took on the "big boys", I remember Horc being on Weight's wing, but fail to remember who the other winger was.

Comrie started out amazingly slow before picking it up after awhile, Schremp never had the opportuinty to start slow and grow into any role other than Bonvie's caddy.

Our offensive depth down the middle was absolute CRAP when we signed Comrie, don't believe me??? Weight, Marchant, Kilger (later traded), Pittis, and Swanson were our other centers that year. Hardly anything like Horcoff, Stoll, Pouliot, Reasoner, and Sykora offensively. bolded players are/were AHL caliber

Doug Weight was an up-coming UFA and we had no-one to fill in as an offensive center, basically forcing the Oilers to throw Comrie into the fire and to learn waht he could under Weight.


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08-26-2007, 05:50 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
My pet peeve here is that when you use numbers to hypothesise the future (and stand firmly by your statement) and then back away from other numbers because of other factors while not allowing other factors to determine your first assessment it leaves me wondering why they only pick and choose the info that paints the picture best for their arguement???
Unfortunately everyone is guilty of this to a certain degree. Unless some Oiler fan out there has the time and resources to do a meta-analysis of all the Schremp analyses out there to rule out the outliers, confirm consistency, homogeneity, and coherence, everything out there will always contain a certain degree of bias.

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08-26-2007, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Unfortunately everyone is guilty of this to a certain degree. Unless some Oiler fan out there has the time and resources to do a meta-analysis of all the Schremp analyses out there to rule out the outliers, confirm consistency, homogeneity, and coherence, everything out there will always contain a certain degree of bias.
What ever happened to just watching the player play?

I see the same thing in Horcoff debate's. Since when did stats spreadsheets become a best instrument to measure a players value/future/ect

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08-26-2007, 06:02 PM
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Even if you are being sarcastic, IMO LT hasn't showed much joy for the Oil of late. We've added Pitkanen, Souray, Penner, Garon, Sanderson, and Tarnstrom, yet many aren't willing to give these guys a chance to shine, they're all expecting them to become this years Joffrey Lupul's. I know that many have dived head first into a strictly statistical analysis of the game and its players, but IMO some of those fans have forgotten the pure joy of being a fan. The joy of celebrating a tying goal with less than 1 minute left in a game, or an OT winner. IMO the SCF's run has really put a damper on many fans spirits, because now it's expected. I can understand the dislike of a few players, but for some on this board they dis-like more players on the team than they like. Keep up with the analysis, but get back to being a fan first.
Agreed. Stats can be very useful tools but when you base everything on stats and nothing but stats I see not much reason to even bother with the sport. I think it was Master Lok that said stats are most useful and best used to dissect what has already happened and not so much for the use of predicting the future. We seen that kind of thing with Stoll projections (and the fact we should expect the same any time in the near future) and then he suddenly turned a corner last year and was thriving against tough opposition and stats would never have told you that was going to happen ahead of time just like they do not take into account injuries, playing injured, line mate slumps, guys being snake bitten and so on and so forth. I definitely use stats myself but they can kill one's pure love and enjoyment of the game if they obsessed over and over used.

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08-26-2007, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
What ever happened to just watching the player play?

I see the same thing in Horcoff debate's. Since when did stats spreadsheets become a best instrument to measure a players value/future/ect
I never said they were the best. As I posted earlier, I group all of that stuff (stats and observation) into speculation -- since I'm science-oriented I tend to have a natural bias towards/for stats, but I can appreciate watching the game.

After all, that's really most of what a fan does!

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08-26-2007, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
What ever happened to just watching the player play?

I see the same thing in Horcoff debate's. Since when did stats spreadsheets become a best instrument to measure a players value/future/ect
I don't know Traktor, I guess we're a dying breed. I am a big fan of Horc, and always believed that he would one day become a great 2-way 2nd line center (ask Matts or any old-timers on oilfans and they'll tell you that I was always a HUGE Horc supporter) and the same people that told me then that he'd be no better than a 3rd liner or wouldn't even make the NHL are now the same type's of guys that love him, and thinks that he's the best thing since sliced bread.

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08-26-2007, 06:08 PM
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Agreed. Stats can be very useful tools but when you base everything on stats and nothing but stats I see not much reason to even bother with the sport. I think it was Master Lok that said stats are most useful and best used to dissect what has already happened and not so much for the use of predicting the future. We seen that kind of thing with Stoll projections (and the fact we should expect the same any time in the near future) and then he suddenly turned a corner last year and was thriving against tough opposition and stats would never have told you that was going to happen ahead of time just like they do not take into account injuries, playing injured, line mate slumps, guys being snake bitten and so on and so forth. I definitely use stats myself but they can kill one's pure love and enjoyment of the game if they obsessed over and over used.
Or how about just flat out not getting the same opportunities as others??? Everyone said that Torres and Stoll blew at ES against tough opposition, and said the same about Getzlaf this year. If you've never been given a kick at that particular cat, how do you know that they won't kick that cat square in the mid-section, Vs. missing the cat and falling on their ***??? (PS-did I mention that for the most part I don't like cats??? )

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08-26-2007, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I don't know Traktor, I guess we're a dying breed. I am a big fan of Horc, and always believed that he would one day become a great 2-way 2nd line center (ask Matts or any old-timers on oilfans and they'll tell you that I was always a HUGE Horc supporter) and the same people that told me then that he'd be no better than a 3rd liner or wouldn't even make the NHL are now the same type's of guys that love him, and thinks that he's the best thing since sliced bread.
I don't know BBO, I think it's a bit unfair to generalize every "stat-head" in this manner. There are certainly those that fit your description, but there are others who have always stuck by their arguments and have admitted defeat (or at least acknowledged their previous opinion) when they were wrong. There are yet others who choose to take the stat analyses to mix with their own observations and gut feelings to form their opinions about a player.

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08-26-2007, 06:10 PM
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I never said they were the best. As I posted earlier, I group all of that stuff (stats and observation) into speculation -- since I'm science-oriented I tend to have a natural bias towards/for stats, but I can appreciate watching the game.

After all, that's really most of what a fan does!
I wasn't accusing you, sorry if you took it that way. You just had a good quote that my quote fit in well with.

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08-26-2007, 06:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I never said they were the best. As I posted earlier, I group all of that stuff (stats and observation) into speculation -- since I'm science-oriented I tend to have a natural bias towards/for stats, but I can appreciate watching the game.

After all, that's really most of what a fan does!
I guess I must now start my vigorous Cane Spider breeding progran, 10 males and 20 females worth of broods coming up Cloned!!!)

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08-26-2007, 06:12 PM
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I guess I must now start my vigorous Cane Spider breeding progran, 10 males and 20 females worth of broods coming up Cloned!!!)
1 male for every 2 females? I never knew spiders were that... open about their relationships.

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08-26-2007, 06:12 PM
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I don't know BBO, I think it's a bit unfair to generalize every "stat-head" in this manner. There are certainly those that fit your description, but there are others who have always stuck by their arguments and have admitted defeat (or at least acknowledged their previous opinion) when they were wrong. There are yet others who choose to take the stat analyses to mix with their own observations and gut feelings to form their opinions about a player.
And those are the guys that have the best of both worlds and are likely the ones with the most reserched and respected opinions.

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08-26-2007, 06:12 PM
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I wasn't accusing you, sorry if you took it that way. You just had a good quote that my quote fit in well with.
No problem.

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08-26-2007, 06:13 PM
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And those are the guys that have the best of both worlds and are likely the ones with the most reserched and respected opinions.
I try my best to be in that category.

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08-26-2007, 06:15 PM
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1 male for every 2 females? I never knew spiders were that... open about their relationships.
Hey, maybe now you may start to respect the world of insects and arachinds!!! I actually raise fish and some of those lucky ******** have a harem of females for every male!!!

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08-26-2007, 06:15 PM
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The Desjardins' equivalency is as has been described perfectly by misfit. All other points have been made handsomely by Cloned, so there isn't much for me to add.

For those who are interested, Desjardins did publish a junior to AHL equivalency in (I believe) 2004. Those numbers are .45(OHL), .43(WHL) and .41 (QMJHL). This was based on over 700 players going from one league to the other, and is (imo) by far the most credible junior/college to pro "line in the sand" available.

As an aside: if you don't believe this stuff, why bother? How I choose to spend my time should be of little or no interest to anyone. For those who ask me from time to time why I don't post here much anymore, this thread is the answer.

HF isn't really interested in this stuff, so I don't post it.

One final thing: Rob Schremp is not my cup of java as a hockey player, but if he makes it I'll cheer like hell. I didn't like Marc Andre Bergeron either, ended up being one of my favorites.

He doesn't look like a guy who can win you hockey games. Folks, that isn't my fault.

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08-26-2007, 06:15 PM
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I try my best to be in that category.
Try harder!!!!!

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08-26-2007, 06:17 PM
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I don't know Traktor, I guess we're a dying breed. I am a big fan of Horc, and always believed that he would one day become a great 2-way 2nd line center (ask Matts or any old-timers on oilfans and they'll tell you that I was always a HUGE Horc supporter) and the same people that told me then that he'd be no better than a 3rd liner or wouldn't even make the NHL are now the same type's of guys that love him, and thinks that he's the best thing since sliced bread.
Just imagine the crow that you can serve out if your right about Schremp. Pretty much everyone around the main board thinks he is trash right now after looking up his stats on hockeydb.com

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