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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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Old
08-26-2007, 06:21 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
The Desjardins' equivalency is as has been described perfectly by misfit. All other points have been made handsomely by Cloned, so there isn't much for me to add.

For those who are interested, Desjardins did publish a junior to AHL equivalency in (I believe 2004. Those numbers are .45(OHL), .43(WHL) and .41 (QMJHL). This was based on over 700 players going from one league to the other, and is (imo) by far the most credible junior/college to pro "line in the sand" available.

As an aside: if you don't believe this stuff, why bother? How I choose to spend my time should be of little or no interest to anyone. For those who ask me from time to time why I don't post here much anymore, this thread is the answer.

HF isn't really interested in this stuff, so I don't post it.

One final thing: Rob Schremp is not my cup of java as a hockey player, but if he makes it I'll cheer like hell. I didn't like Marc Andre Bergeron either, ended up being one of my favorites.

He doesn't look like a guy who can win you hockey games. Folks, that isn't my fault.
Is it possibly your fault that that is your perception??? That is your opinion, and I respect it, however you are a big fan of MAP and Trukhno, I am a fair fan of MAP and Trukhno is all but an un-known to me at this point, however MAP should be the guy that you are focusing on, he's from the best draft class in the last 10 years and he has yet to cement himself as anything more than a 3rd or 4th liner. Recently his conditioning at camp has been questioned. So for someone that likely doesn't like Schremp due to his lack of work ethic, what does this say about MAP??? He's obviously more refined and a more complete player, but to be an elite 2-way player you must have a tire-less work ethic. MAP needs to grab a job by the horns now before he's tarde fodder.

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08-26-2007, 06:21 PM
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Hey, maybe now you may start to respect the world of insects and arachinds!!! I actually raise fish and some of those lucky ******** have a harem of females for every male!!!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
The Desjardins' equivalency is as has been described perfectly by misfit. All other points have been made handsomely by Cloned, so there isn't much for me to add.

For those who are interested, Desjardins did publish a junior to AHL equivalency in (I believe 2004). Those numbers are .45(OHL), .43(WHL) and .41 (QMJHL). This was based on over 700 players going from one league to the other, and is (imo) by far the most credible junior/college to pro "line in the sand" available.

As an aside: if you don't believe this stuff, why bother? How I choose to spend my time should be of little or no interest to anyone. For those who ask me from time to time why I don't post here much anymore, this thread is the answer.

HF isn't really interested in this stuff, so I don't post it.

One final thing: Rob Schremp is not my cup of java as a hockey player, but if he makes it I'll cheer like hell. I didn't like Marc Andre Bergeron either, ended up being one of my favorites.

He doesn't look like a guy who can win you hockey games. Folks, that isn't my fault.
I'm disappointed that this stuff isn't being posted more often here, but I understand the reasoning behind the dropoff. Still, it's sad to hear it.

I didn't know about the AHL equivalency -- that's a new one. Thanks for the info.

And your note on Schremp not being your cup of java is timely. I've been trying to communicate the idea that all of this prediction stuff is opinion -- it can be supported by statistics or observation but in the end it is only an opinion.

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08-26-2007, 06:23 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
Just imagine the crow that you can serve out if your right about Schremp. Pretty much everyone around the main board thinks he is trash right now after looking up his stats on hockeydb.com
IMO it'd make up for my ridiculous over hyping that I did the last year or 2 prior. IMO sooner or later, there will be a lot of people that will eat some serious crap when it comes to Schremp.

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08-26-2007, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
IMO it'd make up for my ridiculous over hyping that I did the last year or 2 prior. IMO sooner or later, there will be a lot of people that will eat some serious crap when it comes to Schremp.
FTR, I'm in between a lot of the polar opinions on him. I think he'll be a solid complementary player on a winning team - a PP specialist who can play on the 2nd line and not look out of place. I don't think he'll ever be a gamebreaker at ES, though.

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08-26-2007, 06:28 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
As an aside: if you don't believe this stuff, why bother? How I choose to spend my time should be of little or no interest to anyone. For those who ask me from time to time why I don't post here much anymore, this thread is the answer.

HF isn't really interested in this stuff, so I don't post it.
I agree that how you spend your time is between you and your family, and that anyone that says otherwise should seriously refrain from opening their mouth for awhile. However I also believe that many that no longer post here don't want to hear the other side of the coin. I'm sure that you are heavilly respected on your blog, and that many that join share similar opinions. However why not get feedback from those that may not??? If all there is is yes maam's or Yes sirs that continually pat your back and agree with you, what's the gain in that??? Differing opinions makes all of us think in different ways and opens our eyes to different opinions. That's what makes HF my favorite place to post.

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08-26-2007, 06:29 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Is it possibly your fault that that is your perception??? That is your opinion, and I respect it, however you are a big fan of MAP and Trukhno, I am a fair fan of MAP and Trukhno is all but an un-known to me at this point, however MAP should be the guy that you are focusing on, he's from the best draft class in the last 10 years and he has yet to cement himself as anything more than a 3rd or 4th liner. Recently his conditioning at camp has been questioned. So for someone that likely doesn't like Schremp due to his lack of work ethic, what does this say about MAP??? He's obviously more refined and a more complete player, but to be an elite 2-way player you must have a tire-less work ethic. MAP needs to grab a job by the horns now before he's tarde fodder.
It's my fault that I drink too much beer. My perception of Rob Schremp is what it is. Hey, I wish he'd worked harder that summer he didn't and I wish his stride was like Paul Coffey's, but if wishes were horses then beggars would ride.

As for Pouliot, I like him fine.

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08-26-2007, 06:31 PM
  #57
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How are you and s7ark and Guy Flaming not at that point yet BBO? I mean, the expectation (at least for you and s7ark; my issues with Guy are more to do with where Schremp was on the prospect rankings) was that Schremp would be in the NHL and helping the PP last year was it not? We're now looking at year two where he doesn't make the team out of camp.

Seems to me that saying "Well maybe he'll make it in the future..." doesn't really cut it. As a lot of the naysayers were saying, pro hockey was a huge slap in the face for him. You can whine about him playing with Bonvie all you want but a) I doubt that Bonvie was taking PP time with him and b) I doubt that he was playing with Bonvie all that much - I can't believe Bonvie had anything near a regular ES shift.

It's always the same with the Schrempistas: "US Hockey screwed him, NHL GM's disrespected him, his coaches in London didn't make him play defence, his coach in Wilkes-Barre didn't use him right, MacT doesn't like him..." When is it just "He's not as good as we thought"?

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08-26-2007, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I agree that how you spend your time is between you and your family, and that anyone that says otherwise should seriously refrain from opening their mouth for awhile. However I also believe that many that no longer post here don't want to hear the other side of the coin. I'm sure that you are heavilly respected on your blog, and that many that join share similar opinions. However why not get feedback from those that may not??? If all there is is yes maam's or Yes sirs that continually pat your back and agree with you, what's the gain in that??? Differing opinions makes all of us think in different ways and opens our eyes to different opinions. That's what makes HF my favorite place to post.
I get lots of terrific feedback on my blog. Honest.

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08-26-2007, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
IMO it'd make up for my ridiculous over hyping that I did the last year or 2 prior. IMO sooner or later, there will be a lot of people that will eat some serious crap when it comes to Schremp.
I'm probably in line for some serious Crow too. I've said Gilbert will end up a Wade Redden type player and I'm also pot invested Cogliano, Trukhno and Thoresen.

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08-26-2007, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
What ever happened to just watching the player play?

I see the same thing in Horcoff debate's. Since when did stats spreadsheets become a best instrument to measure a players value/future/ect
also, they tend to dismiss certain stats in favor of the more popularized stats of offensive production. no one ever brings up what Horcoff did last year for takeaways and blocked shots. he was pretty much outstanding for the first line role he was playing on the defensive side with 80 blocked shots.

if he can put up a solid year offensively this year with similar defensive stats... its going to show just how hard working and complete of a player hes becoming. probably should be a Selke candidate if he does.

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08-26-2007, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I agree that how you spend your time is between you and your family, and that anyone that says otherwise should seriously refrain from opening their mouth for awhile. However I also believe that many that no longer post here don't want to hear the other side of the coin. I'm sure that you are heavilly respected on your blog, and that many that join share similar opinions. However why not get feedback from those that may not??? If all there is is yes maam's or Yes sirs that continually pat your back and agree with you, what's the gain in that??? Differing opinions makes all of us think in different ways and opens our eyes to different opinions. That's what makes HF my favorite place to post.
Dennis was on LT from the moment LT said that he liked the return on the Pronger deal. I'm not going to speak for LT here but the reason I rarely post on places like this anymore is that I don't think saying "It's my opinion, so it's valid" is any kind of a basis for a discussion or debate. Schremp is kind of the crystalization of all of that: people, who admit that they rarely see him play, think that he is going to be the greatest thing in the world, despite all evidence to the contrary. They predict 600 goal NHL careers, 2.0 PPG AHL rookie seasons, none of it happens and it doesn't seem to matter. It's mindblowingly dumb, to be quite honest.

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08-26-2007, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CorpseFX View Post
also, they tend to dismiss certain stats in favor of the more popularized stats of offensive production. no one ever brings up what Horcoff did last year for takeaways and blocked shots. he was pretty much outstanding for the first line role he was playing on the defensive side with 80 blocked shots.

if he can put up a solid year offensively this year with similar defensive stats... its going to show just how hard working and complete of a player hes becoming. probably should be a Selke candidate if he does.
Shawn Horcoff is pretty much worshipped by the blogosphere, so you're preaching to the converted.

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08-26-2007, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CorpseFX View Post
also, they tend to dismiss certain stats in favor of the more popularized stats of offensive production. no one ever brings up what Horcoff did last year for takeaways and blocked shots. he was pretty much outstanding for the first line role he was playing on the defensive side with 80 blocked shots.

if he can put up a solid year offensively this year with similar defensive stats... its going to show just how hard working and complete of a player hes becoming. probably should be a Selke candidate if he does.
*** is this? Who are the stats guys who don't like Horcoff?

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08-26-2007, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CorpseFX View Post
also, they tend to dismiss certain stats in favor of the more popularized stats of offensive production. no one ever brings up what Horcoff did last year for takeaways and blocked shots. he was pretty much outstanding for the first line role he was playing on the defensive side with 80 blocked shots.

if he can put up a solid year offensively this year with similar defensive stats... its going to show just how hard working and complete of a player hes becoming. probably should be a Selke candidate if he does.
I think you're confusing the people who take Horcoff's counting numbers and bash him, with the people who look at his contributions to the team at even strength and on the PK and like him.

Most of the "stat-heads" I've seen like (or love) Horc as a player.

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08-26-2007, 06:37 PM
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im basically talking about the people who are ready to trade him and just look at his offensive stats.

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08-26-2007, 06:37 PM
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It's always the same with the Schrempistas: "US Hockey screwed him, NHL GM's disrespected him, his coaches in London didn't make him play defence, his coach in Wilkes-Barre didn't use him right, MacT doesn't like him..." When is it just "He's not as good as we thought"?
Just before he turns into a star on another team!

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08-26-2007, 06:38 PM
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Dennis was on LT from the moment LT said that he liked the return on the Pronger deal. I'm not going to speak for LT here but the reason I rarely post on places like this anymore is that I don't think saying "It's my opinion, so it's valid" is any kind of a basis for a discussion or debate. Schremp is kind of the crystalization of all of that: people, who admit that they rarely see him play, think that he is going to be the greatest thing in the world, despite all evidence to the contrary. They predict 600 goal NHL careers, 2.0 PPG AHL rookie seasons, none of it happens and it doesn't seem to matter. It's mindblowingly dumb, to be quite honest.
If it was unfair to generalize all the "stat-heads", it's just as unfair to generalize all HF posters, imo.

This place may not have been what it once was (and that should be interpreted in both a positive and negative light), but it's still a good place for discussion where the occassional uninformed opinion may be expressed. I would also argue that the crackdown in moderating has also eliminated or reduced a lot of the petty arrogance that was a problem with this board before. At worst, it's better than a lot of the hockey message boards out there.

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08-26-2007, 06:38 PM
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*** is this? Who are the stats guys who don't like Horcoff?
fan perception around the league, nerdy trade "value" posts on this website, etc.

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08-26-2007, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by CorpseFX View Post
fan perception around the league, nerdy trade "value" posts on this website, etc.
Considering most of the stat guys don't even post on here that often anymore, I think you're misplacing the responsibility (blame) for that kind of thing. Read any of the stat blogs and Horcoff is pretty much loved universally.

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08-26-2007, 06:43 PM
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Considering most of the stat guys don't even post on here that often anymore, I think you're misplacing the responsibility (blame) for that kind of thing. Read any of the stat blogs and Horcoff is pretty much loved universally.
haha all i brought horcoff up for was to show another example of how a players "value" and perception gets skewed a million different ways. im not trying to peg this on any blog nerds at all. just example.

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08-26-2007, 06:55 PM
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It's not something I am that interested in (the statistical breakdown as technically as people like Lowetide and Mudcrutch do, there are probably others as well) but that doesn't mean I don't like to read some of the things they post.

As I have said many times people enjoy the great game in different ways and different levels.

I love to watch training camp/pre-season and have a journal of predictions of how I think the players will turn out, what line they will be on, etc, how long it will take them. I have kept that journal for as long as I remember. I have been fairly accurate over the years and have obviously improved on my ratio of predictions over the years. I find it more interesting when I am wrong (especially when they make it and I predicted they would not. What did I miss it? Was the player just a late bloomer? Was it the same type of player?)

I also like to break down the game while I watch it, note trends for certain players.

Others like to analyze and predict stats and break them down and try to create formulas and projections. I find those interesting to read and I like to see how they align with my obversations and I have disagreed with some of the analysis but that does not mean that I don't find it interesting.

Some just want to watch the game and enjoy it.

I don't think any of those types should be discouraged to post or feel uncomfortable posting.

It all adds to the flavour of this board.

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08-26-2007, 07:10 PM
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I personally think Schremp will become a very good player for us. Sure he didn't light it up this year, but this was the 1st year likely in his life that he was ever been challenged playing hockey. The OHL was way to easy for him and let's face it, would you try and work hard at your weaknesses if you are scoring 3 points a night? Last year was tough for him and that will benefit him down the road. Zach Parise went through he same type of thing.

A guy with his hunger and puck skills can become a very good player in this league. Doug Weight wasn't a very good skater IIRC. The Sedin's aren't great skaters. Ryan Smyth isn't a great skater. There are many ways to become a top line player in this league and not all of them involve being a great skater. It would be nice to have, but Schremp has other skills that could get him there even if his skating doesn't.

It may be nothing more then a guy feeling, but I think we have a good player here no matter what the stats say.

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08-26-2007, 07:19 PM
  #73
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Doug Weight wasn't a very good skater If I recall correctly. The Sedin's aren't great skaters. Ryan Smyth isn't a great skater.
To quote Ronald Reagan "There you [Schrempistas] go again..."

When Doug Weight was 20, he scored 3-14-17 in 9 AHL games and 8-22-30 in 53 NHL games. When Daniel Sedin was 20, he scored 20-14-34 in 75 NHL games. When Henrik Sedin was 20, he scored 9-20-29 in 82 NHL games. When Ryan Smyth was 20 he scored 39-22-61 in 82 NHL games. Saying that they're all bad skaters, to the extent that their skating can be lumped together, kind of misses the extremely obvious point that all of them were contributing NHLers at 20.

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08-26-2007, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
To quote Ronald Reagan "There you [Schrempistas] go again..."

When Doug Weight was 20, he scored 3-14-17 in 9 AHL games and 8-22-30 in 53 NHL games. When Daniel Sedin was 20, he scored 20-14-34 in 75 NHL games. When Henrik Sedin was 20, he scored 9-20-29 in 82 NHL games. When Ryan Smyth was 20 he scored 39-22-61 in 82 NHL games. Saying that they're all bad skaters, to the extent that their skating can be lumped together, kind of misses the extremely obvious point that all of them were contributing NHLers at 20.
I know where you're coming from, but at the same time, Schremp's NHLE is 82-10-21-31 at age 20. Of course, he wasn't actually in the NHL like Weight et al. were.

I think he's going to be a good player, just not a gamebreaker type.

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08-26-2007, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
To quote Ronald Reagan "There you [Schrempistas] go again..."

When Doug Weight was 20, he scored 3-14-17 in 9 AHL games and 8-22-30 in 53 NHL games. When Daniel Sedin was 20, he scored 20-14-34 in 75 NHL games. When Henrik Sedin was 20, he scored 9-20-29 in 82 NHL games. When Ryan Smyth was 20 he scored 39-22-61 in 82 NHL games. Saying that they're all bad skaters, to the extent that their skating can be lumped together, kind of misses the extremely obvious point that all of them were contributing NHLers at 20.
I think you kind of missed my point. I wasn't comparing Schremp to these players (who in their right mind would compare him to Smyth)

I was simply making a point that there are many ways to contribute to a top line without being a great skater.

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