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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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Old
08-27-2007, 12:17 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
He's in the NHL at the moment, which is more than you can say for Schremp. You'll also note that when it became clear that he couldn't do it, I acknowledged it and started saying that the Oilers needed better goaltending. What I'm objecting too isn't that you hyped the guy in the first place (although it was way over the top then) but that his lack of results doesn't seem to affect the hype. If I was still saying that the Oilers should run with Conklin, you might have something here.
You say you don't object too him hyping him in the first place yet you object to the fact BBO and many of us still think he could turn out to be a great player?

BBO made it very clear early on last year that his prediction was way off base and he Schremp had alot of work to do esspecially in his own zone. But towards the end of the year he really picked it up and playing aloneside Nilson was instant chemstry.

So because one of our highly ranked prospects with tons of hype didn't start off the way we thought in his first PRO season we should just write him off?

I understand you have your opinion, but why object to others when all there doing is hoping for the best for one of there own. And the hype that some of us built up for him was clearly diminished within the first month last year. So where is all this hype you still object too?

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08-27-2007, 12:18 AM
  #102
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And if he flourishes and becomes the type of player that myself, s7ark, trugq, etc. say that he could be??? Then what??? Will the others say that he was the one to get away after crapping all over him??? Would he be this generations Satan??? Barrie Moore and Craig Millar type of a trade return???
If he flourishes, life goes on and I'd hope the Oilers got something substantial back in return. If they get a Moore/Millar return, that would be annoying but I wouldn't self-immolate myself in front of the legislature over it.

For the record, I am pulling for the kid.

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08-27-2007, 12:23 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
If he flourishes, life goes on and I'd hope the Oilers got something substantial back in return. If they get a Moore/Millar return, that would be annoying but I wouldn't self-immolate myself in front of the legislature over it.

For the record, I am pulling for the kid.


You're the funniest damn poster on here for my money, Digger.

Sacrifice for/to who, though?

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08-27-2007, 12:23 AM
  #104
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i go to alot of wbs penguins games and honestly, i he didnt impress me too much. he wasnt bad but i didnt think he was anything special

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08-27-2007, 12:25 AM
  #105
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When Miro Satan was 20, he played on four different teams. In the 25 games that he did get in with the Oilers affiliate, he went 24-16-40. I'd venture that he had it even harder than poor Robbie did in his age 20 season and he still managed to rip up the AHL.

I'm not saying that you give up on the guy; I doubt that you'd get enough that it would make sense. I'm just saying that the expectations should be dialled WAY back on him. His path to this point indicates that its unlikely that he's going to be the kind of offensive hockey player who wins you games in the NHL; he's far more likely, if he makes it, to be the kind of guy who scores 40-50 points on teams that don't make the playoffs. If you apply the "What if he turns into Satan" standard, you never make a move for anyone. A far less insane standard would seem to be "Are my reasonable expectations that what I'm getting makes winning more likely than what I'm giving up?"

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08-27-2007, 12:31 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
When Miro Satan was 20, he played on four different teams. In the 25 games that he did get in with the Oilers affiliate, he went 24-16-40. I'd venture that he had it even harder than poor Robbie did in his age 20 season and he still managed to rip up the AHL.

I'm not saying that you give up on the guy; I doubt that you'd get enough that it would make sense. I'm just saying that the expectations should be dialled WAY back on him. His path to this point indicates that its unlikely that he's going to be the kind of offensive hockey player who wins you games in the NHL; he's far more likely, if he makes it, to be the kind of guy who scores 40-50 points on teams that don't make the playoffs. If you apply the "What if he turns into Satan" standard, you never make a move for anyone. A far less insane standard would seem to be "Are my reasonable expectations that what I'm getting makes winning more likely than what I'm giving up?"
Even if that is his max potential (I'm actually with you on this, serviceable 2nd line forward with PP skills with about 50 points), it doesn't have to be on a team that doesn't make the playoffs.

Playoff teams are filled with offense-first types like that; you just need to balance them with the more well-rounded players. Examples that come to mind recently include Matt Cullen, Jason Williams, Bryan Smolinski, Steve Heinze, etc.

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08-27-2007, 12:32 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
When Miro Satan was 20, he played on four different teams. In the 25 games that he did get in with the Oilers affiliate, he went 24-16-40. I'd venture that he had it even harder than poor Robbie did in his age 20 season and he still managed to rip up the AHL.

I'm not saying that you give up on the guy; I doubt that you'd get enough that it would make sense. I'm just saying that the expectations should be dialled WAY back on him. His path to this point indicates that its unlikely that he's going to be the kind of offensive hockey player who wins you games in the NHL; he's far more likely, if he makes it, to be the kind of guy who scores 40-50 points on teams that don't make the playoffs. If you apply the "What if he turns into Satan" standard, you never make a move for anyone. A far less insane standard would seem to be "Are my reasonable expectations that what I'm getting makes winning more likely than what I'm giving up?"
And why can't Robbie Schremp help teams win games??? How many horrible turn-overs did he have in his lone game for us last year??? Why is it that the Universally praised MAP had a poor +/- in the AHL yet that gets tossed to teh side, while Schremp had a similar +/- and relied less heavilly on the PP for his points down there than MAP did??? I'm so sick and tired of everyone thinking that a team full of pluggers would win a title. NEWSFLASH, they are usually cheap enough that you could fill a team full of those players and still have cap room. YOU NEED OFFENSE TO WIN GAMES. You need a ballance, and that's something that many seem to forget.

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08-27-2007, 12:34 AM
  #108
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Actually now that I think about it, imo Matt Cullen and Jason Williams are great comps for Schremp with respect to career role and archetype. They may not have taken the same path to the NHL, but I think Schremp's going to end up being a 50 point guy who can play the point on the PP.

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08-27-2007, 12:34 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Even if that is his max potential (I'm actually with you on this, serviceable 2nd line forward with PP skills with about 50 points), it doesn't have to be on a team that doesn't make the playoffs.

Playoff teams are filled with offense-first types like that; you just need to balance them with the more well-rounded players. Examples that come to mind recently include Matt Cullen, Jason Williams, Bryan Smolinski, Steve Heinze, etc.
Horcoff and Marchant have both had 60+ point seasons, so why in God's Green Earth couldn't Robbie??? IMO at the very least he's a 60-65 point threat every year, at best he's a 80-90+ point guy that eats up soft minutes and runs a wicked PP.

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08-27-2007, 12:36 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Marty0wns30 View Post
i go to alot of wbs penguins games and honestly, i he didnt impress me too much. he wasnt bad but i didnt think he was anything special
Thanks for your opinion, what areas of his game did you feel that he needs to work on the most???

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08-27-2007, 12:36 AM
  #111
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Boyes is another one but I was trying to stick to centers who were smallish and considered a bit weak on the puck while they were younger.



Desjardins' is basically an equivalency scale. It takes the point total of a player in a league in any ONE season and then gives what that point total in the SAME season would have been in the NHL. It's mainly useful for comparing different players across different leagues at the same ages by measuring all their point totals with the same NHL equivalency standard.

That said, since all speculation is based on past events, imo one can still use Desjardins to fashion a prediction of future NHL performance by comparing a player's NHLE's throughout his young career to the NHLE's of other "comps" of similar archetypes.
Desjardins would tend to distort favorably to players who are just real happy to be there compared to players that already have NHL expectations. As a bad example Stoll/Torres performance with Roadrunners lockout year(bad cause they were already NHLers) but somewhat illustrates the motivational point.

The type of player who already feels like he's good enough to play in the NHL, but maybe not for the present org, is also less motivated to produce the type #'s that would look good after the Desjardins coefficient.

For some AHL players it might actually make sense to perform just well enough to subsequently sign with another club. The line being playing less than indispensible but good enough to stay on NHL radar..That represents significant distortion and I wonder how much of that goes on.

and then theres guys like Schremp with buckets of talent who are motivationally speaking outliers. Guy could catch lightning if...but to say the probability of that is the same as any other AHLer with similar production is misguided in context of this player. Schremp probability would be greater.

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08-27-2007, 12:38 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Horcoff and Marchant have both had 60+ point seasons, so why in God's Green Earth couldn't Robbie??? IMO at the very least he's a 60-65 point threat every year, at best he's a 80-90+ point guy that eats up soft minutes and runs a wicked PP.
Marchant hit 60 once and hasn't come anywhere close since or before. That was definitely a one-off season.

Horcoff is a much more complete player than Schremp -- he's faster, smart enough, and can play more minutes in more situations and thus the coach will have more confidence in him, in turn leading to greater responsibility, in turn leading to increased icetime, and more points.

I'm not saying Schremp CAN'T hit 60. I'm saying he won't be a consistent 60 point guy.

And don't take that as a slight. For a guy selected 25th overall, a 50 point in-his-prime complementary player is a GOOD thing.

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08-27-2007, 12:40 AM
  #113
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Desjardins would tend to distort favorably to players who are just real happy to be there compared to players that already have NHL expectations. As a bad example Stoll/Torres performance with Roadrunners lockout year(bad cause they were already NHLers) but somewhat illustrates the motivational point.

The type of player who already feels like he's good enough to play in the NHL, but maybe not for the present org, is also less motivated to produce the type #'s that would look good after the Desjardins coefficient.

For some AHL players it might actually make sense to perform just well enough to subsequently sign with another club. That represents distortion.

and then theres guys like Schremp with buckets of talent who are motivationally speaking outliers. Guy could catch lightning if...but to say the probability of that is the same as any other AHLer with similar production is misguided in context of this player.
For sure there are external factors. But anything that has to do with human interaction and agency is going to be impossible to pin down exactly unless someone eventually comes up with a "sociological model in sports" for this. Desjardins' is just a method -- one of many, but one of the better ones imo.

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08-27-2007, 12:41 AM
  #114
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That said, since all speculation is based on past events, imo one can still use Desjardins to fashion a prediction of future NHL performance by comparing a player's NHLE's throughout his young career to the NHLE's of other "comps" of similar archetypes.
So, sticking with Comrie, we can expect to see Schremp show some improvement this year, hold fast the following year, take a big drop, and eventually return to his sophomore levels of production, never to really improve beyond that, at least into his mid/late 20's.

Would Schremp develop/improve at the same rate Comrie did (if Comrie did, I didn't bother with ES 60, 'cause I don't have much time and would rather make my point and return later - if Comrie never improved, is that standard?) if he plays in the AHL this year or the NHL this year? Is it fixed? How does Comrie's pattern of development line up with those of other Comrie/Schremp type players (assuming the comparison is valid)? Is it typical or unique? How has Schremp's personal pattern through other levels of play lined up with Comrie's?

The questions can go on, ad nauseum, as I try to discern exactly what I'm supposed to conclude from this, other than Schremp wasn't NHL-ready last season.

Going back to Boyes, 'cause his stat history window is open and 'cause while they may not be exactly the same, they're of similar size, development path, draft position, and some of the criticisms (skating concerns, iirc with Boyes), etc.... it took him a while before he cracked an NHL-roster, but when he did, he did so at a similar PPG rate (Ev 60, I dunno) than he did in the AHL one season before.

Now, I'm not a Schremp-should-play-now guy. I know he struggled last year, and though he improved towards the end, the injury tempers some of the optimism, and I know that for the scoring spots we have open there are players more likely to earn them and produce in them...


...but reading this analysis, when can we expect Schremp to become an NHL player? Later this season? Next season? Three years from now? Never? What does this analysis conclude about how Schremp is going to play *this* year?

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08-27-2007, 12:41 AM
  #115
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I'm so sick and tired of everyone thinking that a team full of pluggers would win a title.
Nobody thinks that, Bryan. It's just that some of us believe the Oilers have better options for the skill slots. And then there's Cogliano coming. Schremp's window of opportunity is closing, and because he doesn't have as wide a range of skills as a guy like Pouliot there are fewer slots available.

Schremp could end up outscoring Pouliot and not be as valuable. That was certainly the relationship between Horcoff and Comrie when they were teammates.

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08-27-2007, 12:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
Nobody thinks that, Bryan. It's just that some of us believe the Oilers have better options for the skill slots. And then there's Cogliano coming. Schremp's window of opportunity is closing, and because he doesn't have as wide a range of skills as a guy like Pouliot there are fewer slots available.

Schremp could end up outscoring Pouliot and not be as valuable. That was certainly the relationship between Horcoff and Schremp when they were teammates.
Do you mean Horcoff and Comrie?

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08-27-2007, 12:42 AM
  #117
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I see Schremp as a special case. He came out of juniors thinking his offensive game would have been enough to get him a spot in the NHL, not caring about his defensive game.
We saw at the start of the last season he was putting up about a point per game, but he wasn't playing defence. Now which would have been better for him. Richards continues to play him on the top line and top pp unit, he finishes the year with about a PPG, lets say 75 points in 72 games, but he still does know what the hell a defensive zone is even. Or Richards demotes him to the 4th line and lets him bust his a$$ off tell he learns how to play defence (& to Schremps credit I don't remember hearing about him complaining about it), with about 20 games left he starts to put the work in & he gets rewarded by getting to play with Nilsson. Now which Schremps better? The one that looks good on the stats page & has had everything handed to him on a silver platter or the one that has worked through adversity and persevered?

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08-27-2007, 12:43 AM
  #118
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I'm not saying Schremp CAN'T hit 60. I'm saying he won't be a consistent 60 point guy.
Is that based on a mathematical analysis of his statistics and progression, or just your opinion?

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08-27-2007, 12:44 AM
  #119
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Do you mean Horcoff and Comrie?
I fixed it, but you're too quick!

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08-27-2007, 12:45 AM
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Is that based on a mathematical analysis of his statistics and progression, or just your opinion?
It's my opinion.

I've said before in this thread that I'm not a pure stats-guy. I'm science oriented so I tend to have bias towards/for stats, but I also consider my own observations, gut feelings and experiences in forming my opinion.

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08-27-2007, 12:48 AM
  #121
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Nobody thinks that, Bryan. It's just that some of us believe the Oilers have better options for the skill slots. And then there's Cogliano coming. Schremp's window of opportunity is closing, and because he doesn't have as wide a range of skills as a guy like Pouliot there are fewer slots available.

Schremp could end up outscoring Pouliot and not be as valuable. That was certainly the relationship between Horcoff and Comrie when they were teammates.
Comrie IMO never wanted to be "the guy" as evidenced by his wanting to leave Edmonton, Schremp wants to be the guy. IMO that's plenty enough of a reason to think that he will have a better over-all career than Comrie. besides no-one has answered me as to why MAP's +/- was poor in the AHL last year if he was so great at ES???

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08-27-2007, 12:48 AM
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So, sticking with Comrie, we can expect to see Schremp show some improvement this year, hold fast the following year, take a big drop, and eventually return to his sophomore levels of production, never to really improve beyond that, at least into his mid/late 20's.

Would Schremp develop/improve at the same rate Comrie did (if Comrie did, I didn't bother with ES 60, 'cause I don't have much time and would rather make my point and return later - if Comrie never improved, is that standard?) if he plays in the AHL this year or the NHL this year? Is it fixed? How does Comrie's pattern of development line up with those of other Comrie/Schremp type players (assuming the comparison is valid)? Is it typical or unique? How has Schremp's personal pattern through other levels of play lined up with Comrie's?

The questions can go on, ad nauseum, as I try to discern exactly what I'm supposed to conclude from this, other than Schremp wasn't NHL-ready last season.

Going back to Boyes, 'cause his stat history window is open and 'cause while they may not be exactly the same, they're of similar size, development path, draft position, and some of the criticisms (skating concerns, If I recall correctly with Boyes), etc.... it took him a while before he cracked an NHL-roster, but when he did, he did so at a similar PPG rate (Ev 60, I dunno) than he did in the AHL one season before.

Now, I'm not a Schremp-should-play-now guy. I know he struggled last year, and though he improved towards the end, the injury tempers some of the optimism, and I know that for the scoring spots we have open there are players more likely to earn them and produce in them...


...but reading this analysis, when can we expect Schremp to become an NHL player? Later this season? Next season? Three years from now? Never? What does this analysis conclude about how Schremp is going to play *this* year?
I can't really answer your question(s) directly -- the wording of your questions presuppose the answers as facts that *will* happen. Like I said above, I form an opinion based on everything, not just the stats.

My opinion, and it really is only as such, is that Schremp, if he is not traded, might:

-start the season in the minors;
-get called up at certain points;
-eventually make the NHL in a full-time capacity;
-evolve into a 50 point player in his prime;
-be useful as a 2nd line forward with PP skills;
-be a complementary player on a winning team, or a fill-in UFA on a losing team;
-cover the bet for a 25th overall pick

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08-27-2007, 12:51 AM
  #123
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Is that based on a mathematical analysis of his statistics and progression, or just your opinion?
I don't want to speak for Cloned, but I'd say it's fairly obvious that it's his opinion. However, it's based in just as much statistical analysis as the argument for him being a perrenial 60+ point player.

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08-27-2007, 12:53 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
Nobody thinks that, Bryan. It's just that some of us believe the Oilers have better options for the skill slots. And then there's Cogliano coming. Schremp's window of opportunity is closing, and because he doesn't have as wide a range of skills as a guy like Pouliot there are fewer slots available.

Schremp could end up outscoring Pouliot and not be as valuable. That was certainly the relationship between Horcoff and Comrie when they were teammates.
And what has Cogs proven thus far to already toss Schremp under the bus??? Better potentially offensively at ES??? I could go with that (game breaking speed helps in every situation), but IMO he's not the player that Robbie is on the PP, nor does he have as good of a shot, nor IMO is he as good of a passer.

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08-27-2007, 12:54 AM
  #125
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I don't want to speak for Cloned, but I'd say it's fairly obvious that it's his opinion. However, it's based in just as much statistical analysis as the argument for him being a perrenial 60+ point player.
Agreed, but who's to say which is better than the other??? I for one would not.

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