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The Oilers and the 3rd Period

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Old
03-27-2004, 05:51 PM
  #1
igor*
 
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The Oilers and the 3rd Period

Some concern on here about oiler 3rd period meltdowns of late. Personally, I can't get to worried ... seems to me that the Oilers have had as many comebacks as setbacks in the 3rd period this season.

And in the previous two seasons they've been one of the better teams in the league at 3rd period comebacks. Seriously.

Anyhoo ... looking at this season ... and the difference between the score after 40 minutes and after 60 minutes:

The Oilers have come back to gain 16 extra points in the 3rd period. That's 9th best in the league.

The Oilers have blown 6 points between the 2nd intermission and the end of regulation. PHI is the only team who has done better with 5 blown points.

Between 50 & 60 minutes the Oilers are average on the whole. Same as between 55 & 60 minutes. Which IMHO is respectable for such a young team that has had spotty goaltending this season.

OTT, CBJ and N.J are the worst for blowing points late in the game.

My point, and I do have one:
I really don't think that there is a problem to fix. And even if there was ... I cannot fathom how anyone could think that the trap is the answer?

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Old
03-27-2004, 06:17 PM
  #2
IceDragoon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Some concern on here about oiler 3rd period meltdowns of late. Personally, I can't get to worried ... seems to me that the Oilers have had as many comebacks as setbacks in the 3rd period this season.

And in the previous two seasons they've been one of the better teams in the league at 3rd period comebacks. Seriously.

Anyhoo ... looking at this season ... and the difference between the score after 40 minutes and after 60 minutes:

The Oilers have come back to gain 16 extra points in the 3rd period. That's 9th best in the league.

The Oilers have blown 6 points between the 2nd intermission and the end of regulation. PHI is the only team who has done better with 5 blown points.

Between 50 & 60 minutes the Oilers are average on the whole. Same as between 55 & 60 minutes. Which IMHO is respectable for such a young team that has had spotty goaltending this season.

OTT, CBJ and N.J are the worst for blowing points late in the game.

My point, and I do have one:
I really don't think that there is a problem to fix. And even if there was ... I cannot fathom how anyone could think that the trap is the answer?
Thanx for the eye opening perspective, igor.

I really like the solid base we're building on.

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Old
03-27-2004, 07:08 PM
  #3
WFHACommish
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IceDragoon
Thanx for the eye opening perspective, igor.

I really like the solid base we're building on.

Can be deceiving a little. For instances, last DAL game, it was 2-2 heading into the third. Even though we were up 2-0 after the 1st. My point is that it these stats are deceiving if you're up 4-1 but the team comes back and ties it 4-4 before hte period is out (not sure if that happened on the other DAL games). To me, I would like to know how many leads they have blown when they scored first and would be more accurate.

Does anyone know what their record is when they score first?

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Old
03-27-2004, 07:21 PM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WFHACommish
Can be deceiving a little. For instances, last DAL game, it was 2-2 heading into the third. Even though we were up 2-0 after the 1st. My point is that it these stats are deceiving if you're up 4-1 but the team comes back and ties it 4-4 before hte period is out (not sure if that happened on the other DAL games). To me, I would like to know how many leads they have blown when they scored first and would be more accurate.

Does anyone know what their record is when they score first?
igor was just looking at the 3rd period.
What he gave us looks good to me and adds to my positive view of the Oilers development.

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Old
03-27-2004, 07:35 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WFHACommish
Can be deceiving a little. For instances, last DAL game, it was 2-2 heading into the third. Even though we were up 2-0 after the 1st. My point is that it these stats are deceiving if you're up 4-1 but the team comes back and ties it 4-4 before hte period is out (not sure if that happened on the other DAL games). To me, I would like to know how many leads they have blown when they scored first and would be more accurate.
As per my original post ... the Oilers are almost exactly average in terms of both the last 10 minutes of the game and the last 5 minutes of the game.

It's a preception vs reality thing.
Quote:
Does anyone know what their record is when they score first?
Ah, another preception vs reality thing. The first goal is obviously important in such a low scoring sport as NHL hockey ... but nowhere near as important as it should be. A team trailing 1-0 is more likely to score the next goal than they should be based on talent. they are more likely to score when trailing by one than at any other score ... it's a momentum swing/desperation thing.

I haven't looked (and won't since it's a red herring IMO), but I'd think that the Oilers are better at expanding on a 1-0 lead than most teams. Just because they play a more aggressive style ... and this lends itself to being more likely to score the next goal when you're leading. The highly defensive trapping teams (on the whole) will benefit less from scoring first. Just common sense methinks.

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03-27-2004, 09:00 PM
  #6
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Nice post. Seems to have been some talk about how the Oilers botch the third, but this pretty much deflates that theory.

But it still sucks that we squandered leads against Dallas! Twice this year!

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03-28-2004, 12:05 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
I haven't looked (and won't since it's a red herring IMO), but I'd think that the Oilers are better at expanding on a 1-0 lead than most teams.
Well NHL's SuperStats lists some related statistics.

And I disbelieve them, so they're not much help. Or I must be reading them wrong. Some verification by others would be helpful.

According to the NHL SuperStats:
  • Oilers are 2nd last in scoring a goal while up by a goal. They barely rate above Carolina. Minnesota has done it 37 times, just like the Oilers, but have scored 20% fewer goals than the Oilers. According to this, when the Oilers get a lead, they rarely pad it. Top teams: Ottawa, Colorado, Toronto.
  • Oilers are 4th overall in scoring goals while down by one, with 12 goals. Yes, 12 goals. Implying they've managed to tie the game when down 12 times. I think this is wrong. According to the same data, Boston has 11 wins when behind after the 1st period, yet has scored goals when down by 1 only 7 times. I'd like to hear the explanation for how they've managed 11 wins when trailing without tieing up the game at least 11 times. Maybe the opposition are scoring negative goals?

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Old
03-28-2004, 09:59 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilswell
  • Oilers are 2nd last in scoring a goal while up by a goal.
this does some up the Oilers. And i'm sure many of you agree. Oilers very seldomly blow the team out. If they are up a few goals, they always seem to let the other team back in. It's brining back memories of how pissed I felt when the other teams come back despite a good lead over them. It always make the last few minutes exciting though. But i'm getting old (moving on to 21 and 1/2) I don't think my buddy can handle this much excitement

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Old
03-28-2004, 11:16 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilswell
Well NHL's SuperStats lists some related statistics.

And I disbelieve them, so they're not much help. Or I must be reading them wrong. Some verification by others would be helpful.

According to the NHL SuperStats:
  • Oilers are 2nd last in scoring a goal while up by a goal. They barely rate above Carolina. Minnesota has done it 37 times, just like the Oilers, but have scored 20% fewer goals than the Oilers. According to this, when the Oilers get a lead, they rarely pad it. Top teams: Ottawa, Colorado, Toronto.
  • Oilers are 4th overall in scoring goals while down by one, with 12 goals. Yes, 12 goals. Implying they've managed to tie the game when down 12 times. I think this is wrong. According to the same data, Boston has 11 wins when behind after the 1st period, yet has scored goals when down by 1 only 7 times. I'd like to hear the explanation for how they've managed 11 wins when trailing without tieing up the game at least 11 times. Maybe the opposition are scoring negative goals?
Ya, they must have a programming glitch or something. Because those numbers, as you say, don't even add up right.

I just ran a quick macro (and mine may have a glitch too ) And I get the following:

The Oilers are a bit below the middle-of-the-pack at scoring a goal while leading by one. (They've done it 31 times, NHL average is 36.2).

And they are better than average at scoring when trailing by one. (They've done it 46 times, NHL average is 37.1).


And as you mentioned BOS ... coincidentally they have the EXACT same numbers as the Oilers in this regard.

I guess all teams play better when they are a bit more desperate ... and the Oilers seem a bit more than most this way.

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Old
03-28-2004, 03:07 PM
  #10
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It's not surprising

they're one of the better teams at holding a lead or winning a game they've lead after 40 because heading into that 3rd period vs the Wings Quinn mentioned they were just about the league;s best.

But ever since that night they've given up tonnes of points and though they've grabbed some of them back in OT, ie Phx and Chi, there's still the games vs the Stars and Wings and Canucks and then Stars were they weren't so lucky

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