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The ODDs with Putting one egg in one basket.

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Old
04-03-2004, 09:06 AM
  #1
WFHACommish
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The ODDs with Putting ALL eggs in one basket.

Just wondering...

How many would hope for a TIE between STL and NSH today?
Or would you put all your eggs in one basket and have STL win NSH? From the posts, I think a lot of you are hoping STL beat NSH.

If you want STL to win, that means the only game of interest tomorrow would be NSH and STL.

I know a tie would mean that both games tomorrow would mean at least two ties instead of a win to knock out the oilers.

Personally, I'm hoping for the tie. I think it will give us a better chance. At least you have two games to hope for a loss, instead of one game


Last edited by WFHACommish: 04-03-2004 at 09:07 AM. Reason: meant all instead of one
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04-03-2004, 11:29 AM
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dawgbone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WFHACommish
Just wondering...

How many would hope for a TIE between STL and NSH today?
Or would you put all your eggs in one basket and have STL win NSH? From the posts, I think a lot of you are hoping STL beat NSH.

If you want STL to win, that means the only game of interest tomorrow would be NSH and STL.

I know a tie would mean that both games tomorrow would mean at least two ties instead of a win to knock out the oilers.

Personally, I'm hoping for the tie. I think it will give us a better chance. At least you have two games to hope for a loss, instead of one game
See, I have a feeling that both teams will pull out one point on Sunday... The worst scenario is a St. Louis loss, because they will beat up on minnesota on Sunday.

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Old
04-03-2004, 11:42 AM
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GorillazXL
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I think rabi_sultan has a similar thread going... any hoot, a tie would be the best case scenario, as dawbone pointed out it would give us two teams to "hope" loose. Minnesota actually played pretty well last night and Colorado, well if they get their entire line up going...

GXL

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04-03-2004, 03:37 PM
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Asiaoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
See, I have a feeling that both teams will pull out one point on Sunday... The worst scenario is a St. Louis loss, because they will beat up on minnesota on Sunday.
Why do you assume that? Minny is playing very well (better than Colorado) has not lost to St Louis this year. They have the type of team that could beat St Louis in this situation (trapping / good goaltending) and will be rested and playing at home. I have WAY more faith in Minny ending the Blues playoff streak than in a sagging Colorada team with Salo in net doing anything against the Preds.

plus I want the Preds AND the Oilers to make it - the pox on St Louis! :devil:

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04-03-2004, 03:48 PM
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If the Blues lose or tie tonight, I'm sure Minny would love nothing more than to put them out of the playoffs. On the other hand, I bet Colorado wouldn't care if Nashville makes it in... and might even prefer it, so they may be indifferent in their game on Sunday.

However, I'm in the camp that a tie is the best option and OT win/loss is the worst.

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04-03-2004, 03:53 PM
  #6
t0mf00lery
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMackey
If the Blues lose or tie tonight, I'm sure Minny would love nothing more than to put them out of the playoffs. On the other hand, I bet Colorado wouldn't care if Nashville makes it in... and might even prefer it, so they may be indifferent in their game on Sunday.

However, I'm in the camp that a tie is the best option and OT win/loss is the worst.
If the Oilers win tonight that gives Colorado extra incentive to win tomorrow. They would have a chance to pass Vancouver and win the division.

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04-03-2004, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerrick
If the Oilers win tonight that gives Colorado extra incentive to win tomorrow. They would have a chance to pass Vancouver and win the division.
True enough... I'd thought about that after. Hopefully both Colorado and Minnesota feel enough incentive to win their games tomorrow.

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Old
04-03-2004, 04:31 PM
  #8
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Ok, here is a little statistical analysis of the two situations based on an Oiler win, and the fact that the outcomes of the next game are based on previouse record. I realize that this is a bit flawed, but a little interesting none the less.

Oilers win

Case a) Nashville looses vs St Louis:
then chances of Oil making playoffs = chances that Preds do not win their next game = 43/80 (based on the fact that the Preds have won 37/80 games thus far)
= 54%

Case b) St Louis and Nashville tie
then chances of making playoffs =
Prob(Nashville looses in regulation) + Prob (St Louis looses in regulation) - Prob(Nashville looses in regulation)*Prob(St Louise looses in regulation)

= 28/80 + 29/80 - 28/80 * 29/80
= 0.35 + 0.3625 - 0.127
= 58.5 %

So there you go... I realize that there are other factors like who they are playing.

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04-03-2004, 04:54 PM
  #9
The Rage
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil slick
Ok, here is a little statistical analysis of the two situations based on an Oiler win, and the fact that the outcomes of the next game are based on previouse record. I realize that this is a bit flawed, but a little interesting none the less.

Oilers win

Case a) Nashville looses vs St Louis:
then chances of Oil making playoffs = chances that Preds do not win their next game = 43/80 (based on the fact that the Preds have won 37/80 games thus far)
= 54%

Case b) St Louis and Nashville tie
then chances of making playoffs =
Prob(Nashville looses in regulation) + Prob (St Louis looses in regulation) - Prob(Nashville looses in regulation)*Prob(St Louise looses in regulation)

= 28/80 + 29/80 - 28/80 * 29/80
= 0.35 + 0.3625 - 0.127
= 58.5 %

So there you go... I realize that there are other factors like who they are playing.
You should use the betting lines. I'm not sure HOW you could use them, but I think it would give you a far more accurate result if you use them. Where's igor when you need him?

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