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NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

Future Greats and Hearbreaks by Gare Joyce

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Old
12-29-2007, 04:45 PM
  #26
Bob b smith
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Read the book. Loved it. Invaluable for anyone that follows seriously prospects and the entry draft.

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12-30-2007, 01:17 AM
  #27
daethfromabove1979
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dear god i must have this book

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Old
12-30-2007, 04:05 AM
  #28
DoctorDoak
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Bought it yesterday from Chapter's in Victoria - the second-to-last copy, so it's good to see it selling well. I've just started it and it's great so far.

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12-30-2007, 08:04 AM
  #29
gare joyce
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Well, in this case, bad news for the consumer is maybe good news for me. The publisher didn't do much of a job selling it into Coles stores. Or, to look at another way, Coles didn't order that many. Chapters/Indigo had stacks (usually an order of 24) but the Eaton's Centre in Toronto and W Edmonton Mall, to name two, went through them in two weeks and the re-order didn't make it in time for Xmas/Boxing Day. Quite a few of the major stores ditto and that's bad news/bad news. Thanks for interest/support.

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12-30-2007, 08:21 AM
  #30
Top Corner2
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Hey Gare, I have a question for you. Any chance you are going to publish something that enlightens us about that list ranking recent draft history of NHL teams. I would love to know more about that....and I'm sure others would too.

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12-30-2007, 10:21 AM
  #31
gare joyce
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Curious. Which list would that be? Nothing in my book, nothing I wrote.

I don't buy rankings like that. Teams' draft performances can be analyzed somewhat. One scouting director, a friend not in Columbus' organization, spent months doing a team-by-team breakdown of drafts from 2000-2007. And, he says he figures that you can only conclusively and fully evaluate the 2000 and 2001 drafts because the players since are still evolving/developing. His bottom line: You can only evaluate a draft by comparing the players in their prime, not at stages along the way. Further there's the question of development. Example: Have the Sabres done a better job drafting players or developing the players they drafted? Chicken-egg prop. If I were starting a scouting staff my first hire might be Randy Cunneyworth, Buffalo's coach in the A.

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12-30-2007, 02:03 PM
  #32
Top Corner2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gare joyce View Post
Curious. Which list would that be? Nothing in my book, nothing I wrote.

I don't buy rankings like that. Teams' draft performances can be analyzed somewhat. One scouting director, a friend not in Columbus' organization, spent months doing a team-by-team breakdown of drafts from 2000-2007. And, he says he figures that you can only conclusively and fully evaluate the 2000 and 2001 drafts because the players since are still evolving/developing. His bottom line: You can only evaluate a draft by comparing the players in their prime, not at stages along the way. Further there's the question of development. Example: Have the Sabres done a better job drafting players or developing the players they drafted? Chicken-egg prop. If I were starting a scouting staff my first hire might be Randy Cunneyworth, Buffalo's coach in the A.
Maybe it wasn't a list...something I thought I read on your blog when you were talking about Toronto's drafting...probably what you just mentioned

Definitely two excellent points about ranking drafts....something many of us forget around here....getting there quicker doesn't mean you're going to have a better career. In fact I think some teams reduce players potential by rushing them in.

Randy & the Amerks are having a harder time year....

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Old
12-31-2007, 12:16 AM
  #33
gare joyce
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The fact is, if you're talking about a seven-year development curve, a lot of the scouts who helped make a decision are working for other organizations by the time the player hits (or misses).

Use the Leafs for example. Was Anders Hedberg a bonehead for the Antropov draft (a mishandled or rushed prospect rather than a bad draft, I think) or for Cereda (medical bad luck, but sorta suspect)? Let's say he was a bonehead. Did he grow a brain when he was working for Ottawa afterward? BTW Hedberg wanted to draft Petr Sykora instead of Jeff Ware -- but Bill Watters big-footed him so the Leafs drafted the son of Watters's U of T football team-mate. (Watters lied to my face and said that Hedberg was the guy pushing for Ware ... like that made any sense.)

Success has many fathers and defeat is an orphan -- that's the story with the draft. With every pick, good or bad, there are backstories that are only known to those in the room and open to constant revision (see Watters's example).

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Old
12-31-2007, 01:14 AM
  #34
thestonedkoala
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Hey Joyce, you know anything else on O'Sullivan?

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12-31-2007, 02:21 AM
  #35
gare joyce
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I actually worked with this father but didn't realize that until after I had interviewed Patrick ... I knew the story for about a year prior to that but wanted to wait until P O'S turned 18. I wish Patrick the best. He has been through a lot. I printed what I was comfortable telling. Why do you ask?

Sidenote: I was in Strathroy today for the U.S-Russia game at the under-17. P O'S played for the Junior B team there. Got me thinking about the ESPN The Magazine story I wrote, the first thing that was written about the awful backstory. A section that was pulled for space ... Pat Stapleton, coach of the local team, said that he knew nothing about John O'Sullivan's abusive behavior, said J O'S seemed like a good guy. But I talked to other officials around the team and a couple said that there were real warning signs. One fellow--and god help me if I can find the draft of it--told me he saw J O'S kick his son square in the ass after a practice. He said he regretted never calling the authorities. J O'S could be a bit intimidating. A bit, tho' he was a little intimidated by a biker we worked with who told him that it would only take five pounds of pressure to pull his earlobe off.

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12-31-2007, 06:14 AM
  #36
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The book sounds superb - I'm in England and would love to get a copy but your publisher doesn't seem to ship out of Canada/US right now? Hopefully it winds its way over at some point. Any idea how I could get a copy (I'm not a fan of ebay!)

The blog is very insightful, by the way.

As you had some time with the Jackets, is there much/anything on Maxim Mayorov by any chance?

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Old
12-31-2007, 08:41 AM
  #37
gare joyce
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McWoo ... tough one. Did you try the Random House Canada site? Here's the link. If that doesn't work, PM me. Mayorov ... well, in honesty not a heck of a lot on him, more on Cherepanov. I liked Korostin and Karamnov (Korostin, a pretty decent finisher, was picked up by Dallas, Karamnov is playing but not having an impact in Everett). Mayorov was a step up from them. If MacLean had still been in Columbus, the pick would almost certainly not have been made.

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12-31-2007, 05:31 PM
  #38
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A fascinating read for sure. I recommend this book to anyone who is a draft junkie like myself. I ordered the book through amazon for those who can't find it at your local book store.

The book has gotten me even more excited for the draft here in Ottawa coming up in June.

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Old
12-31-2007, 05:34 PM
  #39
mike14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SharkyMcWoo View Post
The book sounds superb - I'm in England and would love to get a copy but your publisher doesn't seem to ship out of Canada/US right now? Hopefully it winds its way over at some point. Any idea how I could get a copy (I'm not a fan of ebay!)

The blog is very insightful, by the way.

As you had some time with the Jackets, is there much/anything on Maxim Mayorov by any chance?
Yeah it sucks that Ramdom House Ca doesn't ship outside of Canada. I bought it from Amazon, it's about $7 more than the RH list price but what can you do?

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Old
12-31-2007, 06:48 PM
  #40
gare joyce
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Mike, I'm sorry for that. I assure you that I see not a penny from that seven bucks. A goofy oversight ... my Random House contract just called for Canadian rights and distribution, nothing for the U.S. (My two books previous were North American rights, etc)

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12-31-2007, 07:20 PM
  #41
mike14
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No need to apologise, just a shame that you don't see any of the $$, if you could something about redusing international shipping rates however

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12-31-2007, 07:55 PM
  #42
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Gare, feel free to stop by the Jackets board sometime to let us in on some of your insights. Very interesting stuff.

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12-31-2007, 08:06 PM
  #43
thestonedkoala
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The reason I asked is because O'Sullivan is a great kid and a great talent but I always thought there was more to the story because the kid had top 10 skills but fell almost out of the 2nd round. I didn't just buy those stories.

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Old
12-31-2007, 09:11 PM
  #44
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I'm a bit over halfway through it. Loving this book. I wish one would come out every couple years just like it chronicling the draft classes and the thought processes. We could only wish more NHL clubs would be so open.

Read the part about the Swift Current kid who tells about when he was a rookie and Ian White was there. Sounds like White was a complete jerk.

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Old
12-31-2007, 10:07 PM
  #45
gare joyce
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I guess the big point about Swift Current, not completely stated, is that the voices of the players are a heckuva lot different than the impression left by those at the combine ... if you want to know what junior hockey is like, you could get the wrong impression if you only ever talked to, say, Sam Gagner or Jordan Staal ... a lot more kids are lightly considered prospects or no prospects at all

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12-31-2007, 10:19 PM
  #46
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Just ordered the book online, can't wait to read it!!

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Old
12-31-2007, 10:54 PM
  #47
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Picked up a copy this afternoon and am excited to get a start on it tomorrow. Word of mouth is spreading this book around these boards, I hope it does well for you, Gare.

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Old
12-31-2007, 11:21 PM
  #48
gare joyce
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Kirk, thanks for that. The one problem: What to do next. I have a couple of ideas for smaller books. We'll see.

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12-31-2007, 11:56 PM
  #49
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Gare, just finished your book on the beach in Waikiki this morning. I'm a pretty big stats junkie and am always amazed at how much info is out there for use in evaluating players that goes unnoticed by a majority of the hockey community. I'm even more amazed that many GM's, in charge of tens of millions in payroll, obviously haven't tapped into this resource nearly to it's full potential.

Obviously stats don't tell the whole story of a young player, but there are some stats that would fill in some big holes in the current "points, PIM's, +/-" statlines such as Time On Ice breakdowns at EV, PP, PK, EV and PP Scoring Breakdowns, etc.

Do you know if this is info that scouts look into when evaluating prospects?

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Old
01-01-2008, 12:19 AM
  #50
gare joyce
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Boondock, you b-stard. You want a straight answer on the beach. And I've been in rinks all day at under-17 ... sorry, just envy talking. Actually, stats (shifts, ice-time, plus-minus) barely register with scouts. Their work's anecdotally driven, all about context, and I don't know that it's wrong to approach it that way. Stats can get undeservedly fat in jr and other stuff can't get a # attached. Example: You want to see the best forwards in major junior, your draft prospects, on the road rather than at home ... simple reason is that a coach with last change will get his best forward out against a 16-year-old defenceman rather than an overager, a good 19-year-old and/or checking line. Flip that method on its head: Maybe you want to see a blueline prospect at home, to see how he fairs against first-line players. One other complicating issue ... let's face it, talent distribution in major jr is so mixed, so all over the place, what you do against the weakest players on the weakest teams shouldn't matter at all. The distance between the best and worst teams in major jr is a lot farther than the same in the NHL (or AHL or major pro Euro leagues).

Hope you enjoyed the book. Happy New Year.

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