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What are we missing to win the Cup?

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Old
02-07-2008, 03:02 PM
  #76
voxel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
it's not a matter of "praying," it's a simple matter of fact that you can't make a serious argument about lack of previous playoff experience/success being a determining factor. players tend to perform exactly as you'd expect over a longer sample of playoff games, it just happens very quickly... i would expect Biron to be a .910ish goalie in the playoffs: exactly what he's been in his career.
You're right playoff experience is not the determining factor, but I was hinting at a youngish D that isn't reliable when thrown on ice against tough opposition.

I'd argue strong ES play is the best indicator of playoff success. The Ducks last year were fantastic at ES, and on the PP + PK.

The year the Oilers went to the finals they were loaded with ES monsters: Peca, Pronger, Smyth, Horcoff, Dvorak, Spacek, Moreau, Pisani, Torres, etc.. all players who traditionally gave up few goals against at ES and always outscored at ES - think Hartnell cloned 10 times.

Another indicator is records against playoff teams. The Ducks record and goal differential against playoff teams in the West was fantastic as I recall... They destroyed playoff teams. I thought the Wild or the Ducks would win the cup last year given their dominance. The Wild/Canucks/Penguins/Stars/Avs had the best records in the last 20-25 games or so... losing only a handful each.

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
the regular season is NOT random... it's 82 games. you play well and you win... you don't play well and you lose. now the East may be weak (it is), but it isn't random.

again, untested goalie is a crutch argument and too easy. Biron is a veteran goalie in this league... he may crap the bed in the playoffs, but it isn't going to be because he hasn't played in 'em before. last i checked the dimensions of the net and rink are the same, the puck is the same size... and the sport is still hockey.
You said the playoffs are "so random" and I counter that the regular season is similar. The regular season and a team's record varies greatly from the expected. Streaky teams, injuries, bad divisions, etc. I'd toss out the record and look at the underlying stats: ES play, record against top teams, injury history, record in the last 20, etc.

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Old
02-07-2008, 03:09 PM
  #77
HappyGilmour
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Alot of the goaltender's success comes from how the team plays infront of him. If you look at Ottawa's run last year, Emery was good but not great. He didn't really steal them any games, he just made the stops he had to do. Any goalie can go far in the playoffs if his respective team is playing solid defence. If Emery can make it to the finals, Biron can imo.

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Old
02-07-2008, 03:18 PM
  #78
Jester
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Originally Posted by voxel View Post
You said the playoffs are "so random" and I counter that the regular season is similar. The regular season and a team's record varies greatly from the expected. Streaky teams, injuries, bad divisions, etc. I'd toss out the record and look at the underlying stats: ES play, record against top teams, injury history, record in the last 20, etc.
streaky teams even out over 82 games... you need to win 16 games to win a Stanley Cup, a good or bad streak determines how far you go in the playoffs in many cases, thus it's random.

82 games is a large(r) sample.
7 game series are a tiny sample.

small samples are volatile... large samples are not. the regular season and the playoffs are not remotely similar when breaking down why teams win or lose... Brian Boucher can throw up 5 shutouts in a row in the regular season and that means squat. he does that in the playoffs and that's moving you on a round.

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Old
02-07-2008, 03:23 PM
  #79
Dig Out Your Soul
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
that's how it goes. ask Richards.
Only once has Richards gone more than a game without a point, Carter does it routinely. Asking Richards wouldn't make a lot of sense.

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Old
02-07-2008, 03:39 PM
  #80
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Goaltending

Perhaps a Goaltender who can win Four Rounds of playoff hockey.

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Old
02-07-2008, 04:22 PM
  #81
Jester
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Originally Posted by Storm in a Teacup View Post
Only once has Richards gone more than a game without a point, Carter does it routinely. Asking Richards wouldn't make a lot of sense.
for the record, he's gone more than a game without a point twice this year, but that's quibbling.

yes, but Richards points have come in waves as well... which is true of all players. Richards is also manning the point on the top unit, which is getting him TONS of cheap points on assists, which makes it difficult to make strong comparisons as well... they have the same number of even strength goals, and Richards has a whopping 17 point lead in PP points. this isn't to suggest that Richards hasn't played well, obviously he has, merely that he's benefited immensely from being on the point of one of the top PPs (which he has something to do with) this year.

since Christmas, Richards has 8 even strength points in 19 games (with 10 PP points); Carter has 6 even strength points over that stretch (with 8 PP points).

moreover, Carter is, and always will be, a goal scorer more than a distributor... which is going to hinder his ability to pickup points with ease. Richards has 4 goals since Christmas... Carter has 6. on the year Carter only has 4 less goals than Richards, while spending chunks of time centering the likes of Kapanen and Tolpeko (at the same time)... as well as Knuble who has struggled to get anything going offensively at even strength this year.

this argument isn't meant as disparaging to Richards, but the jumping on Carter side is absurd. Richards has played fantastically, but his offensive totals over the course of the year have been helped immensely by always having strong wingers this season and being put in a position on the top unit to pick up a lot of points... working with Jones and Coburn to create offense is a whole different game than Timonen and Briere.

at one point Richards was on pace for 50 goals... he's now on pace for 34. So, yes, ask Richards... offense isn't a linear process from game 1 to game 82. likely Richards will get hot again at some point.

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Old
02-07-2008, 06:25 PM
  #82
Gert B Frobe
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Hatcher must be gone and replaced with a top 4 defenseman. We need one more solid forward (healthy Forsberg would more than suffice)

Unfortunately we also need a goalie... I don't think either of these guys can cut it.

Stevens won't sit Hatcher - so it's up to Holmgren to dispose of him somehow. And the goalies are here to stay so sadly, no cup for us this year.

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