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Measuring defence

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Old
02-12-2008, 08:34 AM
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fromage67
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Measuring defence

Alan Ryder has another excellent article up at the Globe & Mail:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/s...rtsHockey/home

It makes Brisebois look good which makes me suspicious, but the flaw in his reasoning is that he doesn't account for match-ups. Still, a very interesting read.

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02-12-2008, 08:41 AM
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Cristobal Huet
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Thanks for the read, interesting.

Brisebois.

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02-12-2008, 08:48 AM
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Dripper
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One could argue that Markov is always paired against the most dangerous line while Brisebois plays against 3rd liner. For this stat to be reliable you would need to multiply every goal scored by a correlation factor representing the strenght of the opposing line.

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02-12-2008, 09:07 AM
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Ice Poutine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dripper View Post
One could argue that Markov is always paired against the most dangerous line while Brisebois plays against 3rd liner. For this stat to be reliable you would need to multiply every goal scored by a correlation factor representing the strenght of the opposing line.
Thats a good point, i agree. Correctly evaluating the correlation factor representing the strength of the opposing line would be the tricky part tho as statistics vary a lot year after year.

A lot of variables would have to go into this.

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02-12-2008, 09:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dripper View Post
One could argue that Markov is always paired against the most dangerous line while Brisebois plays against 3rd liner. For this stat to be reliable you would need to multiply every goal scored by a correlation factor representing the strenght of the opposing line.
Good point, When does Brisebois plays shorthanded? It would be hard to calculate the strenght of the opposing line. But we could have the number of presence in shorthanded situation and the average time spent each time....

If Brisebois plays an average of 15 sec (the last 15 sec) of opposing powerplay... it means nothing...

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02-12-2008, 09:24 AM
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fromage67
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That is what I mean when I say his method doesn't account for match-ups. Marlov and Komisarek always play against the top lines.

It is best for short-handed situations, when the opposition always send its best offensive players anyways.

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02-12-2008, 09:49 AM
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Lacking strength of opposition is a crippling omission in an analysis like this, IMHO. It's a lot easier to defend Dean McAmmond than Daniel Alfredsson. If Breezer has less goals against McAmmond than Markov has against Alffie's line, well, that doesn't necessarily mean he is a better defender now does it?

If a McAmmond type typically scores .5 goals per 60 minutes of ice time, and Brisebois increases this to .6, he'll still have a better GAA than Markov, who reduces Alffie's usual 1 goal/60 mins to 0.8. But I still know who I want on the ice against the Pizza line.

GAA makes sense for goaltenders because they play the whole game and face the entirety of the opposing team, but ice time for D-men is not created equal. As such, a Goals Against Average, while interesting, isn't a good measure of quality defensive play at all -- it's deeply flawed to the point of being completely useless. Worse than useless: as a statistic, you can't rely on it because if you do, it will lead to erroneous conclusions.

So no... I actually don't think it's a very good article, or at least, not a very useful or novel one. I think behindthenet already had those stats anyway. It's true that the NHL needs some sort of stat for defense, but GAA is just bad. Mr. Ryder should have included a big red neon caveat that strength of opposition was not factored in, because that completely changes the tenor of his GAA statistic. Mr. Ryder is usually very good, so a blind spot of this size is unlike him.


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02-12-2008, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fromage67 View Post
Alan Ryder has another excellent article up at the Globe & Mail:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/s...rtsHockey/home

It makes Brisebois look good which makes me suspicious, but the flaw in his reasoning is that he doesn't account for match-ups. Still, a very interesting read.

Well if it makes Brisebois look good, I'm not even going to read it....because if he thinks Brisebois is a good defencemen he obviously knows nothing about hockey and winning.

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