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The best article about UFA rentals, ever.

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Old
02-21-2008, 02:27 PM
  #1
jpguy13
 
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The best article about UFA rentals, ever.

Deep and very, very compelling article about rentals and their impact on the teams they join, by Daniel Tolensky.

If I'm Bob Gainey and I read that, I don't get Hossa or Sundin as rentals. I make damn sure they're signed before I trade, OR, I get Brad Richards or Olli Jokinen instead.

Good debunking of the myth that once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.
Great article over at hockeybuzz.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=13490

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02-21-2008, 02:35 PM
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Someone forgot the impact of Recchi, Weight, Daryl Sydor, and others in 2006 and 2004....

Also the habs are currently in that elusive top 4/5 group he talks about.

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02-21-2008, 02:38 PM
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Edmonton just scraped into the playoffs one year and got all the way to the Finals.

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Old
02-21-2008, 02:42 PM
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I read somewhere that Holland really regrets the cost of the Bertuzzi signing given the development of Shawn Matthias with the Panthers.

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02-21-2008, 02:45 PM
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Loop25
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Author primitively seems to evaluate traded players only by goals.

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02-21-2008, 02:47 PM
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I think is point is that we should not give our 1st pick away that easy...

Basically, Rivet is not worth a first pick, Max Pac vs Rivet....


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02-21-2008, 02:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GNick42 View Post
Edmonton just scraped into the playoffs one year and got all the way to the Finals.
And unfortunately they are one of the 3 consecutive Canadian teams to blow their shot at the cup. But thankfully Ottawa didn't win it either, damn i hate them. Hopefully tonight we can pass them in the standings.

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02-21-2008, 02:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beakermania View Post
Also the habs are currently in that elusive top 4/5 group he talks about.
Except he then whines about our lack of Canadian scorers.

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02-22-2008, 07:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lone Rogue View Post
Except he then whines about our lack of Canadian scorers.
Primitive view....

Who wouldn't take
Playoff Kovalev vs Playoff Ribeiro

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02-22-2008, 07:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beakermania View Post
Primitive view....

Who wouldn't take
Playoff Kovalev vs Playoff Ribeiro
Some not so bright people around here.

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Old
02-22-2008, 07:34 AM
  #11
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I think that Bob Gainey will go after Richards. Hossa is having all the attention right now, so the biddind for Brad will not be so high. Conn Smythe winner, silent leader and will propably more fit in the habs team right now. We can get him without giving some guy like Higgins. I don't think that Jokinen will come in MTL even if i would like to..

Bob Gainey won't break the chemistry and give up roster player such as higgins for a rental player like sundin or hossa. The bidding of going way too high for Bob .. If he has no other option .. then there'll be no trade

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02-22-2008, 07:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GNick42 View Post
Edmonton just scraped into the playoffs one year and got all the way to the Finals.
the bottom line is this

10-15 teams blow thier brains out trading picks, kids, anything to win

ONE TEAM WINS THE CUP

for every " look we had to make this deal" thta works out 90% fail every draft deadline. Its hit and miss , you juts hope you are on the right side of the deal .

what deadline deals really made a difference last year ??????????

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Old
02-22-2008, 07:59 AM
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kovaless
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First time posting on HF boards, so go easy on mee.

I don't think the Habs need Brad Richards, at 7.8 million a year....that's almost twice what koivu/kovalev make.

2007-08 Tampa Bay NHL 60 18 32 50 -25 15 222 8.11
2006-07 Tampa Bay NHL 82 25 45 70 -19 23 272 9.19
2005-06 Tampa Bay NHL 82 23 68 91 0 32 282 8.16
2004-05 AK Bars Kazan Rus 6 2 5 7 +2 16 - -
2003-04 Tampa Bay NHL 82 26 53 79 +14 12 244 10.66

His point decline is going down, and he's -25 and only 50 points this season.

When I think of impact player, I think of someone who can produce 100 points a season on whatever team he's on, someone who is worth 8 million a year.

Here's the status with the Habs. Goalie status is fine (even though last night was a poor display), offense is decent, if we can maintain 4+ goals a night we'll be ok. I think the problem is our defense, and we take stupid penalties.
Habs will make the playoffs without the use of a rental, and I'm pretty sure we can win a round or 2.

My two cents...

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Old
02-22-2008, 08:31 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kovalicious View Post
First time posting on HF boards, so go easy on mee.

I don't think the Habs need Brad Richards, at 7.8 million a year....that's almost twice what koivu/kovalev make.

2007-08 Tampa Bay NHL 60 18 32 50 -25 15 222 8.11
2006-07 Tampa Bay NHL 82 25 45 70 -19 23 272 9.19
2005-06 Tampa Bay NHL 82 23 68 91 0 32 282 8.16
2004-05 AK Bars Kazan Rus 6 2 5 7 +2 16 - -
2003-04 Tampa Bay NHL 82 26 53 79 +14 12 244 10.66

His point decline is going down, and he's -25 and only 50 points this season.

When I think of impact player, I think of someone who can produce 100 points a season on whatever team he's on, someone who is worth 8 million a year.

Here's the status with the Habs. Goalie status is fine (even though last night was a poor display), offense is decent, if we can maintain 4+ goals a night we'll be ok. I think the problem is our defense, and we take stupid penalties.
Habs will make the playoffs without the use of a rental, and I'm pretty sure we can win a round or 2.

My two cents...
I don't know of any impact player that could get 100 points while playing with Jan Hlavac and Mathieu Darche.
There's limits to what a guy can on his own...

Furthermore, if I understand your reasoning, only 7 players are impact players in this league since only 7 guys got 100+ points last year.

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02-22-2008, 08:34 AM
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kovaless
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ok maybe 100 points is pushing it but wouldn't it be nice if we could get one ?

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Old
02-22-2008, 08:38 AM
  #16
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Richards is a great 2 way player, he would help us a lot on faceoffs and on pK on top of adding a PPGM player. Sure he isn't worth 7.8...probably more like 6-6.5 but if we can get him for half the price of Hossa(who will make about the same on an extension anyways) it might be worth it.

I think for the same price and money, Hossa is a bigger impact for sure, being a pure sniper and almost as complete as a player...however if you can get Higgins and Richards instead of just Hossa then it's a no brainer for me(Same trade minus Higgins included).

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Old
02-22-2008, 09:02 AM
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jpguy13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kovalicious View Post
First time posting on HF boards, so go easy on mee.

I don't think the Habs need Brad Richards, at 7.8 million a year....that's almost twice what koivu/kovalev make.

2007-08 Tampa Bay NHL 60 18 32 50 -25 15 222 8.11
2006-07 Tampa Bay NHL 82 25 45 70 -19 23 272 9.19
2005-06 Tampa Bay NHL 82 23 68 91 0 32 282 8.16
2004-05 AK Bars Kazan Rus 6 2 5 7 +2 16 - -
2003-04 Tampa Bay NHL 82 26 53 79 +14 12 244 10.66

His point decline is going down, and he's -25 and only 50 points this season.

When I think of impact player, I think of someone who can produce 100 points a season on whatever team he's on, someone who is worth 8 million a year.

Here's the status with the Habs. Goalie status is fine (even though last night was a poor display), offense is decent, if we can maintain 4+ goals a night we'll be ok. I think the problem is our defense, and we take stupid penalties.
Habs will make the playoffs without the use of a rental, and I'm pretty sure we can win a round or 2.

My two cents...
The point is not whether Marian Hossa is a better player than Brad Richards. The point is which player best fills a need in Montreal. Montreal has wingers by the boatload. They come in many shapes and sizes, and nearly all of them have a good offensive upside.

The same can be said for Montreal's defense and goaltending. But, at center, the Habs are very shallow. So, yes Richards is expensive, but I think we could get him with a relatively minor trade, as the Bolts are looking to shed some salary, PLUS, he's already signed for a couple of seasons, PLUS he's always been a winner (Memorial and Stanley Cup), PLUS he's relatively young. Also, if Hossa, who now earns 7M$ a season signs with Montreal, how much to you think he's gonna cost, 9 or 10M$, is he worth that much?

Ideally I'd like Jokinen who's bigger and more agressive, but Richards, I think could come in cheaper (tradewise), and have a more positive attitude. But what I'm saying is that the Habs' one glaring deficiency is at center. So you can bring all the Hossas of the world in, we'll still be weak at center...

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Old
02-22-2008, 09:03 AM
  #18
flappuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Richards is a great 2 way player, he would help us a lot on faceoffs and on pK on top of adding a PPGM player. Sure he isn't worth 7.8...probably more like 6-6.5 but if we can get him for half the price of Hossa(who will make about the same on an extension anyways) it might be worth it.
I'm not saying he's worth 7.8M$ but one has to remember that when he signed that contract, he was #7 in points in the league over the 5 previous season and had won a Cup and playoff MVP.
He was always in the shadow of Lecavalier and St-Louis even though Richards was actually doing better in terms of consistency.

So, should he have a little less? Maybe.
At that price, do you take him or Briere? Drury? Gomez?

If he can be on pace for 70 points while playing with 3rd and 4th line wingers, give him wingers and he'll get 85+ points every year.

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Old
02-22-2008, 09:40 AM
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If Richards was going to be UFA I'd say do it, cause he'd probably sign for cheap due to his recent decline, but really, he's just signed too long. Gainey won't take a risk like that.

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02-22-2008, 09:42 AM
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Dark4ng3l
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Richards with his contract is a HUGE risk. That makes him of little value unlike what some fans might think. Contract value is so much more important than just how good the player is now. Getting Richards would be cheap because it would be almost a pure salary dump for tampa but is it worth the risk? I would rather go with the guys we are developing than getting a guy who is way overpaid.

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Old
02-22-2008, 09:52 AM
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"There's absolutely no need for a Don Cherry-style rant here but given the makeup of past Cup winners you would think that another Canadian or two on the Canadiens wouldn’t hurt their chances."

But Hossa would? This guy is a tool

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Old
02-22-2008, 10:09 AM
  #22
RE-HABS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark4ng3l View Post
Richards with his contract is a HUGE risk. That makes him of little value unlike what some fans might think. Contract value is so much more important than just how good the player is now. Getting Richards would be cheap because it would be almost a pure salary dump for tampa but is it worth the risk? I would rather go with the guys we are developing than getting a guy who is way overpaid.
I think any player signed to a long term deal or making 4 + million/per is a high risk player!

Richards on any other team where he would be on the topline 100% of the time playing with the 2 top wingers would be a 100 point man. He doesn't get 100% exclusive play time with St.Louis and Vinnie, PP only. He is on a 2nd line with 3rd line-4th line players. He is good defensively, good on the faceoffs and many in Tampa would probably tell you he is almost as valuable to the Lightning as Vinnie is.

Do you not think Richards would not be getting 100 point season after season if he were on that topline like Spezza, Alfredsson and Heatley? He would be in the top 5 scoring and his linemates would be as well, if not all three in the top 10 for sure!

Richards is expendible in TB because his contract is heavier and makes it for a lower return for a team to get a star player in return for their team (teams know they can offer less in a deal for Brad over what it would cost to get Vinnie). I could only imagine the damage that a Nash/Richards combo would make in Columbus.

Tampa is looking to keep Boyle, they lose him then their weak D is that much weaker, moving Richards allows them to free money to sign Boyle and they are soley focused on keeping Vinnie because he has become one of the top 3 players in the league and St.louis is a player they keep because of the chemistry Vinnie and Marty have. TB has so much money sunk into their top 3 that they need to shift the biggest contract to build some depth on the other lines, their D and their goaltending. It is going to take more than a Richards trade to do some smart money management in TB because Vinnie will be looking at a crazy high end salary if re-signed and to build depth on the rest of the team it is going to be some creative thinking as well. I think Tampa is in trouble with the cap and Richards is the first to go to try to correct it, not because of his play or skills thats for sure.

I'd take Richards, at his salary and what he can do as a #1 centre he is worth the same as the top end players getting signed to that and higher...and he is a proven winner as Stanley Cup Champ and as a Conn Smythe winner as well for Playoff MVP.

I think too many look at Richards salary and not at what he is capible of doing and why his totals are suffering in TB...there is a bigger picture that people need to see.

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