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Timely Goal Scoring in Hockey History

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Old
12-21-2016, 09:48 AM
  #26
rhinoshawarma
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Really interesting, I always was thinking about this topic and wondered if anybody made this data for the current season. I may give it a go if nobody else is/no website is doing it

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12-22-2016, 12:00 AM
  #27
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Incredible job! Gives me a bit of a different perspective on Andreychuk's contributions.

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12-22-2016, 12:31 PM
  #28
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Clutch goals

I've done some aggregation for "clutch" goals:

http://morehockeystats.com/players/c...987/2016/total

GEG - Game Ending Goal. The decisive goal scored in OT. 2.5 points
GWG - Game Winning Goal that was the last to be scored. 1.5 points
LGWG - Late GWG - GWG scored in the last 3 minutes of the game. 2 points
GTG - Game Tying Goal. The last or the penultimate goal that tied the game. 1 points
LGTG - Late GTG - GTG scored in the last 3 minutes of the game. 1.5 points

However, my definition of a clutch GWG is different - it's an NHL Game Winning Goal, after which the opponent did not score!
I only have data since 1987 - the earliest boxscores available on NHL.com

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12-23-2016, 10:50 AM
  #29
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First Goal

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
These are the counts of goals as the goal# in the game.

I was primarily interested in the 1st goal column, as the first goal of a hockey game is particularly important in setting the direction for the rest of the game. I also included columns for the 2nd/3rd goal of the game, the 4th/5th goal, the 6th/7th goal, the 8th/9th goal, and the 10th+ goal.

Most of the variation in these numbers can be attributed to varying scoring levels over time, of course. But there are still some interesting points. For example, Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurri rarely scored the first goal of the game.

Player Goals 1st Goal of Game % 2nd/3rd Goal % 4-5th Goal % 6-7th Goal % 8-9th goal % 10+ goal %
Wayne Gretzky 895 85 9% 211 24% 189 21% 190 21% 113 13% 107 12%
Jaromir Jagr 753 130 17% 221 29% 193 26% 114 15% 69 9% 26 3%
Brett Hull 742 131 18% 232 31% 195 26% 106 14% 54 7% 24 3%
Marcel Dionne 729 97 13% 189 26% 175 24% 137 19% 79 11% 52 7%
Phil Esposito 717 102 14% 210 29% 180 25% 111 15% 80 11% 34 5%
Mike Gartner 707 87 12% 195 28% 179 25% 130 18% 79 11% 37 5%
Mark Messier 693 110 16% 181 26% 157 23% 109 16% 89 13% 47 7%
Steve Yzerman 691 100 14% 202 29% 163 24% 128 19% 65 9% 33 5%
Mario Lemieux 690 100 14% 148 21% 156 23% 145 21% 77 11% 64 9%
Teemu Selanne 685 119 17% 239 35% 162 24% 97 14% 44 6% 24 4%
Luc Robitaille 668 83 12% 222 33% 164 25% 100 15% 61 9% 38 6%
Brendan Shanahan 658 109 17% 189 29% 198 30% 99 15% 43 7% 20 3%
Gordie Howe 641 104 16% 212 33% 190 30% 93 15% 32 5% 10 2%
Dave Andreychuk 639 105 16% 194 30% 164 26% 110 17% 43 7% 23 4%
Joe Sakic 625 117 19% 193 31% 148 24% 103 16% 44 7% 20 3%
Jarome Iginla 611 111 18% 223 36% 157 26% 89 15% 20 3% 11 2%
Bobby Hull 610 112 18% 203 33% 145 24% 89 15% 39 6% 22 4%
Dino Ciccarelli 609 91 15% 162 27% 150 25% 107 18% 59 10% 40 7%
Jari Kurri 589 56 10% 133 23% 139 24% 104 18% 86 15% 71 12%
Mark Recchi 576 78 14% 186 32% 163 28% 87 15% 42 7% 20 3%
Mike Bossy 574 65 11% 150 26% 139 24% 111 19% 62 11% 47 8%
Joe Nieuwendyk 566 84 15% 189 33% 138 24% 95 17% 42 7% 18 3%
Mike Modano 564 104 18% 165 29% 168 30% 81 14% 32 6% 14 2%
Mats Sundin 563 78 14% 183 33% 146 26% 94 17% 43 8% 19 3%
Guy Lafleur 560 67 12% 171 31% 130 23% 115 21% 50 9% 27 5%
Johnny Bucyk 556 89 16% 176 32% 140 25% 87 16% 38 7% 26 5%
Ron Francis 550 68 12% 169 31% 123 22% 93 17% 64 12% 33 6%
Michel Goulet 548 74 14% 156 28% 133 24% 95 17% 62 11% 28 5%
Stan Mikita 540 96 18% 159 29% 150 28% 88 16% 35 6% 12 2%
Keith Tkachuk 538 105 20% 150 28% 159 30% 67 12% 46 9% 11 2%
Frank Mahovlich 534 84 16% 179 34% 137 26% 87 16% 34 6% 13 2%
Alex Ovechkin 525 97 18% 160 30% 151 29% 68 13% 40 8% 9 2%
Bryan Trottier 524 84 16% 138 26% 140 27% 82 16% 50 10% 30 6%
Pat Verbeek 520 74 14% 148 28% 134 26% 84 16% 52 10% 28 5%
Dale Hawerchuk 518 67 13% 152 29% 127 25% 98 19% 37 7% 37 7%
Pierre Turgeon 515 84 16% 162 31% 139 27% 78 15% 30 6% 22 4%
Gilbert Perreault 513 83 16% 145 28% 139 27% 85 17% 33 6% 28 5%
Jeremy Roenick 513 92 18% 175 34% 130 25% 69 13% 37 7% 10 2%
Jean Beliveau 502 84 17% 163 32% 126 25% 79 16% 33 7% 17 3%
Joe Mullen 502 61 12% 138 27% 122 24% 99 20% 44 9% 38 8%
Peter Bondra 502 70 14% 172 34% 121 24% 83 17% 41 8% 15 3%
Lanny McDonald 501 76 15% 121 24% 118 24% 86 17% 58 12% 42 8%
Marian Hossa 500 72 14% 147 29% 152 30% 98 20% 23 5% 8 2%
Glenn Anderson 497 59 12% 130 26% 119 24% 90 18% 55 11% 44 9%
Jean Ratelle 491 83 17% 157 32% 120 24% 70 14% 42 9% 19 4%
Norm Ullman 488 77 16% 148 30% 132 27% 80 16% 34 7% 17 3%
Brian Bellows 484 69 14% 146 30% 110 23% 95 20% 36 7% 28 6%
Darryl Sittler 484 68 14% 120 25% 115 24% 104 21% 52 11% 25 5%
Sergei Fedorov 483 81 17% 165 34% 120 25% 78 16% 26 5% 13 3%
Patrick Marleau 478 81 17% 157 33% 152 32% 58 12% 21 4% 9 2%
Very interesting and excellent work.Jean Beliveau to Wayne Gretzky comparable is very striking. The difference in first goals is1, favouring Gretzky but the difference in total goals is 3913. Also the 10+ column gives us a clear indication about playing time in blow-outs - Gretzky and Kurri are the only players over 10%. Likewise they have the losest percentages for first goals. Somewhat understandable given their knack for multiple goal games but revealing nonetheless.

It would be interesting to see how the first goal numbers are supported by assists on first goals scored by teammates. How many assists does Gretzky have on the first goal of the game and so forth.

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Old
12-23-2016, 11:26 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Here's the big table with the numbers for all 50 players.

Rk Player Goals Blowout L Goals Rally Goals Tying Goals Go-Ahead Goals Insurance Goals Blowout W Goals Blowout L VsExpected Rally VsExpected Tying VsExpected Go-Ahead VsExpected Insurance VsExpected Blowout W VsExpected
1 Wayne Gretzky 895 20 95 137 213 295 135 -3 -15 -1 -24 29 14
2 Jaromir Jagr 753 9 93 124 258 209 60 -6 4 -2 14 -9 0
3 Brett Hull 742 21 88 127 264 191 51 5 4 2 27 -30 -9
4 Marcel Dionne 729 27 109 109 215 207 62 -6 0 -13 6 14 -1
5 Phil Esposito 717 17 52 109 194 244 101 -2 -13 14 -1 13 -11
6 Mike Gartner 707 18 105 112 191 210 71 -2 18 -3 -23 6 5
7 Mark Messier 693 12 86 107 221 199 68 -6 2 -1 26 -11 -10
8 Steve Yzerman 691 17 91 118 200 206 59 -3 5 2 -3 7 -8
9 Mario Lemieux 690 27 84 106 205 202 66 0 -8 -11 11 10 -2
10 Teemu Selanne 686 10 74 124 232 215 31 -6 -15 -4 3 26 -4
11 Luc Robitaille 668 13 94 118 197 190 56 -4 2 4 -2 3 -3
12 Brendan Shanahan 658 13 65 101 221 212 46 -1 -5 -11 5 14 -1
13 Gordie Howe 641 17 69 112 180 208 55 -2 -2 9 -16 14 -2
14 Dave Andreychuk 639 11 86 137 203 166 36 -4 11 22 -2 -15 -13
15 Joe Sakic 625 13 77 132 210 161 32 -4 -2 19 10 -9 -13
16 Jarome Iginla 613 9 73 116 206 187 22 0 1 -2 -15 21 -6
17 Bobby Hull 611 8 56 98 186 199 63 -3 -4 10 2 2 -8
18 Dino Ciccarelli 609 17 94 88 176 184 50 -1 8 -11 -2 13 -6
19 Jari Kurri 589 13 63 96 151 193 73 -1 -4 9 -8 11 -7
20 Mark Recchi 577 28 74 102 171 170 32 11 1 -2 -11 11 -10
21 Mike Bossy 574 11 61 89 139 190 84 1 7 7 -25 9 3
22 Joe Nieuwendyk 566 7 57 93 185 166 58 -1 -1 1 2 -2 1
23 Mike Modano 565 11 58 106 191 161 38 1 -7 8 -3 0 1
24 Mats Sundin 563 12 88 103 170 160 30 -2 15 3 -13 4 -7
25 Guy Lafleur 560 11 38 84 148 180 99 0 -11 9 -2 1 3
26 Johnny Bucyk 556 16 60 84 166 175 55 -3 -1 0 9 8 -13
27 Ron Francis 550 18 66 105 165 143 53 -1 -8 9 -9 -5 14
28 Michel Goulet 548 16 74 88 167 154 49 -3 0 2 9 -1 -7
29 Stan Mikita 540 13 44 72 171 185 55 3 -10 -8 10 14 -8
30 Keith Tkachuk 538 13 63 109 175 150 28 -2 -6 8 -7 5 3
31 Frank Mahovlich 534 12 51 58 159 195 59 0 -5 -17 0 22 0
32 Alex Ovechkin 532 14 68 98 186 144 22 4 2 0 3 -1 -7
33 Bryan Trottier 524 7 53 71 144 188 61 -3 1 -6 -6 26 -13
34 Pat Verbeek 520 22 82 91 147 138 40 0 5 1 -14 1 8
35 Dale Hawerchuk 518 22 58 115 153 129 41 -1 -11 25 -1 -10 -2
36 Pierre Turgeon 515 10 56 87 179 147 36 -1 -5 -6 17 -3 -2
37 Jeremy Roenick 513 8 50 82 171 164 38 -4 -3 -1 -2 9 0
38 Gilbert Perreault 513 5 50 92 156 145 65 -8 -5 11 6 -6 1
39 Jean Beliveau 502 4 36 66 139 191 66 -3 -2 -2 -12 22 -3
40 Peter Bondra 502 8 54 101 155 141 43 -2 -10 9 -9 3 9
41 Joe Mullen 502 22 56 89 154 131 50 6 -4 7 10 -14 -5
42 Lanny McDonald 501 12 75 88 128 155 43 -7 0 1 -10 18 -2
43 Marian Hossa 500 8 39 83 161 163 46 2 -7 -6 -9 14 6
44 Glenn Anderson 497 6 38 66 136 188 63 -5 -17 -9 2 32 -3
45 Jean Ratelle 491 11 57 68 141 158 56 -2 12 -5 -2 1 -4
46 Norm Ullman 488 17 74 65 144 136 52 2 11 -20 -4 1 10
47 Brian Bellows 484 15 79 87 150 122 31 -1 0 3 9 -8 -4
48 Darryl Sittler 484 17 69 85 152 113 48 -3 0 4 15 -18 3
49 Sergei Fedorov 483 10 38 66 189 143 37 2 -9 -10 31 -6 -8
50 Patrick Marleau 481 5 57 74 164 154 27 -1 5 -13 2 16 -9

The goal totals are off by 1 or 2 for a couple of players, which is probably because of inconsistencies with the sources data.
Why does Gordie Howe have only 641 goal in this table?
As I understand, it's # of the game's goal, not team's goal, i.e. 10+ can easily be off 5-5 and 10-0 at the same time?

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12-23-2016, 11:47 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by morehockeystats View Post
Why does Gordie Howe have only 641 goal in this table?
Stats only go back to 1952-53.

Quote:
Originally Posted by morehockeystats View Post
As I understand, it's # of the game's goal, not team's goal, i.e. 10+ can easily be off 5-5 and 10-0 at the same time?
Correct. I was mostly interested in the first goal of the game stat, and then extended the concept to the remaining goals.

Thanks for posting the link to your stats on clutch goals. Many of the same names appear at the top. Marian Hossa ranked high for clutch late game goals - so he wasn't just scoring empty netters.

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12-23-2016, 11:52 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Stats only go back to 1952-53.



Correct. I was mostly interested in the first goal of the game stat, and then extended the concept to the remaining goals.

Thanks for posting the link to your stats on clutch goals. Many of the same names appear at the top. Marian Hossa ranked high for clutch late game goals - so he wasn't just scoring empty netters.
The latter ones appear to be Joe Thornton's speciality this season, he doesn't even always need to shoot to score them.

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12-26-2016, 08:03 AM
  #33
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Excellent work with relevant stats, and with quite comprehensive handling of the data of the topic.

This kind of stuff really pays all hours put for it to get it together.

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Old
01-01-2017, 05:24 PM
  #34
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Great work doing all of this research!

One thing that stands out is how "typical" Guy Lafleur's numbers are (that is, how there aren't major variances between expected and actual goals). Given that the 1970s Canadiens may have been the greatest team of all-time, I found it interesting that he didn't score more blowout win goals than expected.

Also interesting that Sakic has more playoff OT goals than regular season OT goals. I can't imagine that's true for many star players.

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01-01-2017, 07:21 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
Great work doing all of this research!

One thing that stands out is how "typical" Guy Lafleur's numbers are (that is, how there aren't major variances between expected and actual goals). Given that the 1970s Canadiens may have been the greatest team of all-time, I found it interesting that he didn't score more blowout win goals than expected.

Also interesting that Sakic has more playoff OT goals than regular season OT goals. I can't imagine that's true for many star players.
The expected numbers are calculated using the player's own team as a baseline. The intention was, among other things, to provide a fair comparison for players like Lafleur, Esposito and Gretzky who played on great offensive teams in a lot of blowouts.

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01-01-2017, 09:10 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
The expected numbers are calculated using the player's own team as a baseline. The intention was, among other things, to provide a fair comparison for players like Lafleur, Esposito and Gretzky who played on great offensive teams in a lot of blowouts.
Thanks for clarifying. In other words, Lafleur scored a lot of blowout win goals (#3 on the list by my count), but that was roughly what we would have expected given the strength of his team.

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01-03-2017, 03:49 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Here's another way to slice the data posted above. I've added the numbers for Tying Goals and Go-Ahead Goals and called them Game-Changing Goals - because they change the game from a tied state to one team having the advantage, or vice versa.

Here are all 50 players, sorted by Game-Changing Goals.

Brett Hull, Jaromir Jagr, and Teemu Selanne all move ahead of Wayne Gretzky on the all-time leaders when looking only at Game-Changing Goals. Something to keep in mind when discussing the top goal-scorers of all time.

Joe Sakic, Dave Andreychuk, and Mark Messier also had very impressive totals in Game-Changing Goals.

Rk Player Goals Game-Changing Goals Other Goals G-C VsExpected Other VsExpected
1 Brett Hull 742 391 351 29 -29
2 Jaromir Jagr 753 382 371 12 -12
3 Teemu Selanne 686 356 330 -1 1
4 Wayne Gretzky 895 350 545 -25 25
5 Joe Sakic 625 342 283 28 -28
6 Dave Andreychuk 639 340 299 21 -21
7 Mark Messier 693 328 365 25 -25
8 Marcel Dionne 729 324 405 -7 7
9 Brendan Shanahan 658 322 336 -6 6
10 Jarome Iginla 613 322 291 -16 16
11 Steve Yzerman 691 318 373 -1 1
12 Luc Robitaille 668 315 353 2 -2
13 Mario Lemieux 690 311 379 0 0
14 Phil Esposito 717 303 414 13 -13
15 Mike Gartner 707 303 404 -26 26
16 Mike Modano 565 297 268 6 -6
17 Gordie Howe 641 292 349 -8 8
18 Bobby Hull 578 284 326 11 -12
19 Keith Tkachuk 538 284 254 0 0
20 Alex Ovechkin 532 284 248 2 -2
21 Joe Nieuwendyk 566 278 288 3 -3
22 Mark Recchi 577 273 304 -13 13
23 Mats Sundin 563 273 290 -10 10
24 Ron Francis 550 270 280 0 0
25 Dale Hawerchuk 518 268 250 23 -23
26 Pierre Turgeon 515 266 249 11 -11
27 Dino Ciccarelli 609 264 345 -14 14
28 Peter Bondra 502 256 246 0 0
29 Michel Goulet 548 255 293 11 -11
30 Sergei Fedorov 483 255 228 21 -21
31 Jeremy Roenick 513 253 260 -2 2
32 Johnny Bucyk 556 250 306 9 -9
33 Gilbert Perreault 513 248 265 17 -17
34 Jari Kurri 589 247 342 1 -1
35 Marian Hossa 500 244 256 -15 15
36 Stan Mikita 540 243 297 1 -1
37 Joe Mullen 502 243 259 17 -17
38 Pat Verbeek 520 238 282 -13 13
39 Patrick Marleau 481 238 243 -11 11
40 Darryl Sittler 484 237 247 19 -19
41 Brian Bellows 484 237 247 12 -12
42 Guy Lafleur 560 232 328 7 -7
43 Mike Bossy 574 228 346 -19 19
44 Frank Mahovlich 534 217 317 -16 16
45 Lanny McDonald 501 216 285 -9 9
46 Bryan Trottier 524 215 309 -12 12
47 Jean Ratelle 491 209 282 -7 7
48 Norm Ullman 488 209 279 -24 24
49 Jean Beliveau 502 205 297 -14 14
50 Glenn Anderson 497 202 295 -8 8
Very interesting work. Did you also look at goals vs expected goals in close games vs. non-close games (with close defined as margin of <3 goals, e.g.)? This would be similar to game-changing, but with a slightly looser definition.

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01-05-2017, 09:23 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Very interesting and excellent work.Jean Beliveau to Wayne Gretzky comparable is very striking. The difference in first goals is1, favouring Gretzky but the difference in total goals is 3913. Also the 10+ column gives us a clear indication about playing time in blow-outs - Gretzky and Kurri are the only players over 10%. Likewise they have the losest percentages for first goals. Somewhat understandable given their knack for multiple goal games but revealing nonetheless.

It would be interesting to see how the first goal numbers are supported by assists on first goals scored by teammates. How many assists does Gretzky have on the first goal of the game and so forth.
Just because it's a 10+ goal of a game doesn't mean the game is a blowout, these could be goals in 6-5 games. It's 10+ in total goals for the game, not 10+ for their own team.

I think it's fair to say that as league scoring levels increase the first goal (or one-goal leads in general) become less valuable.

The benefit of getting a lead is that it may force your opponent to change their style of play...I wonder if in high scoring eras coaches would wait until down by 2-3 goals to change their style of play whereas in lower scoring eras coaches would make the change as soon as they found themselves down by 1 goal?


Last edited by Hawkey Town 18: 01-05-2017 at 09:31 AM.
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01-05-2017, 09:29 AM
  #39
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This is great work overpass. Do you have tables that show a player's goals in each of the 6 situations as a percentage of their total career goals?

I would be interested in seeing the same thing for trailing/leading/tied as well as game changing goals.

This project sure does make Brett Hull look good.

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01-07-2017, 11:35 AM
  #40
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Quick Check

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Just because it's a 10+ goal of a game doesn't mean the game is a blowout, these could be goals in 6-5 games. It's 10+ in total goals for the game, not 10+ for their own team.

I think it's fair to say that as league scoring levels increase the first goal (or one-goal leads in general) become less valuable.

The benefit of getting a lead is that it may force your opponent to change their style of play...I wonder if in high scoring eras coaches would wait until down by 2-3 goals to change their style of play whereas in lower scoring eras coaches would make the change as soon as they found themselves down by 1 goal?
Quick check, two random seasons from each of Beliveau's and Gretzky's careers show a rough total of 80 such games where combined the two teams scored 10+ goals. about 18% were ties or one goal differentials. Even then there are few back and forth games, some late game rallies making it close.

The high scoring games 10+ tend to point to a fatigue factor especially when a contending teams gets blown out by a bottom third team.

Key element seems to be first goal scored by the home or away team. Away team scoring the first goal has a distinct advantage, since their coach can simply run his best checking line as first option off the bench and keep them on the ice. Home team coach then has a choice - play the scoring line against the checking line or sit them on the bench and reducing their TOI.

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01-09-2017, 02:22 PM
  #41
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Not as in-depth as your research but Mats Sundin seemed to be a right moment goal scorer.

He is the Leafs career leader in overtime goals (15) and game winning goals (79).

Not sure if that has to do with "clutch" or just being the best player on the team, meaning the puck was on his stick more than anyone elses.

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01-09-2017, 02:49 PM
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Not as in-depth as your research but Mats Sundin seemed to be a right moment goal scorer.

He is the Leafs career leader in overtime goals (15) and game winning goals (79).

Not sure if that has to do with "clutch" or just being the best player on the team, meaning the puck was on his stick more than anyone elses.
I, personally, have a problem with the NHL GWG definition. For me, the true GWG is the goal that breaks a tie and remains unanswered. Otherwise it's a subject to really random factors, such as a 19:55 goal scored by the opposition with empty net to cut it down from 2-4 to 3-4, or a game that goes 1-0,2-0,3-0,3-1,4-1,5-1,5-2. In such games I don't see a true GWG worthy of noting at all.

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01-11-2017, 04:05 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by morehockeystats View Post
I, personally, have a problem with the NHL GWG definition. For me, the true GWG is the goal that breaks a tie and remains unanswered. Otherwise it's a subject to really random factors, such as a 19:55 goal scored by the opposition with empty net to cut it down from 2-4 to 3-4, or a game that goes 1-0,2-0,3-0,3-1,4-1,5-1,5-2. In such games I don't see a true GWG worthy of noting at all.
I'd go as far as saying that any goal not scored in the 3rd period or overtime is not a ''true'' game winning goal, on top of your definition.

For me, a ''true'' game winning goal, insofar as we name it that way to define it as a clutch goal, is a goal in the 3rd period where the game is tied and the player breaks that tie, with the other team never answering.Maybe a late 2nd period goal who fits those criterias can qualify too, but the further we go from the end of the game, the less comfortable I am with it.

Maybe there's a neat way to weight the value of any such game winning goal (based on your definition) based on how temporally far from the end of the game it is.The further from the end of the game, the less value it has as a ''clutch goal''.

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01-11-2017, 04:16 PM
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I'd go as far as saying that any goal not scored in the 3rd period or overtime is not a ''true'' game winning goal, on top of your definition.

For me, a ''true'' game winning goal, insofar as we name it that way to define it as a clutch goal, is a goal in the 3rd period where the game is tied and the player breaks that tie, with the other team never answering.Maybe a late 2nd period goal who fits those criterias can qualify too, but the further we go from the end of the game, the less comfortable I am with it.

Maybe there's a neat way to weight the value of any such game winning goal (based on your definition) based on how temporally far from the end of the game it is.The further from the end of the game, the less value it has as a ''clutch goal''.
On my website I do a very rough implementation of that, in that I have three factors:
a GEG (Game-Ending Goal) is worth 2.5 pts.
a non-answered GWG in the last 3 minutes is worth 2 pts.
a non-answered GWG otherwise is worth 1 pts.
However, I like your idea of finer scaling and will think of implementing it, thanks.

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01-16-2017, 04:42 PM
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Ralph Spoilsport
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Maybe there's a neat way to weight the value of any such game winning goal (based on your definition) based on how temporally far from the end of the game it is.The further from the end of the game, the less value it has as a ''clutch goal''.
I've seen it proposed elsewhere on this forum: the clutch value of any goal can be measured by how much it increases the scoring team's expectation of winning, depending on the effect it has on the lead and the amount of time left on the clock.

All it needs is someone with access to the data and a lot of time on their hands.

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01-16-2017, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by morehockeystats View Post
On my website I do a very rough implementation of that, in that I have three factors:
a GEG (Game-Ending Goal) is worth 2.5 pts.
a non-answered GWG in the last 3 minutes is worth 2 pts.
a non-answered GWG otherwise is worth 1 pts.
However, I like your idea of finer scaling and will think of implementing it, thanks.
Seems to me an overtime goal should be the least valuable…how clutch can it be when the game will just be decided by a shootout anyway even if no one scores? More importantly though each team is already guaranteed a point in the standings, so unlike a regulation time winning/tying goal the extra point doesn't come at the opponent's expense.

Talking regular season of course. Playoffs is a different story.

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01-17-2017, 12:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph Spoilsport View Post
Seems to me an overtime goal should be the least valuable…how clutch can it be when the game will just be decided by a shootout anyway even if no one scores? More importantly though each team is already guaranteed a point in the standings, so unlike a regulation time winning/tying goal the extra point doesn't come at the opponent's expense.

Talking regular season of course. Playoffs is a different story.
The OT goal decides the game, without leaving your opponent any chance to respond.

But everyone is welcome to rank the goals differently, moreover I provide breakdown by goal types.

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01-24-2017, 12:13 PM
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Great job gentlemen.

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01-28-2017, 11:08 PM
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Those are interesting stats. It would be interesting, I think, to see 'Go-ahead', 'Rally', 'Tying', etc. goals for each player expressed as a percentage of their totals, rather than in raw terms.

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02-07-2017, 12:16 AM
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I gathered a team-based statistic for allowing a goal quickly after scoring a lead-changing goal and vice versa. Quite a timely goal scoring metric imho.

http://morehockeystats.com/teams/relaxation

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