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The math to the playoffs

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Old
01-14-2008, 09:42 PM
  #26
Robert
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
The good news is that we play SL 3 times, so we have the ablity to make those games-in-hand meaningless....
Good point sir.... We do have the power to slow them down. I hope we do.

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01-14-2008, 10:04 PM
  #27
Dawg8
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The best way for the CBJ to make the playoffs is to not have to play Nashville again and since that it not the case, I would settle for 90 pts. that would be the best season so far.

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01-14-2008, 10:10 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert View Post
Good point sir.... We do have the power to slow them down. I hope we do.
7 games over .500 is a tall order the rest of the season. This team would need to swing a deal or two if they hope to keep pace, that means surrendering some prospects and probably younger players who are already on the roster.

I still think it won't happen this season, due to the amount of younger players we have that are learning on the job, a new front office regime with a bit of a lengthened leash a little, etc.

I don't see Scott risking the future for a quick fix this season, maybe next though....

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Old
01-14-2008, 10:53 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg8 View Post
The best way for the CBJ to make the playoffs is to not have to play Nashville again and since that it not the case, I would settle for 90 pts. that would be the best season so far.
I disagree...
Bring'em on!
Those are 4 pt wins.
And if we can't beat Nashville, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

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Old
01-14-2008, 11:00 PM
  #30
leesmith
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The fact that it's the middle of January and we're actually talking about this is a sign of progress by itself.

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01-14-2008, 11:36 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
The fact that it's the middle of January and we're actually talking about this is a sign of progress by itself.
True....

Opinion: I still cringe when reading stuff about this fathom sacrifice for the future. Where did this line of thinking come from anyway? The Native American Mounds near Miami?

Oh well, that's immaterial. What more can be said, the future is now, there's never been a better time in the Jackets decade of history to be bold. I suppose we can wait but this glorious future many folks are worried about sacrificing happened back in 2004 and 2006, we are living the future now.


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Old
01-15-2008, 08:13 AM
  #32
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Last season Calgary got into the playoffs with a very strong home record at 30-9-2 for 62 points and a 13-20-8 (34 pts) on the road. So getting into the playoffs with a bad record is doable if you match it with an impressive home record.

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Old
01-16-2008, 09:44 AM
  #33
FiveHole23
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My maths to the playoffs.

Current we have 50 points.

14 on the road. (20 games) ~ .7 points per game
36 at home. (26) ~ 1.4 points per game.

Its going to take 95 points to get in this year.

We have 21 more road games and 15 home games.

So on current pace we are in for 21 more points at home and 15 points on the road.
21+15+50 = 86 points

The Blue Jackets are typically better in the second half and actually have something to play for this year so lets hope they can do this. I honestly think the next 4 games are the most important of the year. Dallas, Phx, and Col are all hovering around the 8th spot for final projected. We get the easy point in CHI on the 5th night no questions asked.

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Old
01-16-2008, 10:18 AM
  #34
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62.5% of remaining points will get them to the playoffs

36 games left x2 points== 72 available points
95 points for a playoff spot
need 45 out of 72 points or 62.5%

If the CBJ had 3 more road wins, they would be tied with ANA for the fourth spot.

How big are those wins now?

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Old
01-16-2008, 10:25 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbjrocks View Post
If the CBJ had 3 more road wins, they would be tied with ANA for the fourth spot.

How big are those wins now?
What this means is... (see below)

__________________
"Every game, every point is a necessity." -- Ty Conklin, January 2007
"I'll have a chance to compete for the post of first issue. This is the most important thing." -- Sergei Bobrovsky, June 2012

Last edited by Double-Shift Lassť: 01-16-2008 at 10:57 AM.
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Old
01-16-2008, 10:41 AM
  #36
orthosrgn2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbjrocks View Post
62.5% of remaining points will get them to the playoffs

36 games left x2 points== 72 available points
95 points for a playoff spot
need 45 out of 72 points or 62.5%

If the CBJ had 3 more road wins, they would be tied with ANA for the fourth spot.

How big are those wins now?
I gotta go back to school and review my differential equations!!!!!

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Old
01-16-2008, 11:23 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbjrocks View Post
62.5% of remaining points will get them to the playoffs

36 games left x2 points== 72 available points
95 points for a playoff spot
need 45 out of 72 points or 62.5%

If the CBJ had 3 more road wins, they would be tied with ANA for the fourth spot.

How big are those wins now?

I see the easy way through the Math.

36 x2 =72

We have 50

72+50 = 122 points and we make the playoffs.

Bet we will not be the 8th seed either.

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Old
01-16-2008, 11:57 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBJrumble View Post
The Blue Jackets are typically better in the second half and actually have something to play for this year so lets hope they can do this.
Usually in hockey when you improve in second half comparing to the first, means that you have no pressure because you have lost your chances earlier. This time Jackets have the chance to get into playoffs, so it will be tougher because teams play much tighter game against us. There will be no element of suprise...

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Old
01-16-2008, 02:21 PM
  #39
orthosrgn2
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All this mathematical masturbation is worthless! Play them one game at a time. Once the results of that game is known, move to the next. All you can do is take care of your own business.

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Old
01-16-2008, 03:23 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Handyy View Post
Usually in hockey when you improve in second half comparing to the first, means that you have no pressure because you have lost your chances earlier. This time Jackets have the chance to get into playoffs, so it will be tougher because teams play much tighter game against us. There will be no element of suprise...
DING-DING-DING! We have a winner...

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Old
01-16-2008, 03:58 PM
  #41
jacketsgeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Handyy View Post
Usually in hockey when you improve in second half comparing to the first, means that you have no pressure because you have lost your chances earlier. This time Jackets have the chance to get into playoffs, so it will be tougher because teams play much tighter game against us. There will be no element of suprise...
Spot on Handyy...one thing we've already seen is fewer backup goalies in our opponent's net. Hell, we saw the All-Star goalie last night - and beat him

Right now, though, I'm feeling pretty good. I really believe the boys have come together (perhaps behind Pazzy's AS slight - but, whatever) and are playing as a team.


ortho - no masterbating on the boards....

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Old
01-16-2008, 04:03 PM
  #42
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That last home and home against the Blues at the end of the year will be...critical.

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Old
01-16-2008, 05:02 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orthosrgn2 View Post
All this mathematical masturbation is worthless! Play them one game at a time. Once the results of that game is known, move to the next. All you can do is take care of your own business.
Winner of the Crash Davis sound alike contest.

As posted before--- teams take the season in a series of 10 game blocks. You need 12 to 13 points in a ten game series to keep on the playoff pace.

Right now--- I'm looking at the next five games and they have to take 6 or 7 points to stay on pace. 5 points is not good enough on this trip...

In other words..they need to win 62.5% of their available points on this trip

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Old
01-17-2008, 12:58 AM
  #44
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History shows that there's a pretty good correlation between goal differential and overall record at the end of the season; a huge swing one way or another would be regarded as lucky or unlucky. Based on that....

Columbus isn't overly lucky (+2 GD, 22-18-6 record)
St. Louis is extremely lucky (-3 GD, 22-16-6 record)
Minnesota is extremely lucky (0 GD, 26-17-3 record)
Calgary is fairly lucky (-3 GD, 23-17-8 record)
Colorado is somewhat lucky (+4 GD, 25-18-3 record)
Phoenix is lucky (-2 GD, 24-20-1 record)
Anaheim is lucky (+1 GD, 25-17-6 record)

With 35-40 games left on the slate, there's obviously a lot of things that will bounce out. The possibility of six conference opponents normalizing into a slump along the way and boosting the CBJ indirectly is very real, which is why I'm not chomping at the bit hoping for a move to be made.

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Old
01-17-2008, 01:06 AM
  #45
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Have I mentioned lately how much I hate math?

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Old
01-17-2008, 08:35 AM
  #46
orthosrgn2
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With so many teams vying for a spot in the West, anyone that marginally exceeds 50% is going to be "better than the field". Every game we play is a must game for which we need to glean 2 pts. Sorry about the "Crash Davis" mentality but it is true! The anathema as I see it is the "3 pt games". Each time an extra point is awarded it gives the losing team too much for their loss. This makes it hard to separate the wheat form the chaff. (Got that from Farmer's Only.com)

Because there are so many teams still in the hunt, I believe no one is willing to part with players. Everyone is still hoping to be a buyer in this market and that is presenting a challenge to Howson as well as the other GMs.

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Old
02-24-2008, 12:05 PM
  #47
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When you project everyone out to an equal number of games, we are not 5 points out and in 11th place, we are actually 7 1/2 points out (8) in 14th place.

We need 26 points in the last 18 games.

Does anyone see 12-4-2? Or 13-5?

I hope.

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