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2016-17 Rangers Prospects Thread #3 (Stats/Info/Links in Post #1; Updated 3.12.17)

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Old
02-17-2017, 07:36 AM
  #451
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Originally Posted by Mac n Gs View Post
Huh, weird. Making the jump from beer league to TPS is a great step

Really happy for Tarmo. Let's hope it works out
Yeah, the characterization of Mestis as "close to beer league" is laughably absurd.

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02-17-2017, 08:08 AM
  #452
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Originally Posted by nyr2k2 View Post
Yeah, the characterization of Mestis as "close to beer league" is laughably absurd.
Basing it off average salaries is worse. If you only stat watch without even seeing a kid play, it's probably best to just keep quiet rather than making declarative statements.

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02-17-2017, 08:15 AM
  #453
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RLR also had jessiman #4 in 2003 and compared him to joe thornton LOL
True, however so did ISS, Central Scouting etc etc. They all missed the boat on Hugh.

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02-17-2017, 08:21 AM
  #454
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06 draft guide final. Woodlief had great things to say about Anisimov. Pegged him as a first rounder for sure. He was taken 54th overall. Ill dig up the guide and post his comments on him when I get home.

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02-17-2017, 11:09 AM
  #455
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Originally Posted by nyr2k2 View Post
Yeah, the characterization of Mestis as "close to beer league" is laughably absurd.
Mestis pays roughly the same salaries as the FHL and the SPHL. These leagues are semi-beer leagues. They are on par with high end beer leagues.

Mestis is below Allsvenskan, which is at best equal to the ECHL, so Mestis is below the ECHL. Again pointing to the very low quality of hockey there.

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02-17-2017, 11:13 AM
  #456
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Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
Mestis pays roughly the same salaries as the FHL and the SPHL. These leagues are semi-beer leagues. They are on par with high end beer leagues.

Mestis is below Allsvenskan, which is at best equal to the ECHL, so Mestis is below the ECHL. Again pointing to the very low quality of hockey there.
I don't get this fascination with comparing leagues, it means nothing. Reunanen has done well in the 2nd division in Finland and has earned a call up to Liiga, who cares if Mestis is a lower level then Allsvenskan or ECHL? There are D+1 prospects who play juniors in europe or some weird leagues in NA because they're going to college, doesn't mean they're done as prospects. Also, using salaries to compare leagues seems like a very bad way of doing it.

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02-17-2017, 11:24 AM
  #457
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Don't Swiss league players make more than AHL players on average? Guess the Swiss league is better than the AHL.

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02-17-2017, 11:27 AM
  #458
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I'm thinking an 18 year old Finn is much more likely to play in a Finnish league than Allsvenkan which is a Swedish league. The Mestis and Allsvenkan seem to serve the same purpose for their respective countries--kind of like the second tier league. An 18 year old Finn is too young to play in the ECHL or even the FHL/SPHL. I don't understand why these leagues even come up as subject matter. If Reunanen came over and played in a CHL league--that's something he could do but maybe missing almost all of last season with an injury kind of killed that.

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02-17-2017, 11:49 AM
  #459
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Originally Posted by Mac n Gs View Post
Don't Swiss league players make more than AHL players on average? Guess the Swiss league is better than the AHL.
Terrible argument. When you get several points, you cannot find an exception to one of these arguments and conclude that you won.

There are multiple reasons to think Mestis is a low league, one of which is salaries, but also the quality of the league above it in Finland, that it does not produce NHLers, etc.

Also, the reasoning here is not merely that higher salaries correlate with better players (which it does 9 out of 10 times). In this case, Mestis pays a salary nobody can survive on. An American player making $150k in the AHL who can make $200k in Switzerland may stay home for the convenience of not traveling 4,500 miles. A player making $8k a year in Mestis who can make $60k in Allsvenskan by traveling a few hundred miles and being able to go home at least once a week will prefer that option over living in the parents basement.


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02-17-2017, 11:55 AM
  #460
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Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
Terrible argument. When you get several points, you cannot find an exception to one of these arguments and conclude that you won.

There are multiple reasons to think Mestis is a low league, one of which is salaries, but also the quality of the league above it in Finland, that it does not produce NHLers, etc.

Also, the reasoning here is not merely that higher salaries correlate with better players (which it does 9 out of 10 times). In this case, Mestis pays a salary nobody can survive on. An American player making $150k in the AHL who can make $200k in Switzerland may stay home for the convenience of not traveling 4,500 miles. A player making $8k a year in Mestis who can make $60k in Allsvenskan by traveling a few hundred miles and being able to go home at least once a week will prefer that option over living in the parents basement.
I feel like you are just taking numbers out of your ass by now. A young player in Mestis can't get $60k in Allsvenskan, not even close.

The average salary in Timrå IK (middle-ish team in Allsvenskan) is about $25k a year. The younger players get less then that in general so you do the math.

It's quite clear that you don't know enough about the leagues in europe to make these statements you do, so maybe stop?

Edit: It's also quite common to combine school and sports through the 12th grade here in Northern Europe so the young players are likely going to 'hockey high-school'.


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Old
02-17-2017, 12:29 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by ManUtdTobbe View Post
I feel like you are just taking numbers out of your ass by now. A young player in Mestis can't get $60k in Allsvenskan, not even close.

The average salary in Timrå IK (middle-ish team in Allsvenskan) is about $25k a year. The younger players get less then that in general so you do the math.
Ok, the $60k amount was on a high end, but $30k seems about average based on reports. $30k is average in Allsvenskan. That's a livable salary. Mestis does not pay a livable salary. The average salary in Mestis is 6,046 euros, which is $6,400. In the FHL, the average salary is about $300 a week, so the FHL (which is a semi-beer league) actually pays more than Mestis. Mestis simply does not pay anything resembling a salary one can live on. They give players beer and chips money. Almost half the Mestis players report having another job.


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02-17-2017, 12:39 PM
  #462
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Ok, the $60k amount was on a high end, but $30k seems about average based on reports. $30k is average in Allsvenskan. That's a livable salary. Mestis does not pay a livable salary.
Still, my point was that an 18 yo Finnish player won't get the average salary if they choose to go play in Allsvenskan, they'll get close to minimum salary, which means it's not really an option. This obviously varies depending on the quality and especially the reputation of said young player.

He can't just hop on the train and knock on the door and say that he wants a $25k a year contract with free weekends so he can go visit home.

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02-17-2017, 12:54 PM
  #463
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Originally Posted by ManUtdTobbe View Post
Still, my point was that an 18 yo Finnish player won't get the average salary if they choose to go play in Allsvenskan, they'll get close to minimum salary, which means it's not really an option. This obviously varies depending on the quality and especially the reputation of said young player.
Ok, but if an 18 year old won't get the average salary in Allsvenskan, I bet he would not get that in Mestis unless he's one of the top players. If you're an average Mestis player, like a second pair defenseman, but you have no experience, odds are you're getting less than average salary there also. Either way, even if you can get $25k as opposed to $5k (or even $10k) by traveling a few hundred miles, you do it because you can at least live on $25k, maybe with a roommate, but you can live on it; you can't live on $7k.

There's a reason Allsvenskan produces some NHLers, while Mestis does not. Based on all the evidence, it's a league that is roughly on par with the FHL/SPHL, give or take a little.

Stromwall and Kovacs were top Allsvenskan players last year. They are borderline AHL/ECHL players as role players in Hartford, the worst team in the AHL. On a top team, who knows if they'd stick in the AHL. And if anything, given their age, they may be better this year than last. This (among other reasons) tells you how much better the AHL is than Allsvenskan. Meanwhile, Allsvenskan is significantly above Mestis. Do the math.


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Old
02-17-2017, 12:56 PM
  #464
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My argument is terrible, yet I'm literally using the same logic you did. You don't watch the kid play, so don't talk about him and write him off like you can actually critique and analyze his game. It's pretty simple.

Remember your garbage diatribe when we drafted Fontaine after you never saw him play? I do.

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02-17-2017, 12:56 PM
  #465
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Congrats Tarmo! Make us proud.

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02-17-2017, 01:03 PM
  #466
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Ok, but if an 18 year old won't get the average salary in Allsvenskan, I bet he would not get that in Mestis unless he's one of the top players. If you're an average Mestis player, like a second pair defenseman, but you have no experience, odds are you're getting less than average salary there also. Either way, even if you can get $25k as opposed to $5k (or even $10k) by traveling a few hundred miles, you do it because you can at least live on $25k, maybe with a roommate, but you can live on it; you can't live on $7k.

There's a reason Allsvenskan produces some NHLers, while Mestis does not. Based on all the evidence, it's a league that is roughly on par with the FHL/SPHL, give or take a little.
Gotta remember that the young players in Mestis (like Tarmo) are usually (always?) signed by a Liiga club and loaned out to Mestis. Yeah, Allsvenskan produces some NHLers because it's a higher level then Mestis, but the good players in Mestis get brought up to Liiga sooner or later (see Tarmo now) and Liiga does produce NHLers.... Think of Mestis as a development league when it comes to the young players in there, they're just there to get experience against men before they're ready for Liiga, it's much better then to play juniors.

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02-17-2017, 01:04 PM
  #467
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Originally Posted by Mac n Gs View Post
Remember your garbage diatribe when we drafted Fontaine after you never saw him play? I do.
Yeah, my diatribes are always garbage, then a few years go by and I'm proven right, but by then we've moved on to hyping the next crappy prospect.

Do you remember my diatribes last year that there's no way Kovacs jumps from Allsvenskan to the NHL this season? Do you remember me writing (repeatedly) that him and Stromwall will be lucky to be competent AHL third liners this season? Do you remember me being told that I don't watch Allsvenskan and therefore my opinion is BS. Do you remember how I was proven accurate? No, I don't remember that either because we've now moved on to who, Fontaine? Ronning? Tarmo?

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02-17-2017, 01:05 PM
  #468
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I really feel like ur too hung up on which league a guy plays in or how many points he scores or salaries etc etc...

Take the Strömwall/Kovács example, yes they're bordeline players on a bad AHL-team right now, but they also have a bad coach who plays a stone age dump and chase system which doesn't suit them at all. If they were on a team with a modern coach who likes skill player maybe they'd be middle-6 players in the AHL?

You make these broad statements with very little to back them up.

Edit: I agree that most people are too positive when it comes to prospects, but on the flipside you are very doom and gloom and write prospects off even when they show some good tools and progression each season. Most of us know that any player selected outside of the 1st round is a longshot of becoming a regular NHLer, doesn't mean we have to be super negative about them. Take a guy like Tim Gettinger, 5th (?) rounder who has improved quite a bit this season, does this mean he's suddenly a lock to become an NHLer? Ofcouse not, but it does mean he was probably a good pick at that time given his size, tools and progression up until this point.


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02-17-2017, 01:10 PM
  #469
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Originally Posted by ManUtdTobbe View Post
1. Day is producing very well at 5v5, very nice to see that so many of his points are primary points, he's also improved his overall game quite a lot. He's a project but it looks like a very good value pick.

2. He's playing in a weak league, sure, but from all the reports i've read he's playing good hockey, wouldn't give up on him yet, it's not all about the points. Looks like he's getting promoted to Liiga, let's see if he can stick there. https://twitter.com/FINjrhockey/stat...56385598595072

3. Gettinger is improved in just about everything, uses his body better, has improved his skating leaps and bounds and his scoring has taken a step aswell. His 5v5 numbers look really good for a late round pick. He also shoots the puck a lot 5v5 which i like very much.

4. Fontaine is also much improved, he was drafted as a two-way leadership guy (which is what is it, not a big fan but whatever) and has improved his scoring rate by quite a big margin. A very good skater and has some decent hands on him aswell. His Rel.GF% is really high and his scoring rates also look good /60.

5. Looks like a good pick, very impressive rookie season.

6. Ronning is having a really good season on a very bad team, his 5v5 /60 numbers look really solid, also has a very good Rel.GF%. He's a real pest on the forecheck and a very good skater, reminds me a lot of Jesper Fast and Justin Fontaine on the forecheck, completely relentless. Also has a great shot. Is he likely to make it? No, but he has some nice tools and it's WAY to early to write him off.

Edit: Overall i just think ur way too harsch in your views here and i think it's lazy to ONLY look at PPG when evaluating prospects in 2017 when he have access to more in depth stats then that.

Here's a link to Josh Khalfins visuals: https://public.tableau.com/profile/joshua.khalfin#!/

My conclusion, i think we had a very good draft given the picks we had, time will tell how it plays out though but i'm happy with the selections overall.
Agreed. Very good post!!

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02-17-2017, 01:12 PM
  #470
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Agreed. Very good post!!
Gotta try to balance out Beacons negativity, i'm probably a bit too positive but my starting point is that anyone picked outside of the 1st round is a long shot. I'm happy with a pick if i see the tools for an NHLer and i see progression, preferrably backed up by some good stats.

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02-17-2017, 01:18 PM
  #471
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Ok, but if an 18 year old won't get the average salary in Allsvenskan, I bet he would not get that in Mestis unless he's one of the top players. If you're an average Mestis player, like a second pair defenseman, but you have no experience, odds are you're getting less than average salary there also. Either way, even if you can get $25k as opposed to $5k (or even $10k) by traveling a few hundred miles, you do it because you can at least live on $25k, maybe with a roommate, but you can live on it; you can't live on $7k.

There's a reason Allsvenskan produces some NHLers, while Mestis does not. Based on all the evidence, it's a league that is roughly on par with the FHL/SPHL, give or take a little.

Stromwall and Kovacs were top Allsvenskan players last year. They are borderline AHL/ECHL players as role players in Hartford, the worst team in the AHL. On a top team, who knows if they'd stick in the AHL. And if anything, given their age, they may be better this year than last. This (among other reasons) tells you how much better the AHL is than Allsvenskan. Meanwhile, Allsvenskan is significantly above Mestis. Do the math.
It's because of their terrible coach in Gernander. I think next year, they'll be better off. NYR really needs to find a better option behind the bench, however.

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02-17-2017, 01:19 PM
  #472
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Originally Posted by ManUtdTobbe View Post
Gotta try to balance out Beacons negativity, i'm probably a bit too positive but my starting point is that anyone picked outside of the 1st round is a long shot. I'm happy with a pick if i see the tools for an NHLer and i see progression, preferrably backed up by some good stats.
Progression in a player is the reason why they sign ELC's. There are reasons why Iverson and McColgan never got contracts. The 2016 draft class have had obvious progressions, as you stated before in response to Beacon's analysis.

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02-17-2017, 01:20 PM
  #473
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Yeah, my diatribes are always garbage, then a few years go by and I'm proven right, but by then we've moved on to hyping the next crappy prospect.

Do you remember my diatribes last year that there's no way Kovacs jumps from Allsvenskan to the NHL this season? Do you remember me writing (repeatedly) that him and Stromwall will be lucky to be competent AHL third liners this season? Do you remember me being told that I don't watch Allsvenskan and therefore my opinion is BS. Do you remember how I was proven accurate? No, I don't remember that either because we've now moved on to who, Fontaine? Ronning? Tarmo?
Give another example, because there were quite a few HFNYRers who were surprised and disagreed with this move by the organization. Maybe St. Croix whom you called a bust-candidate despite putting up better than decent numbers in CHL.

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02-17-2017, 01:22 PM
  #474
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Just a question, I do not pretend to be any expert on the prospects and really only like that the Rangers have some, and wish they had more, but all the same if Gernander is so bad why do the prospects that come up form the AHL play relatively well?

Were they just so talented it was inevitable?

Just from reading and seeing bits and pieces, it seems to me that the players down there are sort of not on par with what other teams have, so wouldn't that sort of fall outside of the realm of coaching?

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02-17-2017, 01:28 PM
  #475
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Originally Posted by ManUtdTobbe View Post
I don't get this fascination with comparing leagues, it means nothing.
It means everything. To determine how well a player is doing, step 1 is to figure out the opposition. If you are an average AHLer at the age of 19, you have a real chance to play in the NHL. If you're an average FHLer at the age of 19, you're probably going to wind up a gym teacher in a random local HS. Instead, we hear reports that someone is doing well in some low level league and the response is excitement that a player is a real good prospect. If you don't know the opposition, "reports" mean nothing.

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