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Klefbom: The bombs are back in town.

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Old
03-20-2017, 05:35 PM
  #151
GMofOilers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
Klefbom has been killing it in the analytics department this year (as well as last year too). WAR (wins above replacement) is a stat that tries to tie in all aspects of the game to see the value a player brings. So doesnt just look at possession, or offense or even strength. More or less brings all that together, since to be a good player you have to bring it in all aspects.

Here is the WAR rankings of D in the NHL, Klefbom is.... 3rd best. Behind Hedman and Karlsson and above OEL.


Even TSN is getting in on the action:


Here is the actual graph to visualize it. Almost neck and neck with Karlsson



Klefboms value actually comes predominantly from defence. But also, as discussed above, he provides great value from not taking penalties. Whats actually more impressive is that he ranks this high, yet his impact on PP is amongst the lowest. Which is pretty good considering hes only just started getting top PP time and has impressed doing it. Over a full year with PP time he could improve in this category even more

Obvious disclaimer: Stats arent everything, have to include actually wat...yadda yadda, you know it. But for anyone who values analytics this is extremely cool Klefbom is ranked so high in this. This should not be looked at a definitive ranking of NHL D, but should be looked as a major credit for Klefbom.
Kelfbom' defensive value comes pretty much from Larsson IMO. If you watch Klefbom if he has one weak spot in his game, its inside his own blueline.

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03-20-2017, 05:45 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Kelfbom' defensive value comes pretty much from Larsson IMO. If you watch Klefbom if he has one weak spot in his game, its inside his own blueline.
You and several others overstate this IMO.

This is hardly a consistent shift-by-shift problem for him, and while the consistency isn't quite there yet, he was just as much of an analytical darling with such prolific defenseman as Justin Schultz as he is with Adam Larsson.

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03-20-2017, 05:47 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Kelfbom' defensive value comes pretty much from Larsson IMO. If you watch Klefbom if he has one weak spot in his game, its inside his own blueline.
I agree Larsson helps out, but honestly Id question how much, IMO certiantly not the primary/overly main reason

Chances against per/60:

Klefbom-Larsson together (894 TOI): 56.19
Klefbom apart (~300 TOI): 50.81
Larsson apart (~300 TOI): 56.30

So actually when Klefbom is not with Larsson he gives up few chances against. When Larsson is not with Klefbom he allows chances at a similar rate. Klefboms decrease in chances against is pretty noticeable, but right now still a smaller sample size. Its the same thing for CF% (49.6 together, Lasson 49.7 apart, Klefbom 52.7 apart)

Klefbom last year had a CA/60 of 52.39, so still good at preventing chances against last year when his partner was Schultz

If there is one thing I very much disagree with HFOil majority on- its the Klefbom-Larsson evaluations. For me Klefbom has just been a tier above Larsson. Larsson continually reverts to Klefbom for all puck moving. Klefbom gets help from Larsson defensively but not that same degree as Larsson gets help offensively. Larsson gets a ton of hype because he is a physical D (is pretty valuable tho). Klefbom on the other hand is a way more positionally based D. So Larsson going out of position to hit a guy either leads to people loving him for the hit, or if goal gets scored/shot goes on net hes overlooked because he still made a hit. For a guy like Klefbom who waits for play to come to him with great positioning; he gets the opposite. Not many people cheer when Klefbom was it a great position to cut off a pass (because it was a play that didnt happen). But in the time when a goal gets scored for a player he was supposed to cover he gets all the blame because the highlights will sho whim standing there. So gets little of the love but majority of the blame

With that being said, Larsson still has provided a ton of value for Klefbom.


Last edited by Aceboogie: 03-20-2017 at 05:55 PM.
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03-20-2017, 05:48 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
Hes a pretty efficient D and pretty aware of his surroundings. I think part of the reason is he allows the play to come to him, rather than getting out of position trying to force a play defensively. So will never get tripping calls for losing control of stick. Also a great skater so never has to hook or hold. Bit fo a blessing and a curse. Non aggressiveness can give the opposing forwards more time and space, but it also allows him to never really get caught out of position. I didnt realize his PIMs were so low tho. I guess its because Larsson is the more aggressive of the pairing and will go into the corners more often

Im actually more suprised by Larssons 42. Ranks him 122nd in the league. For a guy that plays a pretty mean game and pretty in your face, im suprised hes tied with a guy like Ekman-Larsson
Larrsson is pretty good at doing just enough to not get called for penaltys

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03-20-2017, 05:57 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by Kalost View Post
Larrsson is pretty good at doing just enough to not get called for penaltys
Agreed there. He is great at being physical when puck is present and play is goingon. But as soon as forward doesnt have the puck he disengages. A ton of penalties are called when puck is gone and player does an extra jab or slash

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03-20-2017, 06:03 PM
  #156
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That TSN graphic is interesting mostly in the names that it omits. No Burns, Doughty, PK, Weber or any of the other usual suspects. I'm guessing this is because of the relative depth and strength in the blue line on those players' teams?

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03-20-2017, 06:07 PM
  #157
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Klefbom was getting a ton of love even last year (this ranking done last August 2016, by a neutral observant too):

Top 20 defenseman

Klefbom ranked #20

Quote:
Poor Oscar Klefbom. Normally, stud 23 year old number 1 D are given heaps of praise. But Klefbom plays for the Oilers. In his first season, he could've been hockey Jesus and it still wouldn't have mattered since his team had Ben Scrivens putting up an .892 as their starter. And he spent 3/4ths of his second season on the injury bench. In his absence, the Seidenberg-tier Darnell Nurse was given top pairing D minutes. So, you can be forgiven for not associating the Edmonton Oilers with good defensemen.

But, if you sit down and look at the 1.25 seasons Klefbom has played, you'll find a big bright spot on the Oiler's blue line. Knocks against him are mostly limited to his special teams play. He's a big body and is good in his one zone on the PK, but on the PP he just doesn't have the offense chops to be a good QB. But at 5 on 5? His xGD60RelTM was 14th among all D last year, ahead of some big names you'll find further down this list. He's been one of the best raw possession driving D during the time that he has played.

Klefbom-Larsson will be a pairing that shuts **** down. If only the Oilers had a goalie good enough to make use of that.
Overall its looking like Klefbom might become one of those D with amazing analytics, but overall concensus is "good but amazing". Similar to Muzzin, Tanev

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03-20-2017, 06:14 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
You and several others overstate this IMO.

This is hardly a consistent shift-by-shift problem for him, and while the consistency isn't quite there yet, he was just as much of an analytical darling with such prolific defenseman as Justin Schultz as he is with Adam Larsson.
Im not talking shift by shift, im talking every game.

Larsson is generally the player to break up plays in the dzone, not Klefbom. Players have a harder time entering the zone on Larsson's side then Kelfboms.



Watch tonight.

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03-20-2017, 06:17 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by nightfighter View Post
That TSN graphic is interesting mostly in the names that it omits. No Burns, Doughty, PK, Weber or any of the other usual suspects. I'm guessing this is because of the relative depth and strength in the blue line on those players' teams?
The chart below has all the names. TSN got their listing from the chart. As far as the chart goes, alot of the D are pretty close together. Only really the top 3 have clear seperation

Burns has largest offensive impact by alot but defensively is the smallest. So he gets hurt there. (20th on the chart)

Weber has higher offensive impact, average defensive and bigg PP impact. Negative for penalties drawn (14th)

Doughty is 18th. Pretty low offensive impact, which is justified seeing as his ES points are pretty low (Larsson has as many IIRC). Solid defensive impact.

Defensively ranked its looks to be as such: Vlasic, Hjmarlsson, Klefbom, Ekholm, Muzzin, Manson, Campbell, OEL, Stalman/Hedman

Offensively: Burns, Karlsson, Barrie, Jones, Trouba, Hedman, Krug, Parayko, Weber

Just eye balling it tho

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03-20-2017, 06:19 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Im not talking shift by shift, im talking every game.

Larsson is generally the player to break up plays in the dzone, not Klefbom. Players have a harder time entering the zone on Larsson's side then Kelfboms.



Watch tonight.
Klefbom supringly has better zone entry numbers (ie limiting forwards to dump ins versus controlled entries) and is the best on the Oilers D core. Or was last time this was tracked. Larsson actually got targeted significantly more than Klefbom for zone entries



here is the first 37 games this year. Klefbom targeted 299 times, Larsson 426. Klefbom denied a zone entry 14% of the time, highest on Oilers. He also allows a controlled entry on only 40.5% of entries, 2nd best on the D core.


Last edited by Aceboogie: 03-20-2017 at 06:26 PM.
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03-20-2017, 06:28 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
Klefbom supringly has better zone entry numbers (ie limiting forwards to dump ins versus controlled entries) and is the best on the Oilers D core. Or was last time this was tracked. Larsson actually got targeted significantly more than Klefbom for zone entries
Ok Klefbom is a more defensive player then Larsson.

If thats what you believe because of some stats, I kinda feel bad for you.

I was pointing out, Klefbom has a higher defensive chart in the WAR then any other player then Vlasic, which is thanks to Larsson. I firmly believe that. You wont change my mind. Just watch the games.

Analytic darlings were the reason Eakins and MacT got fired.

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03-20-2017, 06:35 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by nightfighter View Post
That TSN graphic is interesting mostly in the names that it omits. No Burns, Doughty, PK, Weber or any of the other usual suspects. I'm guessing this is because of the relative depth and strength in the blue line on those players' teams?
No Doughty just means that this chart is flawed beyond talking about really.

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03-20-2017, 06:37 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Ok Klefbom is a more defensive player then Larsson.

If thats what you believe because of some stats, I kinda feel bad for you.

I was pointing out, Klefbom has a higher defensive chart in the WAR then any other player then Vlasic, which is thanks to Larsson. I firmly believe that. You wont change my mind. Just watch the games.

Analytic darlings were the reason Eakins and MacT got fired.
I dont think he is the more defensive player than Larsson. I just dont believe Larsson is the main reason Klefbom is doing so well, and doing so well in a thing like wins above replacement. Klefbom was great in this area last year as a near rookie with Justin Schultz as his partner. So it came off as if you were trying to say "Klefbomis poor defensively, the only reason hes good is because of Larsson." Which is untrue. Klefbom is good defensively, Larsson just makes him great (according to WAR model)

I dont need to convince you to support or even understand analytics. I think the hockey world has pretty much moved from that and either you subscribe to it or you dont. If you dont its all good. But just be aware of your bias's, because even know you made an assertion that Larsson was better at preventing entries and it can clearly be shown to be false. That are manually tracked stats from hours of watching and rewatching games and breaking down a pretty detailed incident

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03-20-2017, 06:37 PM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
Klefbom supringly has better zone entry numbers (ie limiting forwards to dump ins versus controlled entries) and is the best on the Oilers D core. Or was last time this was tracked. Larsson actually got targeted significantly more than Klefbom for zone entries



here is the first 37 games this year. Klefbom targeted 299 times, Larsson 426. Klefbom denied a zone entry 14% of the time, highest on Oilers. He also allows a controlled entry on only 40.5% of entries, 2nd best on the D core.
This proves nothing. Actually all analytics prove nothing in small sample sizes.

Next.

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03-20-2017, 06:38 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Ok Klefbom is a more defensive player then Larsson.
Clearly not.

Offense and defense are not separate things. Klefbom can both be the more efficient statistical defenseman and have visible warts in his game. It's what Jeff Petry was, too - only Petry wasn't as good.

Quote:
I was pointing out, Klefbom has a higher defensive chart in the WAR then any other player then Vlasic, which is thanks to Larsson. I firmly believe that. You wont change my mind. Just watch the games.
Nobody is saying that this method is a 100% indicator of defensive prowess, only that in a handful of categories, should you favor them, he is among the leagues best.

He can both be have tremendous strengths and some glaring weaknesses. Few are perfect, and neither is Adam Larsson.

As for your idea that Larsson is carrying Klefbom, the only real category Klefbom is better this year is goals. The reason why has little to do with Larsson - he's shooting a ton of pucks.

Quote:
Analytic darlings were the reason Eakins and MacT got fired.
Well... no.

Nikitin and Ference were not great analytical buys. Pouliot was, and until this year was a pretty worthwhile signing. Even now we may be seeing Pouliot return to what
he had been in the past three or four seasons with the Oilers, Rangers and Bruins.

Eakins loved Corsi but didn't understand it. Beyond that, I'm not sure analytics had more to do with the Oilers in that era than they do now.

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03-20-2017, 06:39 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
I dont think he is the more defensive player than Larsson. I just dont believe Larsson is the main reason Klefbom is doing so well, and doing so well in a thing like wins above replacement. Klefbom was great in this area last year as a near rookie with Justin Schultz as his partner. So it came off as if you were trying to say "Klefbomis poor defensively, the only reason hes good is because of Larsson." Which is untrue. Klefbom is good defensively, Larsson just makes him great (according to WAR model)

I dont need to convince you to support or even understand analytics. I think the hockey world has pretty much moved from that and either you subscribe to it or you dont. If you dont its all good. But just be aware of your bias's, because even know you made an assertion that Larsson was better at preventing entries and it can clearly be shown to be false. That are manually tracked stats from hours of watching and rewatching games and breaking down a pretty detailed incident
The problem with analytics is they get skewed for a person's agenda, usually small sample sizes, which you chose to give me for preventing entries. 37 games? what about the rest?

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03-20-2017, 06:41 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
The problem with analytics is they get skewed for a person's agenda, usually small sample sizes, which you chose to give me for preventing entries. 37 games? what about the rest?
As opposed to your eye test, which is completely reliable and without risk of innate biases?

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03-20-2017, 06:41 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
No Doughty just means that this chart is flawed beyond talking about really.
Doughty is there. Hes just not in top 5 because he doesnt produce enough offensively. Doughty has 17 ES points this year, which ranks him 47th league wide for D. Even worse considering he plays massive minutes, 3rd most in the NHL for D. He ranks 99th for pts/60 for regular D. For comparison, Adam Larsson has 2 less ES points in 200 less minutes

Its not flawed because a player you like isnt in the top 5. Hes not in the top 5 for a reason

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03-20-2017, 06:42 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Im not talking shift by shift, im talking every game.

Larsson is generally the player to break up plays in the dzone, not Klefbom. Players have a harder time entering the zone on Larsson's side then Kelfboms.



Watch tonight.
Why watch when u can just look up these weird stats..

Lol @ suggestions that Klefbom is better than Larsson defensively.

Without Larsson Klefbom is a unreliable 2nd pairing Dman with a good shot.

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03-20-2017, 06:43 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
The problem with analytics is they get skewed for a person's agenda, usually small sample sizes, which you chose to give me for preventing entries. 37 games? what about the rest?
These games are manually tracked by a human being. Which takes time, effort and is done for no compensation. This person took time out of there day to manually track 37 games and is currently tracking the remaining games but yet to have time

Dont even try and call out the sample size. It was 37 games out of a possible 37 games. Didnt just stop tracking because he found a result he liked

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03-20-2017, 06:43 PM
  #171
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Why watch when u can just look up these weird stats..

Lol @ suggestions that Klefbom is better than Larsson defensively.

Without Larsson Klefbom is a unreliable 2nd pairing Dman with a good shot.
*sigh*

Why are the reading comprehension skills of this board so painfully low?

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03-20-2017, 06:45 PM
  #172
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Klefbom makes too many glaring errors that end up in the back of the net. Until he cleans that up I have difficulty considering him a legitimate top pair guy.

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03-20-2017, 06:47 PM
  #173
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Originally Posted by Draiskull View Post
Why watch when u can just look up these weird stats..

Lol @ suggestions that Klefbom is better than Larsson defensively.

Without Larsson Klefbom is a unreliable 2nd pairing Dman with a good shot.
Dont you think its weird that even though you watch every game and claim to have an in depth knowledge of a player, objective stats can completely prove you wrong.

I mean if you are wrong about your assertion Larsson is a better zone entry D who gets targetted way less, what else could you be wrong about

Stats are a pretty good way of keeping people in check. And I would call zone entry data a weird stat. Its as simple as this *watch the game, see a forward try and gain the zone, see what side they are going on and which D is there, check off if he gets in, dumps it in, or is stopped from getting in"

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03-20-2017, 06:47 PM
  #174
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As opposed to your eye test, which is completely reliable and without risk of innate biases?
Eye test showed me that Klefbom struggling to contain Dmen in front of the net directly caused multiple goals agaisnt.
I trust +/- more than these fancy stats and even that isnt a reliable way of judging players. Until they start counting unforced errors or brain farts we wont be able to judge reliability of Dmen.

We shall enjoy these fancy stats and klefBombs and hope he gains valuable experience these playoffs

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03-20-2017, 06:48 PM
  #175
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*sigh*

Why are the reading comprehension skills of this board so painfully low?
I read only what i want to read...

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