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Just How Good Is Ryan Ellis?

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04-07-2017, 01:58 PM
  #1
frogman210
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Just How Good Is Ryan Ellis?

Hey, Preds fans out there!

So I do not watch too many Predators games as it is not my favorite team. I do appreciate and like a lot of what they are doing though. I also love players like Forsberg and some others. They are really a fun team to watch the last couple of years as they have developed and made a few big trades to really put themselves in contention.

One of our writers at Puck Planet wrote an article today that I personally found very interesting. It's taking a more in-depth look at Ryan Ellis. After seeing some of his numbers and what has been going on I did a bit more looking into him and I have been very impressed.

Do you think that he truly has ascended to a top pairing D man in the NHL? Do you think that he is not that good? I would love to hear some more thoughts on him from people who watch him game in and game out.

He really has come a long way from when he was drafted and came into the league from what I can see.

Here is a link to the article that our Predators writer posted today.

http://puckplanet.com/2017/04/07/the...tten-predator/

It has some great video clips and stats on him. I have not looked this part up yet, but does anyone know off the top of their head how he is as far as his Corsi stats go?

I think it's pretty awesome that you guys have him locked up for 2 more years, but when he gets to that point if he keeps up the improvement and numbers he's been putting up it sounds like he's going to be in line for a MASSIVE payday.

Anyways, I am excited to hear what the Preds fans out there think about this guy and how much more room there is for him to improve/decline. Thanks for taking the time read my question here and respond.

Hope you are all having a great day, and good luck to you guys as the playoffs are about here!

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04-07-2017, 04:01 PM
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triggrman
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The article is spot on. He might have the highest IQ of any of our top pairing defenders.

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04-07-2017, 04:17 PM
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frogman210
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
The article is spot on. He might have the highest IQ of any of our top pairing defenders.
Thats awesome. Its quiet impressive too with guys like Josi and Pk on the team too. Do you think that he could ever get into the norris consideration in the future or do you think with Pk and Josi on the team he will be kind of overshadowed by the media and stuff a bit?

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04-07-2017, 04:18 PM
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Drake744
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Originally Posted by frogman210 View Post
Thats awesome. Its quiet impressive too with guys like Josi and Pk on the team too. Do you think that he could ever get into the norris consideration in the future or do you think with Pk and Josi on the team he will be kind of overshadowed by the media and stuff a bit?
If Weber never won a Norris while in his prime here then Ellis won't either.

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04-07-2017, 05:19 PM
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frogman210
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Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
If Weber never won a Norris while in his prime here then Ellis won't either.
that is a really good point, was webber ever nominated at all or was he never really in the running?

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04-07-2017, 06:59 PM
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Originally Posted by frogman210 View Post
that is a really good point, was webber ever nominated at all or was he never really in the running?
Three times actually. He finished 2nd in the voting in 2010-2011 when Lidstrom won, top three in 2011-12 when Karlsson won his first one and top three in 2013-14 when Keith won.

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04-07-2017, 09:45 PM
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LeafingTheWay
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frogman210 View Post
Do you think that he truly has ascended to a top pairing D man in the NHL? Do you think that he is not that good? I would love to hear some more thoughts on him from people who watch him game in and game out.

It has some great video clips and stats on him. I have not looked this part up yet, but does anyone know off the top of their head how he is as far as his Corsi stats go?
He and Ekholm formed the greatest 2nd pairing duo I've seen in a long-time last year. In my books, Ekholm and Ellis are both solid #2D. This year he has stepped up, but he's become overrated to be very honest (not to offend anyone).

He's being used way too much. As far as his corsi stats go, his corsi stats against have gotten significantly worse. He has the team-worst CA60/xGA60 and CF%/xGF% in general. He's been a goals machine, but that's also not sustainable at all. He has the league-leading sh% of 12% which is ridiculously high.

I'm loving that Ellis is not underrated anymore but I've been totally against Josi-Ellis being together. Ekholm made up for Ellis's faults and vice-versa much better.

Josi - Subban
Ekholm - Ellis pleaseeee

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04-08-2017, 01:15 AM
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Originally Posted by King Weber View Post
Three times actually. He finished 2nd in the voting in 2010-2011 when Lidstrom won, top three in 2011-12 when Karlsson won his first one and top three in 2013-14 when Keith won.
oh ok cool thanks, i wasn't sure if he was just getting completely overlooked or if he was in the running but not quiet winning it. Thanks!

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04-08-2017, 02:20 AM
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Originally Posted by LeafingTheWay View Post
He and Ekholm formed the greatest 2nd pairing duo I've seen in a long-time last year. In my books, Ekholm and Ellis are both solid #2D. This year he has stepped up, but he's become overrated to be very honest (not to offend anyone).

He's being used way too much. As far as his corsi stats go, his corsi stats against have gotten significantly worse. He has the team-worst CA60/xGA60 and CF%/xGF% in general. He's been a goals machine, but that's also not sustainable at all. He has the league-leading sh% of 12% which is ridiculously high.

I'm loving that Ellis is not underrated anymore but I've been totally against Josi-Ellis being together. Ekholm made up for Ellis's faults and vice-versa much better.

Josi - Subban
Ekholm - Ellis pleaseeee
His xGF% is still above 50, corsi numbers are right around 50 also. Given his highly increased minutes and tougher competition, that's not too bad at all. He isn't team worst in anything either, he's the lowest of the top 4 sure, but not team worst. He's also shooting 10.9%, not 12%, which doesn't lead the league. I think you can expect to see him have more shots next year and a shooting % a bit lower. So, basically everything you said is at least slightly off.

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04-08-2017, 03:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
His xGF% is still above 50, corsi numbers are right around 50 also. Given his highly increased minutes and tougher competition, that's not too bad at all. He isn't team worst in anything either, he's the lowest of the top 4 sure, but not team worst. He's also shooting 10.9%, not 12%, which doesn't lead the league. I think you can expect to see him have more shots next year and a shooting % a bit lower. So, basically everything you said is at least slightly off.
Note: I'm not bashing Ellis just in case someone thinks that, just pointing out the underlying numbers. I was one last year who said Ekholm-Ellis can take a lot harder usage than they were getting because their underlying numbers were fantastic.

Nope everything is spot on, but I should've mentioned these are 5v5 stats with D above 1000 mins who are Irwin/Ekholm/Josi/Subban/Ellis (don't want the sample size to be off with players who are in and out of the lineup).

5v5 stats:
His possession numbers as originally asked for:
49.22 CF%
50.58 xGF%
His sh%: 12.05 sh%

It's a common misconception that it's okay to have less than team-average underlying numbers if you have a 'harder' usage. Underlying numbers are to be used to judge if a player can handle their usage or not, not to judge if a player is good or bad (as people commonly mistake it for). That's why I'm huge on coaches using them to judge how one is doing under the usage they assign. If the underlying numbers are uneven on the team, that means the usage needs to be adjusted. The stats right now indicate that Ekholm-Subban pair can handle harder usage while Josi-Ellis needs to be taken down a notch. Josi-Ellis is amazing offensively though.

I wish Lavy would use our top-4 like SJ's usage. Vlasic-Braun (Ekholm-Subban) take the heavy usage while Burns-Martin(Josi-Ellis) get to use their offensive weapons.

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04-08-2017, 05:47 AM
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if 'advanced stats' tell you that ekholm-subban should be playing more at the expense of minutes for josi-ellis, well it shows your advanced stats aren't telling the correct story. wait, is this the same corsi that says the LAK are the best team in the league?

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04-08-2017, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Pred303 View Post
if 'advanced stats' tell you that ekholm-subban should be playing more at the expense of minutes for josi-ellis, well it shows your advanced stats aren't telling the correct story. wait, is this the same corsi that says the LAK are the best team in the league?
Yeah I agree. Subban and Ekholm look to be much more likely to end up trapped in the defensive zone than Josi and Ellis. They should be playing close to equal numbers, but if one pairing is going to be on the ice more than another it should be Josi and Ellis.

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04-08-2017, 05:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Weber View Post
Three times actually. He finished 2nd in the voting in 2010-2011 when Lidstrom won, top three in 2011-12 when Karlsson won his first one and top three in 2013-14 when Keith won.
Weber deserved it in 2013-2014 especially since Weber took harder competition had a career high in goals, had no competent players offensively or defensively (What in the world was our forward depth that year? Josi was poor defensively, Jones was a rookie, Ellis was mep, Klein and MDZ were both dreadful, and Ekholm was mostly irrelevant). Oh not to mention Hutton and Mazenec were a poor tandem, and Rinne was injured most of the year and when he was back, he played bad. Whereas Keith had Leddy, Hjalmarsson, Oduya, and Seabrook lol.

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04-08-2017, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by RainierBeat View Post
Weber deserved it in 2013-2014 especially since Weber took harder competition had a career high in goals, had no competent players offensively or defensively (What in the world was our forward depth that year? Josi was poor defensively, Jones was a rookie, Ellis was mep, Klein and MDZ were both dreadful, and Ekholm was mostly irrelevant). Oh not to mention Hutton and Mazenec were a poor tandem, and Rinne was injured most of the year and when he was back, he played bad. Whereas Keith had Leddy, Hjalmarsson, Oduya, and Seabrook lol.
Keith had a ton of PP and secondary assists that year and the Blackhawks had 7 or 8 scorers with more goals than the Predators which was Weber.

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04-09-2017, 12:19 PM
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Using corsi to rate defensemen is again beyond stupid.

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04-09-2017, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by frogman210 View Post
that is a really good point, was webber ever nominated at all or was he never really in the running?
Just a little pet peeve of mine, but all defensemen who played in the NHL are technically nominated for the Norris as any of them could potentially receive votes. The three who receive the most points from votes are the finalists.

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04-09-2017, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
The article is spot on. He might have the highest IQ of any of our top pairing defenders.
Agreed on the IQ, good article.

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04-10-2017, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by LeafingTheWay View Post
He and Ekholm formed the greatest 2nd pairing duo I've seen in a long-time last year. In my books, Ekholm and Ellis are both solid #2D. This year he has stepped up, but he's become overrated to be very honest (not to offend anyone).

Josi - Subban
Ekholm - Ellis pleaseeee
I have been pleasantly surprised this year. I agree, a great 2nd line pairing.

As good as he and Arvy have been, and I love these 2, I want to see it in the playoffs. I know we as Preds fans love them and their story, but as just a fan, I want to see them do it when it really, truly matters before we crown them.

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04-11-2017, 10:24 AM
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couple of Ellis advanced stat's this year i found interesting;

...among all defensemen, ellis had the 4th most even strength goals, 10. trailing only Faulk (11), karlsson (11), burns (19). who all three played significantly more even strength minutes than him. Karlsson played 200 more es minutes, faulke 100 and burns 250.

..among all defensemen, ellis was far and away the league leader in shooting percentage even strength at an amazing 12.05%. only one other, was even above 10% (Mike Green at 10.11%). considering the league average for d-men es is below 4% it just shows how well ellis has shot the puck. (josi at 3.25% as an example)

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04-29-2017, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
If Weber never won a Norris while in his prime here then Ellis won't either.
Honestly people thinking players playing in big markets have better chances to win the norris is a misconception. People said the same about weber ''he'll probly win the norris now that hes in mtl'' and after the great season start he was ahead but then? And i can bet a few dollars he will never win one either now that ive seen him play a full season.

Big markets are tough. A players game is under the microscope. I dont see any reason for it to be an advantage quite the opposite.

For exemple kessel in toronto really went through hard times. Probly can name many exemples. Only time a player is underated is when his game is effective but not quite spectacular and doesnt make highlights often or ur points results isnt hight because ur responsible defencively

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05-01-2017, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Tempfan99 View Post
Honestly people thinking players playing in big markets have better chances to win the norris is a misconception. People said the same about weber ''he'll probly win the norris now that hes in mtl'' and after the great season start he was ahead but then? And i can bet a few dollars he will never win one either now that ive seen him play a full season.

Big markets are tough. A players game is under the microscope. I dont see any reason for it to be an advantage quite the opposite.

For exemple kessel in toronto really went through hard times. Probly can name many exemples. Only time a player is underated is when his game is effective but not quite spectacular and doesnt make highlights often or ur points results isnt hight because ur responsible defencively
In all reality, the one season where Weber truly deserved it was 2011-12 and Kids from won it as basically a career achievement award
This is what happens when you post from your new phone and it decides that Lidstrom should be spelled this way


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05-01-2017, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Tempfan99 View Post
Honestly people thinking players playing in big markets have better chances to win the norris is a misconception. People said the same about weber ''he'll probly win the norris now that hes in mtl'' and after the great season start he was ahead but then? And i can bet a few dollars he will never win one either now that ive seen him play a full season.

Big markets are tough. A players game is under the microscope. I dont see any reason for it to be an advantage quite the opposite.

For exemple kessel in toronto really went through hard times. Probly can name many exemples. Only time a player is underated is when his game is effective but not quite spectacular and doesnt make highlights often or ur points results isnt hight because ur responsible defencively
The fact of that matter is that if you get on a roll and have a great season in a big market, you're likely going to win a Norris.

In a small market, unless you're heads and shoulders above the big market candidates, probably not.

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05-01-2017, 03:27 PM
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Drake744
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In all reality, the one season where Weber truly deserved it was 2011-12 and Kids from won it as basically a career achievement award
This is what happens when you post from your new phone and it decides that Lidstrom should be spelled this way

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05-01-2017, 04:00 PM
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He was smarter than everyone on the ice in Windsor as well.

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05-01-2017, 05:55 PM
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I think a lot of people knew he had elite IQ but were just scared off by his size, it took him a few years to get his feet wet and adjusted to the NHL game, but I feel like he's definitely showing the potential he had all along.

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