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2017 Playoffs Thread

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Old
04-10-2017, 09:26 PM
  #1
Doctor No
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2017 Playoffs Thread

Here are the starting playoff probabilities for each series, using a straight SRS algorithm with no adjustments.

Others are welcome to post their own algorithm-based forecasts.

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04-10-2017, 09:26 PM
  #2
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OutcomeProb
MTL in 4 games4.8%
MTL in 5 games11.6%
MTL in 6 games12.3%
MTL in 7 games16.5%
NYR in 7 games14.8%
NYR in 6 games18.9%
NYR in 5 games13.5%
NYR in 4 games7.7%
MTL wins45.1%
NYR wins54.9%

OutcomeProb
OTT in 4 games3.8%
OTT in 5 games9.9%
OTT in 6 games11.0%
OTT in 7 games15.6%
BOS in 7 games15.2%
BOS in 6 games20.4%
BOS in 5 games14.8%
BOS in 4 games9.1%
OTT wins40.4%
BOS wins59.6%

OutcomeProb
WAS in 4 games18.4%
WAS in 5 games27.7%
WAS in 6 games19.9%
WAS in 7 games16.4%
TOR in 7 games6.7%
TOR in 6 games6.7%
TOR in 5 games3.0%
TOR in 4 games1.3%
WAS wins82.3%
TOR wins17.7%

OutcomeProb
PIT in 4 games5.2%
PIT in 5 games12.6%
PIT in 6 games13.7%
PIT in 7 games16.9%
CBS in 7 games14.4%
CBS in 6 games18.0%
CBS in 5 games12.3%
CBS in 4 games6.8%
PIT wins48.4%
CBS wins51.6%


Last edited by Doctor No: 04-10-2017 at 09:32 PM.
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04-10-2017, 09:27 PM
  #3
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OutcomeProb
CHI in 4 games7.7%
CHI in 5 games16.4%
CHI in 6 games16.0%
CHI in 7 games18.6%
NAS in 7 games12.8%
NAS in 6 games14.9%
NAS in 5 games9.0%
NAS in 4 games4.6%
CHI wins58.7%
NAS wins41.3%

OutcomeProb
MIN in 4 games11.5%
MIN in 5 games21.9%
MIN in 6 games18.6%
MIN in 7 games18.6%
STL in 7 games10.2%
STL in 6 games10.6%
STL in 5 games5.9%
STL in 4 games2.8%
MIN wins70.5%
STL wins29.5%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 4 games8.3%
ANA in 5 games17.6%
ANA in 6 games16.4%
ANA in 7 games18.7%
CAL in 7 games12.3%
CAL in 6 games14.2%
CAL in 5 games8.3%
CAL in 4 games4.2%
ANA wins61.0%
CAL wins39.0%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 4 games7.6%
EDM in 5 games16.4%
EDM in 6 games15.9%
EDM in 7 games18.8%
SJS in 7 games12.7%
SJS in 6 games15.0%
SJS in 5 games9.0%
SJS in 4 games4.5%
EDM wins58.8%
SJS wins41.2%


Last edited by Doctor No: 04-10-2017 at 09:35 PM.
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04-10-2017, 10:08 PM
  #4
morehockeystats
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Are these predictions roster-aware? E.g. whether they care about Couture and Thornton playing for the Sharks?

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04-11-2017, 08:56 AM
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Not roster aware, and memory-less in general (typical with an SRS algorithm)

I have some agent-based model predictive algorithms that take into account individual players, but I publish the SRS algorithm as more of an educational exercise (for people interested in exploring, but don't have an ideal place to start).

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04-11-2017, 09:23 AM
  #6
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Can you run this model against the past 2-3 playoffs and post the results so we can see how predictive it actually was?

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04-11-2017, 09:19 PM
  #7
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OTT-BOS


WSH-TOR


MIN-STL


EDM-SJS


ANA-CGY


PIT-CBJ


CHI-NSH


MTL-NYR

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04-13-2017, 08:28 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by an Girar i View Post
Can you run this model against the past 2-3 playoffs and post the results so we can see how predictive it actually was?
I'll find the thread, but I was posting these "live" over the past few years, so it's already out there.

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04-13-2017, 08:35 AM
  #9
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Series updates after games of April 12:

OutcomeProb
MTL in 5 games4.5%
MTL in 6 games8.6%
MTL in 7 games14.6%
NYR in 7 games13.4%
NYR in 6 games21.9%
NYR in 5 games19.8%
NYR in 4 games17.2%
MTL wins27.7%
NYR wins72.3%

OutcomeProb
OTT in 5 games3.7%
OTT in 6 games7.5%
OTT in 7 games13.2%
BOS in 7 games13.0%
BOS in 6 games22.8%
BOS in 5 games21.2%
BOS in 4 games18.7%
OTT wins24.4%
BOS wins75.6%

OutcomeProb
PIT in 4 games10.3%
PIT in 5 games19.4%
PIT in 6 games16.5%
PIT in 7 games17.9%
CBS in 7 games14.9%
CBS in 6 games14.5%
CBS in 5 games6.4%
PIT wins64.2%
CBS wins35.8%

OutcomeProb
MIN in 5 games11.1%
MIN in 6 games17.2%
MIN in 7 games22.2%
STL in 7 games12.3%
STL in 6 games17.2%
STL in 5 games11.7%
STL in 4 games8.3%
MIN wins50.4%
STL wins49.6%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 5 games7.3%
EDM in 6 games12.8%
EDM in 7 games18.9%
SJS in 7 games13.4%
SJS in 6 games20.3%
SJS in 5 games15.5%
SJS in 4 games11.9%
EDM wins38.9%
SJS wins61.1%

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04-14-2017, 08:42 AM
  #10
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Updates after games of April 13:

OutcomeProb
WAS in 4 games25.9%
WAS in 5 games31.7%
WAS in 6 games18.6%
WAS in 7 games13.1%
TOR in 7 games5.4%
TOR in 6 games4.1%
TOR in 5 games1.3%
WAS wins89.2%
TOR wins10.8%

OutcomeProb
CHI in 5 games7.4%
CHI in 6 games12.6%
CHI in 7 games18.7%
NAS in 7 games13.2%
NAS in 6 games20.2%
NAS in 5 games15.9%
NAS in 4 games11.9%
CHI wins38.8%
NAS wins61.2%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 4 games14.2%
ANA in 5 games23.7%
ANA in 6 games18.3%
ANA in 7 games17.6%
CAL in 7 games11.6%
CAL in 6 games10.5%
CAL in 5 games4.2%
ANA wins73.7%
CAL wins26.3%

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04-14-2017, 01:35 PM
  #11
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BTW, here is my belated repost of the pure team-Elo based prediction. These aren't very reliable, but still fun:

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04-15-2017, 01:13 PM
  #12
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Updates after games of April 14:

OutcomeProb
MTL in 5 games8.8%
MTL in 6 games13.5%
MTL in 7 games19.4%
NYR in 7 games17.4%
NYR in 6 games24.3%
NYR in 5 games16.6%
MTL wins41.7%
NYR wins58.3%

OutcomeProb
PIT in 4 games19.9%
PIT in 5 games27.6%
PIT in 6 games17.2%
PIT in 7 games15.5%
CBS in 7 games12.2%
CBS in 6 games7.5%
PIT wins80.3%
CBS wins19.7%

OutcomeProb
MIN in 6 games8.6%
MIN in 7 games18.6%
STL in 7 games10.8%
STL in 6 games20.0%
STL in 5 games18.3%
STL in 4 games23.6%
MIN wins27.2%
STL wins72.8%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 5 games13.0%
EDM in 6 games18.2%
EDM in 7 games22.3%
SJS in 7 games15.3%
SJS in 6 games19.7%
SJS in 5 games11.5%
EDM wins53.5%
SJS wins46.6%

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04-16-2017, 10:28 AM
  #13
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Updates after games of April 15 - not that you need anything in this subforum to know that the Blackhawks are in trouble:

OutcomeProb
OTT in 5 games7.7%
OTT in 6 games12.3%
OTT in 7 games18.0%
BOS in 7 games17.7%
BOS in 6 games25.9%
BOS in 5 games18.4%
OTT wins38.0%
BOS wins62.0%

OutcomeProb
WAS in 5 games24.8%
WAS in 6 games26.5%
WAS in 7 games23.6%
TOR in 7 games9.9%
TOR in 6 games10.4%
TOR in 5 games4.9%
WAS wins74.9%
TOR wins25.1%

OutcomeProb
CHI in 6 games4.9%
CHI in 7 games12.6%
NAS in 7 games10.0%
NAS in 6 games20.3%
NAS in 5 games21.7%
NAS in 4 games30.5%
CHI wins17.5%
NAS wins82.5%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 4 games23.9%
ANA in 5 games30.0%
ANA in 6 games17.4%
ANA in 7 games14.0%
CAL in 7 games9.3%
CAL in 6 games5.4%
ANA wins85.3%
CAL wins14.7%

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04-17-2017, 08:48 AM
  #14
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Updates after games of April 16:

OutcomeProb
MTL in 5 games22.3%
MTL in 6 games21.4%
MTL in 7 games21.8%
NYR in 7 games19.1%
NYR in 6 games15.5%
MTL wins65.4%
NYR wins34.6%

OutcomeProb
PIT in 4 games45.3%
PIT in 5 games30.7%
PIT in 6 games11.0%
PIT in 7 games7.3%
CBS in 7 games5.7%
PIT wins94.3%
CBS wins5.7%

OutcomeProb
MIN in 7 games10.1%
STL in 7 games6.0%
STL in 6 games15.5%
STL in 5 games18.8%
STL in 4 games49.6%
MIN wins10.1%
STL wins89.9%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 5 games28.3%
EDM in 6 games24.0%
EDM in 7 games21.8%
SJS in 7 games14.8%
SJS in 6 games11.1%
EDM wins74.1%
SJS wins25.9%

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04-18-2017, 08:40 AM
  #15
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Updates after games of April 17:

OutcomeProb
OTT in 5 games20.5%
OTT in 6 games19.6%
OTT in 7 games21.7%
BOS in 7 games20.4%
BOS in 6 games17.9%
OTT wins61.7%
BOS wins38.3%

OutcomeProb
WAS in 6 games24.1%
WAS in 7 games30.9%
TOR in 7 games13.5%
TOR in 6 games18.8%
TOR in 5 games12.7%
WAS wins55.0%
TOR wins45.0%

OutcomeProb
CHI in 7 games6.1%
NAS in 7 games4.8%
NAS in 6 games13.8%
NAS in 5 games19.6%
NAS in 4 games55.7%
CHI wins6.1%
NAS wins93.9%

OutcomeProb
ANA in 4 games49.3%
ANA in 5 games30.8%
ANA in 6 games9.8%
ANA in 7 games6.2%
CAL in 7 games4.0%
ANA wins96.0%
CAL wins4.0%

Interesting that the model likes Washington enough that it still favors the Capitals (slightly) here.

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04-19-2017, 05:17 PM
  #16
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Updates after games of April 18:

OutcomeProb
MTL in 6 games22.1%
MTL in 7 games27.0%
NYR in 7 games23.6%
NYR in 6 games27.3%
MTL wins49.1%
NYR wins50.9%

OutcomeProb
PIT in 5 games56.1%
PIT in 6 games19.8%
PIT in 7 games13.6%
CBS in 7 games10.5%
PIT wins89.5%
CBS wins10.5%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 6 games25.5%
EDM in 7 games28.5%
SJS in 7 games22.0%
SJS in 6 games24.0%
EDM wins54.0%
SJS wins46.0%

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04-20-2017, 08:58 AM
  #17
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Updates after games of April 19:

OutcomeProb
WAS in 6 games41.0%
WAS in 7 games32.2%
TOR in 7 games14.2%
TOR in 6 games12.6%
WAS wins73.3%
TOR wins26.7%

OutcomeProb
OTT in 5 games51.9%
OTT in 6 games19.3%
OTT in 7 games14.9%
BOS in 7 games13.9%
OTT wins86.1%
BOS wins13.9%

OutcomeProb
MIN in 7 games20.4%
STL in 7 games11.9%
STL in 6 games30.3%
STL in 5 games37.4%
MIN wins20.4%
STL wins79.6%

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04-21-2017, 09:57 AM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No View Post
OutcomeProb
OTT in 4 games3.8%
OTT in 5 games9.9%
OTT in 6 games11.0%
OTT in 7 games15.6%
BOS in 7 games15.2%
BOS in 6 games20.4%
BOS in 5 games14.8%
BOS in 4 games9.1%
OTT wins40.4%
BOS wins59.6%

OutcomeProb
WAS in 4 games18.4%
WAS in 5 games27.7%
WAS in 6 games19.9%
WAS in 7 games16.4%
TOR in 7 games6.7%
TOR in 6 games6.7%
TOR in 5 games3.0%
TOR in 4 games1.3%
WAS wins82.3%
TOR wins17.7%

OutcomeProb
PIT in 4 games5.2%
PIT in 5 games12.6%
PIT in 6 games13.7%
PIT in 7 games16.9%
CBS in 7 games14.4%
CBS in 6 games18.0%
CBS in 5 games12.3%
CBS in 4 games6.8%
PIT wins48.4%
CBS wins51.6%
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No View Post
OutcomeProb
CHI in 4 games7.7%
CHI in 5 games16.4%
CHI in 6 games16.0%
CHI in 7 games18.6%
NAS in 7 games12.8%
NAS in 6 games14.9%
NAS in 5 games9.0%
NAS in 4 games4.6%
CHI wins58.7%
NAS wins41.3%

OutcomeProb
MIN in 4 games11.5%
MIN in 5 games21.9%
MIN in 6 games18.6%
MIN in 7 games18.6%
STL in 7 games10.2%
STL in 6 games10.6%
STL in 5 games5.9%
STL in 4 games2.8%
MIN wins70.5%
STL wins29.5%
Looking at these like


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04-21-2017, 10:43 AM
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I don't think that you understand probabilities.

Thanks for chiming in, though.

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04-21-2017, 11:01 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No View Post
I don't think that you understand probabilities.

Are you actually being ironic here?

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04-21-2017, 11:20 AM
  #21
Doctor No
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrisinroch View Post
Are you actually being ironic here?
Nope. If a model gives a team a 60% chance to win, that's far from a guarantee.

In fact, if you're looking for guarantees, I'd recommend something other than hockey.


Last edited by Doctor No: 04-21-2017 at 11:26 AM.
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04-21-2017, 01:02 PM
  #22
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Updates after games of April 20:

OutcomeProb
MTL in 7 games21.8%
NYR in 7 games19.2%
NYR in 6 games59.0%
MTL wins21.8%
NYR wins78.2%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 6 games45.2%
EDM in 7 games31.2%
SJS in 7 games23.6%
EDM wins76.4%
SJS wins23.6%

To the above question, for the three series completed, the model is slightly above average (Pittsburgh at 48.4%, Nashville at 41.3%, and Anaheim at 61.0% composites to a 50.2% overall).

Ottawa/Boston and Minnesota/St. Louis don't look particularly good. I'd still like to know why the poster above quoted Washington/Toronto and implied that the model got it "way wrong".


Last edited by Doctor No: 04-21-2017 at 01:09 PM.
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04-21-2017, 03:57 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor No View Post
Updates after games of April 20:

OutcomeProb
MTL in 7 games21.8%
NYR in 7 games19.2%
NYR in 6 games59.0%
MTL wins21.8%
NYR wins78.2%

OutcomeProb
EDM in 6 games45.2%
EDM in 7 games31.2%
SJS in 7 games23.6%
EDM wins76.4%
SJS wins23.6%

To the above question, for the three series completed, the model is slightly above average (Pittsburgh at 48.4%, Nashville at 41.3%, and Anaheim at 61.0% composites to a 50.2% overall).

Ottawa/Boston and Minnesota/St. Louis don't look particularly good. I'd still like to know why the poster above quoted Washington/Toronto and implied that the model got it "way wrong".
I was joking. Washington and Toronto has not gone the way most models or people predicted. Also, there's a massive difference in the probabilities before the series, and after game 3.

And the Minnesota/St. Louis series looks bad only because it's 3-1 right now. Minnesota has pretty much dominated play, and has really only run into a hot goalie.

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04-21-2017, 05:04 PM
  #24
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Ah, got it - thanks! Glad you clarified (I often - and recently - have conversations here where people aren't joking).

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04-22-2017, 10:35 AM
  #25
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Updates after games of April 21:

OutcomeProb
WAS in 6 games58.9%
WAS in 7 games28.7%
TOR in 7 games12.5%
WAS wins87.5%
TOR wins12.5%

OutcomeProb
OTT in 6 games39.5%
OTT in 7 games31.4%
BOS in 7 games29.1%
OTT wins70.9%
BOS wins29.1%

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