HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > National Hockey League Talk
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

National Hockey League Talk Discuss NHL players, teams, games, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

2-Man Advantage Sv. %?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-19-2017, 08:14 PM
  #1
BenG
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 91
vCash: 500
2-Man Advantage Sv. %?

Are there any stats that have "5-on-3" save percentage?

If not, what about "5-on-3" penalty kill?

BenG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-19-2017, 09:41 PM
  #2
93LEAFS
Registered User
 
93LEAFS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,315
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenG View Post
Are there any stats that have "5-on-3" save percentage?

If not, what about "5-on-3" penalty kill?
http://www.corsica.hockey/goalies/

Change state to 3-5 and put the minimum minutes down to 0, as not all goalies play 50 minutes of this in a season. I mean, no goalie faced over 13 minutes, so there really isn't much to draw from it.

93LEAFS is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-19-2017, 10:21 PM
  #3
BenG
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 91
vCash: 500
Thank you!

BenG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-19-2017, 10:23 PM
  #4
JaegerDice
Q Gonna Q
 
JaegerDice's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 14,659
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenG View Post
Are there any stats that have "5-on-3" save percentage?

If not, what about "5-on-3" penalty kill?
Yeah, corsica.hockey will help you out.

Long and short of it is that it's not consistent or sustainable. Part of that is the low TOI per season or career that any goalie plays 3v5, and part of it is just the nature of play that happens on 3v5.

Same reason there's a ton more variance per season in goalie 4v5 SV% than their is 5v5 SV%.


The 'your goalie has to be your best penalty killer' is a Don Cherry quality myth. You want a sustainably good PK, you need a system that suppresses unblocked shots and scoring chances against. Because your goalies SV% at any short-handed situation will ebb and flow pretty significantly.

JaegerDice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-19-2017, 10:56 PM
  #5
BenG
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 91
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
Yeah, corsica.hockey will help you out.

Long and short of it is that it's not consistent or sustainable. Part of that is the low TOI per season or career that any goalie plays 3v5, and part of it is just the nature of play that happens on 3v5.

Same reason there's a ton more variance per season in goalie 4v5 SV% than their is 5v5 SV%.


The 'your goalie has to be your best penalty killer' is a Don Cherry quality myth. You want a sustainably good PK, you need a system that suppresses unblocked shots and scoring chances against. Because your goalies SV% at any short-handed situation will ebb and flow pretty significantly.
I would definitely agree, however I believe there is a signifigant difference in a team's defensive system between 5v4 and 5v3.

While 5v4 can be properly defended with a box structure, 5v3 breaks down much more quickly, ultimately putting more emphasis on goaltending. Moreover, each shot against is likely to be a true high-danger scoring chance.

5v3 requires goalies to excel in reading the play, lateral movement and quick reactions all at the same time.

BenG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 04:14 AM
  #6
swissexpert
Registered User
 
swissexpert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Country: Switzerland
Posts: 1,936
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 93LEAFS View Post
http://www.corsica.hockey/goalies/

Change state to 3-5 and put the minimum minutes down to 0, as not all goalies play 50 minutes of this in a season. I mean, no goalie faced over 13 minutes, so there really isn't much to draw from it.
Make it from '08 to '17 and it gets more interesting!

List with 50+ mins of 3vs5 (60 to 120 shots sgainst):

best:
Luongo .900
Vokoun .865
Thomas .859

worst:
Quick .693
Howard .714
Ellis .717

I know it says more about the PK than the goalies, but the difference is quite big, amazing that Luongo saves 90% of all shots faced during double PK!

swissexpert is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 12:08 PM
  #7
BenG
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 91
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by swissexpert View Post
Make it from '08 to '17 and it gets more interesting!

List with 50+ mins of 3vs5 (60 to 120 shots sgainst):

best:
Luongo .900
Vokoun .865
Thomas .859

worst:
Quick .693
Howard .714
Ellis .717

I know it says more about the PK than the goalies, but the difference is quite big, amazing that Luongo saves 90% of all shots faced during double PK!
Luongo fairs rather well over time. I believe he is first in sv% over the last three seasons as well.

BenG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 12:23 PM
  #8
OnlyRevolutions
Infinite Jest
 
OnlyRevolutions's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: New York
Country: United States
Posts: 2,377
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenG View Post
Luongo fairs rather well over time. I believe he is first in sv% over the last three seasons as well.
Do you mean at 3v5 or in all situations? If you look at everyone between 2014-2017, Luongo is about 19th, but you have a lot of guys who only played a couple minutes with 100 sv%.

For all situations (minimum around 25 games):

From 14-15 to 16-17 at 5v5, tops is Price (92.9% in 140 games. Not far behind is Murray (92.47 in 62 games), and, behind him, interestingly, is Raanta (92.42 in 69 games).

Holtby is 5th on that list. Luongo is 15th. Rask is 20th. Lundqvist is 24th (91.73%)

For 100 shots, you're talking about a 1 goal difference at 5v5 between 1st and 30th (Halak, 91.56%).

Make the minimum 100 games and Murray and Raanta get bumped out, but not much changes overall.

OnlyRevolutions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 12:39 PM
  #9
BenG
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 91
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnlyRevolutions View Post
Do you mean at 3v5 or in all situations? If you look at everyone between 2014-2017, Luongo is about 19th, but you have a lot of guys who only played a couple minutes with 100 sv%.

For all situations (minimum around 25 games):

From 14-15 to 16-17 at 5v5, tops is Price (92.9% in 140 games. Not far behind is Murray (92.47 in 62 games), and, behind him, interestingly, is Raanta (92.42 in 69 games).

Holtby is 5th on that list. Luongo is 15th. Rask is 20th. Lundqvist is 24th (91.73%)

For 100 shots, you're talking about a 1 goal difference at 5v5 between 1st and 30th (Halak, 91.56%).

Make the minimum 100 games and Murray and Raanta get bumped out, but not much changes overall.
Hmm, I must've made a slight error on Luongo but everything else you mentioned is on par with my findings.

As you mentioned, I omitted a bunch of goalies with only a few minutes/games played. Lots of interesting little facts in there!

BenG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 12:57 PM
  #10
hatterson
Global Moderator
 
hatterson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: North Tonawanda, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 17,862
vCash: 50
Send a message via Skype™ to hatterson
Quote:
Originally Posted by swissexpert View Post
Make it from '08 to '17 and it gets more interesting!

List with 50+ mins of 3vs5 (60 to 120 shots sgainst):

best:
Luongo .900
Vokoun .865
Thomas .859

worst:
Quick .693
Howard .714
Ellis .717

I know it says more about the PK than the goalies, but the difference is quite big, amazing that Luongo saves 90% of all shots faced during double PK!
The problem is the size of that slice is still incredibly small.

The most TOI since 07 at 3v5 is Price at 112 minutes, Lundqvist is 2nd at 103, Luongo 3rd at 96. That's not even two full games of ice time over the course of nearly a decade of hockey. Especially over such small datasets, other factors (score effects, shot counting issues, etc.) can sway the results massively.

__________________
Come join us on the By The Numbers forum. Take a look at our introduction post if you're new. If you have any questions, feel free to PM me.
hatterson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 05:39 PM
  #11
RainierBeat
Foster the People
 
RainierBeat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pingtung City
Country: Taiwan
Posts: 2,929
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
Yeah, corsica.hockey will help you out.

Long and short of it is that it's not consistent or sustainable. Part of that is the low TOI per season or career that any goalie plays 3v5, and part of it is just the nature of play that happens on 3v5.

Same reason there's a ton more variance per season in goalie 4v5 SV% than their is 5v5 SV%.


The 'your goalie has to be your best penalty killer' is a Don Cherry quality myth. You want a sustainably good PK, you need a system that suppresses unblocked shots and scoring chances against. Because your goalies SV% at any short-handed situation will ebb and flow pretty significantly.
At the same time some goalies naturally play far better on PK than others do. IN faact strange fact, in 2015-2016 Hutchinson of the Jets had a better PK save percentage than 5 on 5... It also really didn't have much to do with the Jets defense, as Pavelec and Hellebuyck had awful PK save percentages. It was just Hutchinson is that type of goalie that loves facing a lot of shots with more space in his own zone.

RainierBeat is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 05:55 PM
  #12
Sleepy
2014 Avenged
 
Sleepy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 3,201
vCash: 500
Good luck. I find sv% to be an inconsistent indicator of goalie success across different teams and against different systems, although it's a decent predictor of goalie success within a system (ie, comparing backups to starters).

Not that I have something better other than relying on goalie coaches and scouts expert opinions.

Sleepy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-20-2017, 08:26 PM
  #13
deckercky
Registered User
 
deckercky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 6,839
vCash: 1125
Quote:
Originally Posted by swissexpert View Post
Make it from '08 to '17 and it gets more interesting!

List with 50+ mins of 3vs5 (60 to 120 shots sgainst):

best:
Luongo .900
Vokoun .865
Thomas .859

worst:
Quick .693
Howard .714
Ellis .717

I know it says more about the PK than the goalies, but the difference is quite big, amazing that Luongo saves 90% of all shots faced during double PK!
That's actually better than Luongo's 4v5 save percentage over that period (still a very respectable .871).

deckercky is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:34 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2017 All Rights Reserved.