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Old
04-21-2017, 09:38 AM
  #176
loyaltotheend
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrindamoursNose View Post
Bro.

Just stop. It's embarrassing.
You're right. Sadly sometimes people can't help themselves. When they read Marner->Nylander is the same as Provy->McDonald it ends up in a racket.
I'm guilty myself, sometimes.

Bottom line is both teams have dynamite, cornerstone pieces they are loathe to part with

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Old
04-21-2017, 09:47 AM
  #177
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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
I think people get too hung up on "you have to build a team 'this way' to win the cup". Look at cup winners from the last 10 years. Some have been build using outstanding defense and role players on offense (the Ducks), some did it on outstanding offense and average at best defense (the Pens) while others have done it with good balance between the two (Hawks, Bruins and Kings). Other than having a goalie who has a fantastic playoff run, there is no "secret recipe" for building a cup winning team. There are a number of ways to achieve this.

Personally, I think that a more balanced team between offense and defense translates to better overall success but that's just my opinion (and there definitely IS evidence to the contrary). I think that if TO made this trade that they'd be a better team and have a better chance at making multiple legit cup runs. I think they'd have 2 of 3 elite pieces necessary to be dominant for a decade or more (just need that elite goalie). Yes, they wouldn't be as dominant on offense with losing Marner but adding Provo would be HUGE. If I'm the Leafs I'd be hesitant to trade Marner but Provo is EXACTLY the type of player that I'd look for if I did. Also, swapping out JVR for Simmonds, who does so much more than just put up points, makes it a no brainier.
There is certainly no set in stone this-way-or-nothing path to a cup. I just really like the ability we currently have to roll 3(4 since Boyle came along) lines that can contribute. I think it's a factor in why our all-rookie team is able to hang in there with Washington. Our defence hasn't been too bad, but I'll agree that's not a big sample size to hang my hat on.
I don't know about other Leaf fans, but I'm pretty interested to see how the lines shake out next year. There is a reasonable chance Nylander will be playing C, likely with speed demon Kapanen on one of his wings. If Kadri-Komarov are still the basis of our shutdown line, then quite possible Matthews and Marner play together. That's something I'd sure like to see.
No argument from this guy that Provorov would be a huge improvement on our blueline, or that Simmonds is an upgrade on JVR (though that is far less substantial than Provy).

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Old
04-21-2017, 09:49 AM
  #178
TheWolfOfBroadStreet
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Originally Posted by Randy Randerson View Post
Edit - this in the spirit of friendly conversation, tone isn't intended to be sh*tty

I'll read the articles, but 15 seconds is about what I would have expected the impact to be. In that period of time on a lost faceoff in the defensive zone I think you'd be looking at an average of at least 1 shot attempt against per lost defensive zone faceoff, and visa versa for won faceoffs in the offensive zone. 15 seconds is a pretty decent sustained offensive zone possession really

just looking at that 15 seconds, with some assumptions but I think they'll stand to reason - a guy that has light defensive zone usage playing Provorov's minutes gets about 22% DZ% and a guy that gets heavy d zone usage might be up to about 40%. Provorov saw an average of 15 faceoffs per night, so with light defensive zone usage would be 3.3 dzone faceoffs per night with lets say a 50% loss rate so if I'm right about the 1 shot attempt against in that 15 seconds that would be a CA/game of 1.65 and at 22 mins per night a CA/60 (for lost D zone faceoffs in isolation) of 4.5. For a guy with heavy D zone usage and Provorovs minutes/# faceoffs per night, he'd be getting 6 d zone faceoffs per night and assuming that same 50% loss ratio a CA/game of 3 and a CA/60 of 8.18 for dzone faceoffs in isolation

CA/60 ranges for dmen with over 1000 mins played this year were 46 to 65, and the difference between light and heavy usage with my assumption above is 8.18-4.5=3.68, so like an extra 5-8% of a player's CA/60 might come just from that 15 seconds after lost D zone faceoffs for getting heavy usage vs light usage in the defensive zone. There would also be a magnifying factor that the guys with light D zone usage are probably getting more O zone usage, so they would have a similar impact to their CF/60 as above on won offensive zone faceoffs.

I can see a case for an aggregate statement that high defensive zone usage doesn't necessarily correlate to high CA/60, but I think that would mean that many dmen getting high defensive zone starts are good enough at getting the puck back to cover up just that 15 seconds after lost defensive zone draws

again, I'll read the articles and try to not go into them with my mind made up
me trying to understand this:

i'm more of a Sabremetrics guy myself.

*Edit* not to be confused with a buffalo sabre metric guy though. big difference


Last edited by TheWolfOfBroadStreet: 04-21-2017 at 10:01 AM.
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Old
04-21-2017, 10:09 AM
  #179
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nope. if the leafs wanted provorov, they woulda just drafted him.
they saw something special in marner, and were rewarded with that pick

marner>provorov
Simmonds>JVR
JVR+Nielsen>Simmonds


to sum it up, hell no

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:20 AM
  #180
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wow apparently provorov is the most valuable dman in the entire league according to people in this thread.

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:27 AM
  #181
ACC1224
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Originally Posted by KirkAlbuquerque View Post
wow apparently provorov is the most valuable dman in the entire league according to people in this thread.
Not sure why you'd get that impression but he is a very good young player.

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:29 AM
  #182
whitstifier
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Originally Posted by Halla View Post
nope. if the leafs wanted provorov, they woulda just drafted him.
they saw something special in marner, and were rewarded with that pick

marner>provorov
Simmonds>JVR
JVR+Nielsen>Simmonds


to sum it up, hell no
In a redraft, they'd probably select Provorov

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:37 AM
  #183
Randy Randerson
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Originally Posted by whitstifier View Post
In a redraft, they'd probably select Provorov
can you link a source?

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:48 AM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KirkAlbuquerque View Post
wow apparently provorov is the most valuable dman in the entire league according to people in this thread.
wow apparently marner is the most valuable forward in the league according to people in this thread.


its easy to look silly when you dont read the explanations and understand context.

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:52 AM
  #185
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Originally Posted by whitstifier View Post
In a redraft, they'd probably select Provorov
Quite possibly. Marner would already have been taken.

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:56 AM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halla View Post
nope. if the leafs wanted provorov, they woulda just drafted him.
they saw something special in marner, and were rewarded with that pick

marner>provorov
Simmonds>JVR
JVR+Nielsen>Simmonds


to sum it up, hell no
And yet Philly was looking to trade up to #3 to make sure they got Provorov.

Nothing wrong with both teams being happy with their guys. Marner > Provy TO YOU AND LEAFS, BUT NOT TO PHILLY..

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:56 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Randy Randerson View Post
can you link a source?
Just a guess. They're comparable players in terms of value and D is a much bigger need for the Leafs

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:57 AM
  #188
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Originally Posted by Starat327 View Post
It doesnt work like that. He wouldnt have been playing with the same people. He wouldnt have gotten the same game time, etc.
That's kind of funny... ya, JvR has primarily played with Bozak over the years.... You know, Tyler Bozak, that superstar C..... Maybe if Philly had someone as good, they too could get great production out of JvR....

Fans on both sides get bent out of shape, and over value their players... so many ridiculous posts here.. It's crazy how people can't credit that JvR is a very good winger... sure, his size, you'd like him to use it more... but he puts points up. Will continue to, and is unlikely to breakdown as fast as those crash and bang wingers.

If Provorov was a RHD, I'd trade Marner to Philly, and even add.. As it sits right now, another LHD, as good as Provorov could be, isn't good asset management. It's not that Provorov wouldn't make our team better... he would, but it would be marginally, and we'd still have a giant hole on the right side, and lack the assets to obtain such a player.

For any other Leafs fans, who have in any way discredited Provorov, give your head a shake... he's good.

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Old
04-21-2017, 10:59 AM
  #189
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Originally Posted by ACC1224 View Post
Quite possibly. Marner would already have been taken.
I was so happy when the Leafs selected Marner. I was sure Arizona was taking him at 3. Especially since they had Domi and Dvorak on the team.

The Leafs have no intention of trading Marner anymore than Philly has trading Provorov.
These players mean the same thing to the fanbase. Not the position they play but the value.

This isn't going to happen. The Leafs should now focus on drafting D. Just because we made the playoffs one year means the build is over.

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Old
04-21-2017, 11:00 AM
  #190
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Originally Posted by Fogelhund View Post
That's kind of funny... ya, JvR has primarily played with Bozak over the years.... You know, Tyler Bozak, that superstar C..... Maybe if Philly had someone as good, they too could get great production out of JvR....

Fans on both sides get bent out of shape, and over value their players... so many ridiculous posts here.. It's crazy how people can't credit that JvR is a very good winger... sure, his size, you'd like him to use it more... but he puts points up. Will continue to, and is unlikely to breakdown as fast as those crash and bang wingers.

If Provorov was a RHD, I'd trade Marner to Philly, and even add.. As it sits right now, another LHD, as good as Provorov could be, isn't good asset management. For any other Leafs fans, who have in any way discredited Provorov, give your head a shake... he's good.
JVR is a good player. Some flyers fan wont admit that because of his past- but he had no chemistry with giroux. Flyers fans know this, because we watched him muck it up over the course of several years. JVR is a nice piece, but he isnt a good fit in philly, plain and simple.

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Old
04-21-2017, 11:02 AM
  #191
Baemon Severson
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Originally Posted by ACC1224 View Post
Not sure why you'd get that impression but he is a very good young player.
There was a poster that said he'd only trade Provorov for McDavid, who is a forward.

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04-21-2017, 11:03 AM
  #192
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Originally Posted by Fogelhund View Post
That's kind of funny... ya, JvR has primarily played with Bozak over the years.... You know, Tyler Bozak, that superstar C..... Maybe if Philly had someone as good, they too could get great production out of JvR....

Fans on both sides get bent out of shape, and over value their players... so many ridiculous posts here.. It's crazy how people can't credit that JvR is a very good winger... sure, his size, you'd like him to use it more... but he puts points up. Will continue to, and is unlikely to breakdown as fast as those crash and bang wingers.

If Provorov was a RHD, I'd trade Marner to Philly, and even add.. As it sits right now, another LHD, as good as Provorov could be, isn't good asset management. It's not that Provorov wouldn't make our team better... he would, but it would be marginally, and we'd still have a giant hole on the right side, and lack the assets to obtain such a player.

For any other Leafs fans, who have in any way discredited Provorov, give your head a shake... he's good.
If there's reasonable way to acquire a D of Provorov's ilk, you make it work. Handedness is irrelevant in such a case.

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04-21-2017, 11:05 AM
  #193
Baemon Severson
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I'd rather drill out my eyeballs than be forced to watch that soft, weak flake JVR fail to meet the potential his size and talent have given him.
Ha what?

In the past 3 seasons, JVR is 77th in points and 42nd in goals. He's a bonafide top line player.

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04-21-2017, 11:07 AM
  #194
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Originally Posted by Baemon Severson View Post
There was a poster that said he'd only trade Provorov for McDavid, who is a forward.
That was one poster.....not the whole thread. But you know that.

But seriously, where Philly is in their rebuild, there are not a top of players I would trade Provy for. We need a #1 Dman for the next decade....to trading him for a forward is dumb unless it's a no brainer...like McDavid.

Trading him for Marner is an easy know, even though he could be a PPG player.

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Old
04-21-2017, 11:08 AM
  #195
whitstifier
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Originally Posted by Baemon Severson View Post
Ha what?

In the past 3 seasons, JVR is 77th in points and 42nd in goals. He's a bonafide top line player.
The strong opinions on JVR are more about playing style . I think everyone understands that he's a good player

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04-21-2017, 11:13 AM
  #196
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Originally Posted by Baemon Severson View Post
Ha what?

In the past 3 seasons, JVR is 77th in points and 42nd in goals. He's a bonafide top line player.
As a Leafs fan... the only reason there was a JvR + for Simmonds suggestion in this trade, is that Leafs fan recognize the value of the grit that Simmonds brings, that JvR lacks in his game. What JvR does do, he is very good... it's that size, and what he doesn't do with it, that bothers people.

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Old
04-21-2017, 11:14 AM
  #197
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Originally Posted by Trapper View Post
I was so happy when the Leafs selected Marner. I was sure Arizona was taking him at 3. Especially since they had Domi and Dvorak on the team.

The Leafs have no intention of trading Marner anymore than Philly has trading Provorov.
These players mean the same thing to the fanbase. Not the position they play but the value.

This isn't going to happen. The Leafs should now focus on drafting D. Just because we made the playoffs one year means the build is over.
Agreed. There is no reason for either Team to not be thrilled with their player.

I'd love it if the Leafs could figure out a way to get Simmonds from them. He would be ideal on Matthews wing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baemon Severson View Post
There was a poster that said he'd only trade Provorov for McDavid, who is a forward.
The post I replied to said people not "a poster".

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Old
04-21-2017, 11:17 AM
  #198
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Originally Posted by Gavy View Post
One is already a franchise centre and the other you HOPE will be a 1d....
He was a #1 at 19 years old so hope has nothing to do with it. Plus Simmonds does way more than put up points. He does more both on and off the ice than the soft boiled egg jvr. How much will it cost to resign him by the way? Really the deal is Marner for Provorov and Simmonds so you can see why Ron Hextall says no while Lou would be all over a deal like that

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Old
04-21-2017, 11:35 AM
  #199
Randy Randerson
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Originally Posted by whitstifier View Post
Just a guess. They're comparable players in terms of value and D is a much bigger need for the Leafs
If Marner is still on the board, I think that's the way Toronto goes again. They knew at the time that they were taking him that he would likely be a winger in the NHL and the other guy that was left out of the 3-5 tier (Strome, Marner, Hanifin) was a dman, so they did pass up a dman to take a winger in Marner. If Werenski, Marner and Provorov were all on the board wit the pick with what we know today, there's a very good case for taking Werenski but I think Marner still goes before Provorov if the Leafs are making the pick again

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04-21-2017, 11:59 AM
  #200
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potential #1 D are more important than potential #1 wingers. that is not even a debate. it is far easier to acquire a scoring winger than it is a #1 D. sheesh, some of you leaf fans are just embarrassing yourselves with your bias. if you had Provorov you'd be saying the complete opposite, that you wouldn't trade him for a winger, no matter how good they are. wingers are the least important position on a team.

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