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Draft Qualities

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05-01-2004, 01:39 PM
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KingPurpleDinosaur
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Draft Qualities

I'm too lazy to do the research, so i'm hoping someone with some previous draft knowledge can answer this. but what exactly has been more effective in drafting...

1. drafting based on talent potential or work ethic?
2. size and less skill vs. smaller and more skilled?
3. pure offensive players (can't u teach them defense) vs well rounded players (can't teach offense right?)

basically, i'm just asking what is the qualities that make up a potentially good player and how do you say which player is better then which? when u have someone w/ much untapped potential but somewhat lazy, do u take him over someone who is close to reaching skill ceiling but is a hardworker.

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05-01-2004, 01:55 PM
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David A. Rainer
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There is no black and white answer. Every person has his preferences, every GM has his philosophy, every organization has their strength and weakness at developing certain kinds of players. I don't think you're going to find too much statistical evidence for most of it because the categories you're asking about are kind of subjective - you ask 30 different GMs and you'll probably get 30 different answers on whether someone has a good work ethic, or whether someone is more skilled or more well-rounded.

I have draft stats/probabilities for sucess sorted by draft round, year, and position and am working on by league drafted from. If someone could give me a formula to work with for some of your questions, I might be able to put something together.

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05-01-2004, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathFromAbove
There is no black and white answer. Every person has his preferences, every GM has his philosophy, every organization has their strength and weakness at developing certain kinds of players. I don't think you're going to find too much statistical evidence for most of it because the categories you're asking about are kind of subjective - you ask 30 different GMs and you'll probably get 30 different answers on whether someone has a good work ethic, or whether someone is more skilled or more well-rounded.

I have draft stats/probabilities for sucess sorted by draft round, year, and position and am working on by league drafted from. If someone could give me a formula to work with for some of your questions, I might be able to put something together.
i would love to see the data regarding draftees by position. how do you have this data organized? one large database? it would be awesome to have heights and weights in there as well, because then you could look at success rates of players of differing dimensions as the average dimensions of league players changes over time.

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05-01-2004, 02:26 PM
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punchy1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by navigator
i would love to see the data regarding draftees by position. how do you have this data organized? one large database? it would be awesome to have heights and weights in there as well, because then you could look at success rates of players of differing dimensions as the average dimensions of league players changes over time.

I don't have exactly what you are looking for but, if you go to the criteria portion of CSS webby they have exactly what and how they rank prospects and when they do their mock draft (they do it differently but it ends up being the same to me) they show what and why they feel each player should go where.

If you go and look at past drafts they are very informative.

Of course, they use statistics based on past performances and how they have grown over the past so many years and I know how some posters have a problem allowing players performances based on the actual numbers that they have put up to be what is used to determine what they have accomplished but, since the rest of the sports world uses them, I will as well as they provide a piece of the puzzle.


There are many ways to determine what makes a good prospect but, after sifting through everything I can find on the subject for the past couple of years, I would say that most NHL teams rank prospects on these qualities.

Skill at their position. (showing that they can compete at an above average level at the position that they play)

Stick Handling (puck handling)

Speed and Balance. (skating skills)

Size and projected final growth.

Growth in their position. (based on a players ability to continually improve their game)

Acoomplishments. (how have they done against intl competition, have they won a championship or lead their team/country etc to any significant acccomplishments and individual successes like winning a scoring title, rookie of the year, MVP etc)


Each team will have a different order for those skillsets but, they seem to be what is placed as most important based on what I have gathered.

If I were to break it down to what we have been trying to draft (not always) up until this past year as our top two priorities it would be, Skill and then Size.


Steckel Karlson Boyle to name a few are examples of how we have placed size as a priority over other values in some situations. I reckon that this past draft were a bit different in that we took the best player available and that as a strategy, we tend to go with that as our first option (best player available) but, if a big player who is a little bit lower ranked is available, we take him instead. I think rightly so sometimes.


Last edited by punchy1: 05-01-2004 at 07:33 PM.
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Old
05-01-2004, 07:35 PM
  #5
David A. Rainer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by navigator
i would love to see the data regarding draftees by position. how do you have this data organized? one large database? it would be awesome to have heights and weights in there as well, because then you could look at success rates of players of differing dimensions as the average dimensions of league players changes over time.
It is in one excel spreadsheet that has all 5883 picks made in the draft from it's inception thru 1995. I stopped at 1995 because for what I was compiling it for, anything after 1995 was too recent to be included. I have every pick, the drafting team, the position (except for 4 picks which the NHL and the drafting teams have been unable to determine for me), the year, the round, and the # of games played in the NHL. I am just now going thru and recording which league the pick came out of and will eventually add in the picks from 1996-present once I have compiled the probabilities I originally was looking for.

I could add heights and weights, but it will be near impossible to find some of the early picks, and their heights and weights often change dramatically over the years (their weights, at least) from what they were when they were drafted.

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