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Patrik Laine: 50 goals next season?

View Poll Results: 50 goals?
Yes 88 27.67%
No 230 72.33%
Voters: 318. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-18-2017, 10:55 AM
  #226
Krazy
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Well it's true that his prediction doesn't really warrant any kind of "you are master at hockey" things. I just thought that it's kind of cool that he actually got it rather close. It's a pure guess and I've done a lot of those. More often than not I get it totally wrong. I just complemented him on being on the nose when Laine actually had higher production that most of us thought.

As for the "fair to say he got 64 points" no it's not. We're doing non-serious guessing games here and it's perfectly fine to acknowledge that had Laine played more games he probably nets at least few points. Enough that 75, while bit over is still pretty close.



You are focusing way too much on stuff that has no bearing on what I'm saying. I'm not talking about anything else than the guy getting his bold 75 prediction pretty close PPG wise. That's nice. I'm not talking about anything else. Not Laine, or the draft class, or his previous predictions or anything else. Just simply saying he got it closer than most of the guys who railed him on his prediction (I was one of them you can look it up).

Once more so nothing is unclear. I am not saying he guessed it because he knows more about hockey than anyone else. I'm just saying that he got it pretty close when almost no-one else did. That's odd luck and he's a fan of the guy. Why not give him a nod on it? It was a nice prediction. Just like I predicted the Preds will win their series against Ducks. When it happens it doesn't mean I know something most dont', just means I guessed it right.
Sure but in your terms that would be like picking both teams. But ok I get it.

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Old
05-18-2017, 10:59 AM
  #227
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Sure but in your terms that would be like picking both teams. But ok I get it.
I think we understand each other but I just have to ask, how so?

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05-18-2017, 11:08 AM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Plural View Post
I think we understand each other but I just have to ask, how so?
It was one of many predictions that turned out to be closer to right than expected.

Not like calling Nashville will win the cup pre playoffs, never changing and being proven right.
There were multiple predictions over multiple threads (even in the same thread) and now one that is semi realistic is being brought up while the rest are being ignores

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05-18-2017, 11:10 AM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Krazy View Post
It was one of many predictions that turned out to be closer to right than expected.

Not like calling Nashville will win the cup pre playoffs, never changing and being proven right.
There were multiple predictions.
Ahh, yeah my example wasn't really that good. But you get my point. It doesn't really matter how many of his predictions came to true and why. Just that he got one relatively close. In august we'll again have the "predict your scoring leaders for next season" threads and we all post in them giving our top-10 or so. Nobody ever gets all right but sometimes somebody gets one or two "unorthodox" guesses right and people usually give the thumbs up after that. This is similar.

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05-18-2017, 11:10 AM
  #230
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My question is, if Stamkos scored 50 as a 19 year-old, then why can't Laine?

Both will/had elite support in the form of Scheifele/St.Louis.

The ONLY thing though was that Stamkos was an elite skater and could create more separation than Laine.

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Old
05-18-2017, 11:20 AM
  #231
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My question is, if Stamkos scored 50 as a 19 year-old, then why can't Laine?

Both will/had elite support in the form of Scheifele/St.Louis.

The ONLY thing though was that Stamkos was an elite skater and could create more separation than Laine.

Scoring has dropped considerably. I don't think anyone is arguing he won't be a goal scoring threat. But 50 in a league where 44 was the best anyone could do and only ovy has gotten there in 5 years?

With a shooting percentage of 15.7% on a net with a goalie in it and not a ridiculous bank off a players face (trending down to 10% by the end of the year). 50 is tough. Really tough.

Using a 17.6% shooting accuracy he would have to get like 285 shots. (3.4 ish a game).

Assuming a 15.7% accuracy. (His percentage with a goalie in the net and you know not banking a wide shot of a d mans face).

He would have to get about 320 shots.

Using a 12.3% accuracy (real goals after hot start). He would have to Get like 400 shots.


Most distance scoring wingers (Kessel, ovy 2.0 and tarasenko) shoot 10-15%.

We will see but to say he will easily score 50 is nuts

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Old
05-18-2017, 11:23 AM
  #232
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Originally Posted by Krazy View Post
Scoring has dropped considerably. I don't think anyone is arguing he won't be a goal scoring threat. But 50 in a league where 44 was the best anyone could do and only ovy has gotten there in 5 years?

With a shooting percentage of 15.7% on a net with a goalie in it and not a ridiculous bank off a players face (trending down to 10% by the end of the year). 50 is tough. Really tough.

Using a 17.6% shooting accuracy he would have to get like 285 shots. (3.4 ish a game).

Assuming a 15.7% accuracy. (His percentage with a goalie in the net and you know not banking a wide shot of a d mans face).

He would have to get about 320 shots.

Using a 12.3% accuracy (real goals after hot start). He would have to Get like 400 shots.


Most distance scoring wingers (Kessel, ovy 2.0 and tarasenko) shoot 10-15%.

We will see but to say he will easily score 50 is nuts
Fair points.

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05-18-2017, 11:46 AM
  #233
Krazy
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Fair points.
What is really interesting about the Stamkos example is that he is often viewed as the best example of a high shot % goal scorer (17.1% avg over his career).

But when you look at shot attempts, Stamkos has one of the highest total Shot attempts in the league. in his highest scoring years, stammer has consistently taken over 500 shots at net (5.86 total shot attempts per game!).

While he has less recorded shots than many others (ovy) his total shot attempts are higher. Im not 100% sure what to make of this, is it a sampling error from home stats? Anyway, he scores on about 9% of the shots he takes at net.

Conversely, Ovy who only has a 12.3 percentage but only gets 4.93 shots per game. Ovy also scores on about 7% of the shots he takes at net.

Similarly Tarasenko scores on about 7% of the shots he directs at net.

Laine himself scored on exactly 10% of the shots he directed at net this year.

It looks like for most elite goal scorers, you can expect to score on 10-15% of shots on net, and 7-10% you direct at net. Volume is Key.

If this trend were to hold, Laine would have to get 500 Total shot attempts to hit 50.



I don't think Laine shoots enough, but he could be the exception to the rule


Last edited by Krazy: 05-18-2017 at 12:12 PM. Reason: wrong decimal places (looking at phone)
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Old
05-18-2017, 12:15 PM
  #234
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What is really interesting about the Stamkos example is that he is often viewed as the best example of a high shot % goal scorer (17.1% avg over his career).

But when you look at shot attempts, Stamkos has one of the highest total Shot attempts in the league. in his highest scoring years, stammer has consistently taken over 500 shots at net (5.86 total shot attempts per game!).

While he has less recorded shots than many others (ovy) his total shot attempts are higher. Im not 100% sure what to make of this, is it a sampling error from home stats? Anyway, he scores on almost 1% of the shots he directs at net (.009).

Conversely, Ovy who only has a 12.3 percentage but only gets 4.93 shots per game. Ovy also scores on slightly less than 1% of the shots he takes at net. (.007).

Similarly Tarasenko scores on almost 1% of the shots he directs at net (.007).

It looks like for most elite goal scorers, you can expect to score on 10-15% of shots on net, and more importantly, volume is Key.

I don't think Laine shoots enough, but he could be the exception to the rule
He definatly must shoot more.

He likely will in my opinion.

In worst case scenario he will simply set up his teammates while assassinating and probably wont reach 50 unless he manage to duplicate this year but not fall off.

Think he was pacing 53 or more goals midseason or so. Just dont fall off at the end and play full season höhö.

Anyways his shot is such a threat that he might be a bit of an exception but i do not believe at this point that he can score 40-50 or more without increasing his shot volume by quite a bit.

What was his shot attemps this season btw?

Here is a nice visualization of his season.
Think the shots for definatly went to the right direction. Especially early season was really bad in this area when the team was extremely injured and it was basically a one line team without little. Dont know how much this affects but seems to be a factor. Oddly it also seem to correlate with how i thought he looked tired. Also on the goal chart i dont know how much credit can be given to laines shot for outscoring opponents despite being heavily outshot but again got to be a factor.



And here is a visualuzation of the injuries. Seems to go hand in hand for the most part. Notice that when little returns suddenly laines shots for on the graph above just takes off completely. Especially considering as his icetime gets lower.



And finally the whole team.


He definatly has lots to improve but i think that considering how injured the team was his advanced stats definatly took a hit from being thrown up against top pairings for the first 25 games or so.

Think we will see a healthy boost in shots next season.

What do you make of this?

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Old
05-18-2017, 12:18 PM
  #235
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Soooo......You are just saying "well he first predicted 85 points, but I decided he wasn't serious, so then he said 75 points and if you give Laine points for games he didnt play he was only 3 off". That doesn't make one "more right" than others. The kid scored 64 points... Not 75, not 85.

That isn't to say this one bold prediction couldn't be construed as somewhat accurate, but cherry picking one favorable prediction out of a sea of other claims ("Aho is better than Marner, Laine is better than Ovechkin", Laine will score 60 goals) is not good support for the current claim "Laine will easily score 50 goals next year". I am assuming that this is the point of your post. That because in your mind, one poster was right when you decided he was being serious, this poster's vote has more weight?

It's funny, because I think personally more "Leaf" fans were ultimately more accurate in terms of predictions and projections. I don't think that I made a prediction, but I doubt I would have said 35/65..... Its tough to go back now, but I know that I expected matthews to be probably 5 or so goals higher than eichel. I wouldnt have said 40g 70 pts.

I know that I thought it would be

Matthews

Laine/Nylander (Marner)

Tkachuck/Aho....

Marner was a question mark. I thought he was on the Laine/Nylander tier, but I didn't know how well he would translate at this age. Laine (despite the undeveloped narrative) and Nylander had the advantage of playing against men in pro leagues and playoffs.

JP was the other ? If he ended up playing with McDavid.......

I thought Matthews would be the best and most complete. I thought he would score more 5 on 5 and create more on his own. I also thought laine would keep it close if he had favourable linemates.... But would be much more line dependent. While the entire curve was probably shifted 5-10 pts, it turned out to be pretty much how it worked out. I would have been low on raw numbers, but the order was right.

I personally think I was more right than many of the laine-atics, but it is because I think about the things I was right about (linemate dependency, disappearing in tight games, dropping shooting percentage, less than AM in 5 on 5 and overall scoring).

On the other side people think that they are more right because of what they focus on.....

Edit: The point of this was to say that I think it is more logical to look at tangible evidence such as OISH, his current shooting percentage, historical progression of top scorers and shooting percentage of top snipers (10-15%) than to hang one's hat on one "hit" in a series of misses
What on earth was the purpose of this reply (3rd last chapter)? It's got the scent of "actually, my predictions were the closest" written all over. You don't think people toyed with those same exact factors in their heads? If that's the case, I guess you think your somehow above from the rest of us. Again, before this derails any further, the topic has nothing whatsoever to do with how other players excelled with their respective seasons.

Now I cannot tell in behalf of ijuka why he changed his prediction from 85pts to 75pts, yet however he did. Unfortunately HFboards does not restrict one from adjusting predictions once they are originally laid out. So what exactly is your point? If he went from 85pts to 55pts then yeah sure you might have a case, but c'mon now, he ended up with 75 points and stuck with it (along with all the insults and other idiotic responses).

As for "handing points over"? Are you for real? No one is handing over anything. Laine was on a pace for 72 points. He might have ended with 70 or 75 or whatever. If you cannot comprehend this, then sorry but I'm not going to start explaining the basic math or projected scoring pace.

Now as for this so called "cherry-picking" of ijuka's prediction. I threw it out there, because again he was being singled out for his bold predictions. That has absolutely nothing to do with cherry-picking in it's fundamental meaning. If I wanted to cherry-pick, I'd a) goto the forest b) would rather go with the 65 goals that someone threw out there. You're making absolutely no sense. Struggling to understand whatever point your trying to make here. Perhaps you didn't read my original posts or something cause this sounds as if someone was carving a piece off a tree, then breaking a window and somehow trying to get wood and glass stick together.

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05-18-2017, 12:37 PM
  #236
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He definatly must shoot more.

He likely will in my opinion.

In worst case scenario he will simply set up his teammates while assassinating and probably wont reach 50 unless he manage to duplicate this year but not fall off.

Think he was pacing 53 or more goals midseason or so. Just dont fall off at the end and play full season höhö.

Anyways his shot is such a threat that he might be a bit of an exception but i do not believe at this point that he can score 40-50 or more without increasing his shot volume by quite a bit.

What was his shot attemps this season btw?

Here is a nice visualization of his season.
Think the shots for definatly went to the right direction. Especially early season was really bad in this area when the team was extremely injured and it was basically a one line team without little. Dont know how much this affects but seems to be a factor. Oddly it also seem to correlate with how i thought he looked tired. Also on the goal chart i dont know how much credit can be given to laines shot for outscoring opponents despite being heavily outshot but again got to be a factor.



And here is a visualuzation of the injuries. Seems to go hand in hand for the most part. Notice that when little returns suddenly laines shots for on the graph above just takes off completely. Especially considering as his icetime gets lower.



And finally the whole team.


He definatly has lots to improve but i think that considering how injured the team was his advanced stats definatly took a hit from being thrown up against top pairings for the first 25 games or so.

Think we will see a healthy boost in shots next season.

What do you make of this?
Im actually trying to work it out as I go... Is TSA more predictive than shooting percentage which seems to fluctuate? Also, my math in the post you quoted was wrong (misread decimal place) on a tiny phone.... I will think about it.....

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05-18-2017, 12:45 PM
  #237
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@krazy

Hmm i dont know... perhaps combining them is most accurate.. but yeah id argue both fluctuate alot in such "small" sample sizes...

Lets just hope jets are healthier next season. Considering the situation rookie laine did pretty good, just needs more trigger happyness especially in the slot

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05-18-2017, 12:54 PM
  #238
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What on earth was the purpose of this reply (3rd last chapter)? It's got the scent of "actually, my predictions were the closest" written all over. You don't think people toyed with those same exact factors in their heads? If that's the case, I guess you think your somehow above from the rest of us. Again, before this derails any further, the topic has nothing whatsoever to do with how other players excelled with their respective seasons.

Now I cannot tell in behalf of ijuka why he changed his prediction from 85pts to 75pts, yet however he did. Unfortunately HFboards does not restrict one from adjusting predictions once they are originally laid out. So what exactly is your point? If he went from 85pts to 55pts then yeah sure you might have a case, but c'mon now, he ended up with 75 points and stuck with it (along with all the insults and other idiotic responses).

As for "handing points over"? Are you for real? No one is handing over anything. Laine was on a pace for 72 points. He might have ended with 70 or 75 or whatever. If you cannot comprehend this, then sorry but I'm not going to start explaining the basic math or projected scoring pace.

Now as for this so called "cherry-picking" of ijuka's prediction. I threw it out there, because again he was being singled out for his bold predictions. That has absolutely nothing to do with cherry-picking in it's fundamental meaning. If I wanted to cherry-pick, I'd a) goto the forest b) would rather go with the 65 goals that someone threw out there. You're making absolutely no sense. Struggling to understand whatever point your trying to make here. Perhaps you didn't read my original posts or something cause this sounds as if someone was carving a piece off a tree, then breaking a window and somehow trying to get wood and glass stick together.

What I am saying is, I was right about some and wrong about some... As we all are. Some are more wrong than others of course, but ultimately we ALL think we are more right than others, because thats what we focus on. I think I was way more right than wrong. But I focus on the things that I was right about. Psycho_Dad threw himself a party when Laine scored 35.... We all do it.

You are focusing on one of the many predictions and claims that were made about the player by a single poster. There were multiple threads, multiple predictions and many were wrong. Saying someone will score 85pts, no maybe 75 pts... etc is not something to hang ones hat on. Accuracy is not 1 bold prediction. The "sea of other claims" were all made by the same poster.

I don't believe that this 75 pts is more "accurate" than others at all considering amount of predictions and context (I predict laine will lead rookie scoring by 15-25 pts was also predicted). Rookie scoring was highly inflated this year.

If the point is to predict next year and provide reasons as to why you think so, saying "well this guy was more accurate" is not a good argument. Especially when "accuracy" is highly debatable. I literally said it in the edit as I thought I might not be clear.

Edit. I should add that your post seemed to imply that certain posters had the last laugh in terms of being right. Again that is not at all what happened in my opinion.

The idea that he scores 50 goals easily is pretty silly (even if he does it it won't be easy). Somehow claiming that he was most right makes no sense. That's what I was saying.


Last edited by Krazy: 05-18-2017 at 02:05 PM.
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Old
05-18-2017, 12:54 PM
  #239
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32 goals in 69 games. Book it.

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05-18-2017, 01:00 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by ijuka View Post
Laine on pace for over 72 points = way off the mark with 75? Good job digging old posts up and concentrating on players who have nothing to do with this thread, though.
Yea he was on pace for 72, but he'd probably only score 65-67, considering how tired he would have been by the end of a full season. Isn't that why he struggled so much down the stretch?

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05-18-2017, 01:03 PM
  #241
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@krazy

Hmm i dont know... perhaps combining them is most accurate.. but yeah id argue both fluctuate alot in such "small" sample sizes...

Lets just hope jets are healthier next season. Considering the situation rookie laine did pretty good, just needs more trigger happyness especially in the slot

This might be an interesting math project for you.
I have looked at Kessel, Laine, Ovy, Stammer, Tarasenko and Matthews.

All seem to score on 6-10% of shot attempts... This might be a better predictor than shooting percentage? Has this been done before (total shot attempts)

Edit. I have looked at Crosby, Ben and perry all are between 7 and 9.5%


Last edited by Krazy: 05-18-2017 at 01:42 PM.
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05-18-2017, 02:02 PM
  #242
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I put him as a solid lock for 40.With his linemates,he will get plenty of chances.With team defenses and goalies nowadays getting better,50 will be tough.Not impossible,but tough.

Thats not to say with a nice hot streak or 2,that he cant reach 50.Anything is possible.Odds are against him though.

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05-18-2017, 03:41 PM
  #243
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This might be an interesting math project for you.
I have looked at Kessel, Laine, Ovy, Stammer, Tarasenko and Matthews.

All seem to score on 6-10% of shot attempts... This might be a better predictor than shooting percentage? Has this been done before (total shot attempts)

Edit. I have looked at Crosby, Ben and perry all are between 7 and 9.5%
At first glance, very possible. One unknown factor to me is what is considered a shot attemp? Is a clearing the puck from own zone or along the boards considered shot attemps?

If its shots angled towards the goals you might be on to something.

An unknown factor that may impact results is...intent.

Did the player mean to hit the goals on all those attemps or does he go for rebounds or setting up a deflection etc etc.

Perhaps it evens out between playera over a season, i dont know.


Im thinking that me might have to watch the players closely to get a somewhat clear picture.

To judge overall accuracy we can take total shot attemps and compare to shot on goal.

To find out just how accurate someones shot is we can go by how many goals are scored in those shot on goals aka shooting %.

But i fear this is rather simplistic but should be adequate for our simple comparisons.

Ill run some calculations between total shot attemps and shots on goals to see if it says anything interesting.

Ill let you develope your theory on goals contra total shot attemps and if you dont find any holes i can take a look and see if i find anything and youll do the same on my theory (if it even shows anything).

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05-18-2017, 04:13 PM
  #244
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Yea he was on pace for 72, but he'd probably only score 65-67, considering how tired he would have been by the end of a full season. Isn't that why he struggled so much down the stretch?
Who knows? He was on a hot streak before and after his concussion.

Do you think that having a concussion helps a player? I do think that it's a negative. So one would expect his hot streak to continue being hot during that time he was concussed. No? I consider the whole notion that him being concussed was a positive because he got to rest rather ridiculous, to be frank.

Regardless, when making preseason predictions, I at least assume 82 games played. I don't consider potential injuries. You might predict differently. I'm not sure what this even is about at this point.

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05-18-2017, 04:13 PM
  #245
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This should be a good way to find out overall accuracy but also a players ability to get the shot on net at 5v5 without getting it deflected/missing the net.

Shots on goal/total shot attemps = %

Tarasenko 25.3
Crosby 20.4
Ovi 28.1
Matthews 23.1
Laine 23.4
Mcdavid 18.9
Eichel 28.4
Barkov 17.4
Stamkos (60 goal season) 24.8
Ovi (65 goal season) 31.9 *note total shots were not counted back then so i used a very high 1400 attemps (highest since then was 1457 by tavares) ovi higgest recorded is 1325) but its odds how different stamkos and ovi scored 60+ goals differently*

Hyman 13.7
Nylander 18.4
Scheifele 14.3


Okay so just from this small sample it tells me some interesting stuff. For example scheifele had alot more shot attemps than laine but a higher percentage of the shots actually making it to the net went in.

So maybe one use of this could be to find out how difficult a player is to defend, i dont know.

At most i do think this only tells you how good a player is at getting a dangerous shot of... for example crosby, 44 goals in those 20 % of total shots taken were on goal, he made them count. As did many on the list.

As for your prediction theory Krazy we can use it on other previous years to see if we can find consistent indication of anything. If we can find any limits as to "sustainability" or something. Start with high scoring season for given player and see if we see anything wildly above 10%?

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05-19-2017, 02:33 AM
  #246
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Man, reading what Winnipeg fans are saying about Laine not being able to score without Scheif raises red flags. Is Laine incapable of creating his own offense?

I mean Ovechkin scored 52 in his rookie year with Zubrus as his centermen and hasn't needed to rely on backstrom to score goals. Matthews just scored 40 with Hyman as his winger all year.

If you take Laine away from Scheif and his numbers tanked, that makes him a byproduct of scheif. We have seen it before. Cheechoo scored 56 because of thornton, heatley scored a **** ton next to spezza..........

All im saying is using the excuse "he's not producing cause he's not playing with player x" just screams cant create his own offense to me. Crosby has made third liners look like studs his whole career. Never affected him that he wasn't playing with malkin. Just looks bad.

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05-19-2017, 03:41 AM
  #247
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Man, reading what Winnipeg fans are saying about Laine not being able to score without Scheif raises red flags. Is Laine incapable of creating his own offense?

I mean Ovechkin scored 52 in his rookie year with Zubrus as his centermen and hasn't needed to rely on backstrom to score goals. Matthews just scored 40 with Hyman as his winger all year.

If you take Laine away from Scheif and his numbers tanked, that makes him a byproduct of scheif. We have seen it before. Cheechoo scored 56 because of thornton, heatley scored a **** ton next to spezza..........

All im saying is using the excuse "he's not producing cause he's not playing with player x" just screams cant create his own offense to me. Crosby has made third liners look like studs his whole career. Never affected him that he wasn't playing with malkin. Just looks bad.
Nah, he does create for himself too.. its just that his AND scheifeles numbers see a major boost when playing together.

Scheifeles numbers "tank" to about the same extent without laine over the season...does this mean scheifele cant create for himself?

They were simply the best combo on the team and obviously scheifele has been huge for Laines rookie season going up against top competition.

Laine produced with little on a good to great pace earlier in the seaaon..that last stint doesnt define his season.

Ehlers went thru a much worse stint with little recording 0 points in 8 games. At another point in the season laine little ehlers produced well while wheeler and scheifele were stone cold..untill laine replaced wheeler resulting in scheifele going ppg+.

Flow and ebb of the season.

If matthews season was cut short like laines hed finnish the season with about 7 games with 0 points...

They are rookies in the end...watch laine play he definatly created alot this season.

Here is a relative short highlight video of a few games without scheifele for the first few..notice how much better he and scheifele looks in comparison.



As you probably can tell little and laine arent nearly as good of a match as laine scheifele...just as scheifele abd wheeler arent nearly as good.

But if you want to believe laine is a byproduct of scheifele go ahead.

5v5
Laine w/ scheifele 16g 27p in 537:32
Scheifele w/ laine 10g 31p in 537:32

Laine w/o scheifele 5g 12p in 493:55
Scheifele w/o laine 7g 20p in 679:32

Keep in mind scheifele plays with wheeler when not with laine...

Not bad for a rookie. 8 less point in in ~185 less minutes of play...and as i said scheifele plays with wheeler when not with laine.. thats kinda big in my opinion.

Little and laines style of play arent a good combo in my opinion.

Despite this laine was littles most effective linemate...just as he was scheifeles..

Scheifele was laines most effective linemate.

I completely understand fans not wanting them to be sepparate but id also think it would be good for laine to get to drive a line by himself just to see if he can, next season.


Last edited by Narow: 05-19-2017 at 04:05 AM.
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05-19-2017, 05:00 AM
  #248
kelsier
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What I am saying is, I was right about some and wrong about some... As we all are. Some are more wrong than others of course, but ultimately we ALL think we are more right than others, because thats what we focus on. I think I was way more right than wrong. But I focus on the things that I was right about. Psycho_Dad threw himself a party when Laine scored 35.... We all do it.

You are focusing on one of the many predictions and claims that were made about the player by a single poster. There were multiple threads, multiple predictions and many were wrong. Saying someone will score 85pts, no maybe 75 pts... etc is not something to hang ones hat on. Accuracy is not 1 bold prediction. The "sea of other claims" were all made by the same poster.

I don't believe that this 75 pts is more "accurate" than others at all considering amount of predictions and context (I predict laine will lead rookie scoring by 15-25 pts was also predicted). Rookie scoring was highly inflated this year.

If the point is to predict next year and provide reasons as to why you think so, saying "well this guy was more accurate" is not a good argument. Especially when "accuracy" is highly debatable. I literally said it in the edit as I thought I might not be clear.

Edit. I should add that your post seemed to imply that certain posters had the last laugh in terms of being right. Again that is not at all what happened in my opinion.

The idea that he scores 50 goals easily is pretty silly (even if he does it it won't be easy). Somehow claiming that he was most right makes no sense. That's what I was saying.
Now again and for the last time. I didn't just randomly pick one favourable example but deliberately one certain prediction that received the most scrutiny (of which majority was downright childish). Also everyone who's followed the past and ongoing Laine threads know about ijuka and by now should also know his focus is, and always has been mainly on Patrik Laine. Now if you don't think he got the last laugh, then by all means that's fine with me. In the end it's not really even about the last laughs, but more about attempts of trying to yet again single him out (at least originally). I just can't tolerate that anymore I can tolerate people who go digging dirt (unprovoked) about other posters. That kind of behaviour is the lowest of low I've seen happening here and it needs to stop.

Now yes, saying someone can easily score 50 goals in today's NHL can be considered a reach but posters are allowed to make those predictions without having people quoting and mocking them in the process. Now whether or not he will depends on so many factors, of which many aren't directly even in the hands of the player himself. If his development curve doesn't hinder (and we do not yet know whether it will or won't), that is entirely possible, while at the same time you can say it's unlikely. Yet, if one player can turn your predictions upside down, that would be Patrik Laine. The common sense tells you no way but this kid has defied all the odds throughout his short career. I wouldn't make a bet either way at this point (if large sums were involved).

I don't agree that people think they are more right than the others. I certainly won't. I had my predictions wrong, including Laine, including Matthews and then the "second tier guys" especially Marner. There's no shame whatsoever admitting of being wrong. No one has a crystal ball they can lean onto and in this game we witnessed a lot of anomalies, which in this sense is great for the future of the sport as it indicates the strength of the future young guns. Especially for your own organisation.

Anyway, the talk has derailed enough. Time to go back to the origin and let people talk about the next great goal scorer rather than argue over happenings in the past.

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05-19-2017, 11:16 AM
  #249
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Scoring has dropped considerably. I don't think anyone is arguing he won't be a goal scoring threat. But 50 in a league where 44 was the best anyone could do and only ovy has gotten there in 5 years?

With a shooting percentage of 15.7% on a net with a goalie in it and not a ridiculous bank off a players face (trending down to 10% by the end of the year). 50 is tough. Really tough.

Using a 17.6% shooting accuracy he would have to get like 285 shots. (3.4 ish a game).

Assuming a 15.7% accuracy. (His percentage with a goalie in the net and you know not banking a wide shot of a d mans face).

He would have to get about 320 shots.

Using a 12.3% accuracy (real goals after hot start). He would have to Get like 400 shots.


Most distance scoring wingers (Kessel, ovy 2.0 and tarasenko) shoot 10-15%.

We will see but to say he will easily score 50 is nuts
You're telling Laine he has to play a certain way to obtain it
When Laine has a different approach on how to get goals

One thing you guys keep understating is that Laine is also a playmaker. His goals to assists ratio is pretty balanced for a reason

So no I'd rather he not follow your status quo because you think that's what needs to be done

I'd rather he get 42 goals and 40 assists because he's looking for a play rather than just focusing on shooting

I guess hockey is an on the rails type a sport now

I like hockey because of the depth of game play. These "you must do this to do this" sucks the life out of it


Last edited by Peggy: 05-19-2017 at 11:29 AM.
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05-19-2017, 12:03 PM
  #250
ijuka
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Man, reading what Winnipeg fans are saying about Laine not being able to score without Scheif raises red flags. Is Laine incapable of creating his own offense?
In general? That's unknown.

Last season? Laine wasn't able to generate much on his own last season. To be frank, he was barely able to play the game at a decent level last season. If he wasn't putting up points, he'd have been sent to AHL. His basic game was not at a high enough level to really play in NHL in my opinion.

So do you see the context in this? He clearly wasn't NHL ready, at least in some aspects. His acceleration was really sub par and he got into tons of trouble due to it almost every shift, he still had the large half circle turns(common in Liiga where the pace is much slower) that constantly caused him to be late from plays, he didn't use his body properly in puck battles and often lazily stick checked instead, he was weak along the boards in general(Liiga and Finnish hockey in general isn't very big on board play in comparison to NA) and the list goes on and on. But this is just natural, isn't it? Most players aren't NHL ready at 18. And there's really no shame in him not being so, especially considering how he was even projected to be a bit of a project due to his physical attributes not being up to par at all. In fact, I was actually surprised by how little he'd progressed. I did expect him to improve more than this in these aspects, but thinking back it does make sense as he only got to train for 5 weeks and had a knee surgery before that, as well as tons of flights back and forth across the pond.


So... How did he score 36 goals and 64 points in 73 games in spite of this, being above PPG pace until, what, 59 games in? I'd like you to spend some time thinking about this. And about whether it's accurate to conclude that he as a player "cannot generate his own offense" when he could not do so at 18 years of age, with these issues I pointed out here.





And yes certainly, my predictions on Connor, Marner, Matthews, whatever are like this: I see that they're talked about in the thread, I pick some number and go with it. In that case, even intentionally favoring the Jets. Just like if there's a random thread about Tarasenko scoring, I might post a prediction about him without doing any research, just going with my gut feeling. What's the big deal with it?

Now why is Laine different here? Well, I had actually analysed tens if not hundreds of his games and have actually spent a lot of time projecting how he'd do in NHL. A Laine prediction of mine is far different from a Marner prediction of mine, and I admit I was completely wrong about him. But it's strange how this isn't just common sense, right? Why would I care about Marner enough to study him in depth?

By the way, I also predicted that Puljujärvi wouldn't do well this season, even though I'm not sure if I actually typed that sort of a thing here(Finnish homerism and all). But I had quite a few arguments with Joe MacMillan on here about him and have been quite correct about him so far as well. And that's another player I've heavily concentrated on. As is Aho by the way, and same thing.

Bottom line: My Laine predictions and my Marner or Connor predictions don't carry the same amount of weight.


Last edited by ijuka: 05-19-2017 at 12:09 PM.
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