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Carey Price - It's on Him Edition

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Old
05-19-2017, 04:44 PM
  #226
scrubadam
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If you like a goalie that much and have a high pick then trade down. Odds are the goalie will still be there.

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05-19-2017, 04:46 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
Note that now you are objecting to the assumption of perfect information, and not the conclusion that you shouldn't necessarily take the BPA. You're losing the plot.
I'm not losing anything. I'm (rightly) pointing out to you that there's no such thing as the perfect information scenario you've proposed. Deloreans don't have flux capacitors in them and the Wings couldn't have known that no team would ever draft Datsyuk.

Moreover, it ignores the entire point here... they had no idea how good a player he was.

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Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
You must know that I am a dyed in the wool Bergevin hater, and I blame him for not even attempting to get us top 6 centers.

But it's interesting that you're absolving Gainey et al. from wasting a golden opportunity of getting a #1 C on a position that could be easily filled otherwise.
I'm pretty sure I roasted Gainey earlier when I mentioned the ridiculous McDonnaugh trade. I don't know why he thought Gomez was the answer when Koivu was just as good, had been here forever and was cheaper.

Of course I would've traded Koivu before he left to Anaheim along with Souray for Bobby Ryan and draft picks. I said so at the time but that's a whole other story...
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Lol. Because we would have had him for the last decade in which he's been damn near a PPG 1C which are impossible to obtain?

Let's not act like Price hasn't had his fair share of ups and downs, or like he's had half the amount of playoff sucess that Kopitar has had. 10 million dollar contracts are earned. Let's hope we don't end up giving Price one.
Unlike the Montreal Canadiens the LA Kings didn't sabotage themselves with an idiot coach and went out and got Carter and Gaborik to bolster the roster. In BOTH those seasons they went on to win cups. They built a great team over there and added to it. Meanwhile we've done everything we can here to shoot ourselves in the foot. How the hell do we wind up using Desharnais as our first line center? Why are we using Dannault now? These are unforced errors that have killed us. Meanwhile our GM has mostly sat on the sidelines and got ripped off on the only big trade he's made. Not a recipe for success.

As for Kopitar... solid player. But he's had seasons where he's struggled to reach 10 goals. There's no way that he's worth 10 million. And that's why he just might be available right now. I'm sure they're wondering about getting out from under that contract because it could be an albatross. From my standpoint, he's worth taking a risk on. We could try Galchenyuk and Beaulieu (cheaper younger options who would be wasted here anyway) and see if it works.

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Old
05-19-2017, 04:53 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by habnatic View Post
Drafting goalies in the top 5 is incredibly dumb, even if we got an outstanding player by doing so. Most of the time there very difficult to project.
Again, very few goalies get drafted top five. Those that do tend to have great success. It's not a dumb move esp if the draft isn't great.

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05-19-2017, 05:17 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Again, very few goalies get drafted top five. Those that do tend to have great success. It's not a dumb move esp if the draft isn't great.
In the past 20 years here are the goalies picked with top-10 picks

Luongo (4)
Finley (6)
Dipietro (1)
Krahn (9)
Leclaire (8)
Blackburn (10)
Lehtonen (2)
Fleury (1)
Montoya (6)
Price(5)

Historically picking a goalie with a high pick hasn't worked out.

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05-19-2017, 06:18 PM
  #230
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
In the past 20 years here are the goalies picked with top-10 picks

Luongo (4)
Finley (6)
Dipietro (1)
Krahn (9)
Leclaire (8)
Blackburn (10)
Lehtonen (2)
Fleury (1)
Montoya (6)
Price(5)

Historically picking a goalie with a high pick hasn't worked out.
Since 1980 there have been four or five picked. Most have either cups or Vezinas behind them. All at minimum turned into pretty solid starters. It's a 100 percent success rate in terms of getting at least a good player. And some are great.

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05-19-2017, 06:28 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
In the past 20 years here are the goalies picked with top-10 picks

Luongo (4)
Finley (6)
Dipietro (1)
Krahn (9)
Leclaire (8)
Blackburn (10)
Lehtonen (2)
Fleury (1)
Montoya (6)
Price(5)

Historically picking a goalie with a high pick hasn't worked out.
The only players that lived up to a high pick is Price and Luongo, and neither has a cup.

Even the decent guys like Fleury or Lehtonen, their teams would of been better off pick a F or D and trading/signing a goalie. Pens didn't win the cup because of MAF.

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05-19-2017, 07:01 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
In the past 20 years here are the goalies picked with top-10 picks

Luongo (4)
Finley (6)
Dipietro (1)
Krahn (9)
Leclaire (8)
Blackburn (10)
Lehtonen (2)
Fleury (1)
Montoya (6)
Price(5)

Historically picking a goalie with a high pick hasn't worked out.
So this is a situation where the Habs actually outperformed everyone else.

When Gainey said he was a workhorse (or whatever), he was right, and I knew we made the right decision keeping Carey.

Took awhile + massive surrounding crew for Kopitar to look so great. Same is true (prospectively) for Price, except I think he's an even better player and difference maker. I'd do that draft exactly the same. It was clearly the best 1st round draft decision since the start of the millenium. I don't think Kopitar would have made it in MTL. Carey has shown he can make it in literally the toughest position-market combo.

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05-19-2017, 08:42 PM
  #233
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So this is a situation where the Habs actually outperformed everyone else.

When Gainey said he was a workhorse (or whatever), he was right, and I knew we made the right decision keeping Carey.

Took awhile + massive surrounding crew for Kopitar to look so great. Same is true (prospectively) for Price, except I think he's an even better player and difference maker. I'd do that draft exactly the same. It was clearly the best 1st round draft decision since the start of the millenium. I don't think Kopitar would have made it in MTL. Carey has shown he can make it in literally the toughest position-market combo.
I wasn't happy with the pick at the time, but I gave Timmins the benefit of the doubt and looking back it was a great pick. Kopitar might not have become the player he became with us but he likely still would've become a very good player.

But the odds are still against picking a goalie and to a lesser extent a defenceman with a top pick. So generally speaking I'd rather we play the odds and go with a forward with those kinds of picks.

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05-19-2017, 09:13 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by habnatic View Post
Drafting goalies in the top 5 is incredibly dumb, even if we got an outstanding player by doing so. Most of the time there very difficult to project.

Not only that, but the difference between the very best goaltender and like a middle of the pack goalie is what?

Serge had a 93.1 this year, Price was 9.23.

With goalies with 60 games played or more the difference between Bobrovsky and Price .08. Equal to the difference between Price at 9.23 and Peter Budai at 9.15.

If I were a GM I would never, ever select a goalie in top 5. Even with PRice's outstanding hardware season there are alot of goalies posting sv% above .920. More than enough to win a cup with. Noone will win a cup with Danault centering the first line. Centers are much more difficult to find and the dropoff between Danault and any great number 1 center is going to dwarf the dropoff between Price and leave average goaltending.
The Luongo, Fleury's, and Price's were rare. Even Dipietro became an okay goalie before injuries ruined him. There's been no stand out goalies in the past decade that would warrant a very high draft pick. Guys like Bernier and Campbell were mistakes. Problem with goalies is they're 2 years behind skaters in development during draft years.

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05-19-2017, 09:25 PM
  #235
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I wasn't happy with the pick at the time, but I gave Timmins the benefit of the doubt and looking back it was a great pick. Kopitar might not have become the player he became with us but he likely still would've become a very good player.

But the odds are still against picking a goalie and to a lesser extent a defenceman with a top pick. So generally speaking I'd rather we play the odds and go with a forward with those kinds of picks.
It's the same with any pick though. In the top five you've got a good chance of at least getting a good player. Outside the top five it becomes more of a crap shoot. Thats what we see with most players. Here are the goalies who've been drafted top 5 since 80.

Luongo 4 x Vezina finalist 1 x Hart finalist 1 x Jennings
Barrasso 2 x Cup winner, 1 x Vezina, 1 x Jennings, Calder, 5 x Vezina finalist
DiPietro - Solid goalie with injury problems. Best puck handling goalie I've ever seen.
Price - 1 x Hart, Pearson & Jennings, 2 x Vezina finalist (so far)
Lehtonen - Solid goalie with some injury issues
Fleury - 1 x Cup winner (so far)

It's a pretty good list.

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05-19-2017, 09:30 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
It's the same with any pick though. In the top five you've got a good chance of at least getting a good player. Outside the top five it becomes more of a crap shoot. Thats what we see with most players. Here are the goalies who've been drafted top 5 since 80.

Luongo 4 x Vezina finalist 1 x Hart finalist 1 x Jennings
Barrasso 2 x Cup winner, 1 x Vezina, 1 x Jennings, Calder, 5 x Vezina finalist
DiPietro - Solid goalie with injury problems. Best puck handling goalie I've ever seen.
Price - 1 x Hart, Pearson & Jennings, 2 x Vezina finalist (so far)
Lehtonen - Solid goalie with some injury issues
Fleury - 1 x Cup winner (so far)

It's a pretty good list.
I agree, it's a good group of goalies. However, I would be very hesitant to use a top 5 pick on a goalie. The only way I would do it is if I'm certain the goalie is going to be good or at least a starter, or the skaters available aren't that good and the goalie comes with high regard.

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05-19-2017, 09:40 PM
  #237
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I agree, it's a good group of goalies. However, I would be very hesitant to use a top 5 pick on a goalie. The only way I would do it is if I'm certain the goalie is going to be good or at least a starter, or the skaters available aren't that good and the goalie comes with high regard.
LG literally just listed the last six goalies to be drafted in the top five and they all are relatively succesful. Took two of the worst injury riddled career to make Dipietro and Lehtonen average to good starters. Both of them were on their way to stardom before crapping the bed with injuries and depression.

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05-20-2017, 03:05 AM
  #238
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I don't want Price at 10 either. But he's the consensus best goalie in the game. And is pretty much universally well regarded: http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...ant-to-be-like

Lundqvist makes 8.5 so you can bet Price will get at least that. My hope is that it's 8.6 or something like that but it could be close to 10. If it is 10 it's not the end of the world though. "Overpaying" your star players by a million bucks is no big deal. Paying 6 mil for Thomas Plekanec is.
I completely agree that Habs must stop giving out the middle class contracts 4 to 5 mill when they can get get the same performance for 2.

But all teams know that. Therefore it is a constant.

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05-20-2017, 03:33 AM
  #239
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I'm not losing anything. I'm (rightly) pointing out to you that there's no such thing as the perfect information scenario you've proposed. Deloreans don't have flux capacitors in them and the Wings couldn't have known that no team would ever draft Datsyuk.

Moreover, it ignores the entire point here... they had no idea how good a player he was.
Okay, you're obviously unfamiliar with the way these things work. First, you start with the question what would you do if you had perfect information. Then you ask the question, what if I had a pretty good idea of what would go down, but there's some uncertainty. So, let's ask you an easier question. What would you rather have:

Datsyuk and a first, or Datsyuk and a sixth?

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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
I'm pretty sure I roasted Gainey earlier when I mentioned the ridiculous McDonnaugh trade. I don't know why he thought Gomez was the answer when Koivu was just as good, had been here forever and was cheaper.

Of course I would've traded Koivu before he left to Anaheim along with Souray for Bobby Ryan and draft picks. I said so at the time but that's a whole other story...

Unlike the Montreal Canadiens the LA Kings didn't sabotage themselves with an idiot coach and went out and got Carter and Gaborik to bolster the roster. In BOTH those seasons they went on to win cups. They built a great team over there and added to it. Meanwhile we've done everything we can here to shoot ourselves in the foot. How the hell do we wind up using Desharnais as our first line center? Why are we using Dannault now? These are unforced errors that have killed us. Meanwhile our GM has mostly sat on the sidelines and got ripped off on the only big trade he's made. Not a recipe for success.
Surely not using high picks on centers has nothing to do with it.

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As for Kopitar... solid player. But he's had seasons where he's struggled to reach 10 goals. There's no way that he's worth 10 million. And that's why he just might be available right now. I'm sure they're wondering about getting out from under that contract because it could be an albatross. From my standpoint, he's worth taking a risk on. We could try Galchenyuk and Beaulieu (cheaper younger options who would be wasted here anyway) and see if it works.
Gonna take more than a down season for L.A. to want to get rid of Kopitar.

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05-20-2017, 03:35 AM
  #240
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Tavares is a superstar. I would love to have him and yeah, I'd pay him 11. Overpaying him isn't a big deal if he produces. You're still probably looking at 9 for Price but that's no big deal. Pay your stars and fill in the lineup with bargains. MB's all about bargains anyway so...
There's a thing about goalies lg. and Dryden said it. 'I was a good goalie on a great team'.

In the po. A good goalie needs to make that one or two or three great saves. Unbelievable saves. That is what Dryden did in 71. Thomas in 12 etc.

Under huge pressure.

It is often not the best goalie in the world that does that. It is a very good one that responds in a massive way exactly when it is needed. When the entire team in front of him ****s up. Even the best team.

A great centre on the other hand must be great shift after shift for 4 series and produce.

Price was very good against rags this year. Lundqvist was better. It was like high noon of great goalies.

As for the goaltending beyond the first round it has been terrible. The shooters are dominating.

NHL is changing I think and nets will get bigger. Price at more than 8 will be a huge mistake.

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05-20-2017, 03:39 AM
  #241
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Time to trade the so-called "best goalie in the world" while we can still demand top dollar for him.
What would it take from the Jets minus scheifs and Laine. I know those are the big names but we have multiple pieces we could move for price without those two

Ehlers, little, helly and 13 overall? Too little?

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05-20-2017, 03:47 AM
  #242
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LG literally just listed the last six goalies to be drafted in the top five and they all are relatively succesful. Took two of the worst injury riddled career to make Dipietro and Lehtonen average to good starters. Both of them were on their way to stardom before crapping the bed with injuries and depression.
''Relatively successful'' has nothing to do with it. Are any of them night-and-day better than, say, Sergei Bobrovsky who was signed as a free-agent and later traded for a 2nd rounder?

This is a major pillar of the argument against using a top pick to select a goaltender. Even when you get a great player, they're not that much better that others who you could have acquired much more cheaply.

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05-20-2017, 03:48 AM
  #243
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What would it take from the Jets minus scheifs and Laine. I know those are the big names but we have multiple pieces we could move for price without those two

Ehlers, little, helly and 13 overall? Too little?
I would accept less. I would like to take Connor of the jets' hands, though, if you're in a generous mood.

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05-20-2017, 04:30 AM
  #244
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In the past 20 years here are the goalies picked with top-10 picks

Luongo (4)
Finley (6)
Dipietro (1)
Krahn (9)
Leclaire (8)
Blackburn (10)
Lehtonen (2)
Fleury (1)
Montoya (6)
Price(5)

Historically picking a goalie with a high pick hasn't worked out.

Kill shot. Price was a stupid pick and kopitar was there. Habs were desperate for centres and kopitar was fantastic for ten years and won two cups.

That is on on Timmins. Can we stop being such ******* and just admit how much Timmins and Habs ****ed up that year?

It's ok to admit it. Move on.

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05-20-2017, 04:44 AM
  #245
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
In the past 20 years here are the goalies picked with top-10 picks

Luongo (4)
Finley (6)
Dipietro (1)
Krahn (9)
Leclaire (8)
Blackburn (10)
Lehtonen (2)
Fleury (1)
Montoya (6)
Price(5)

Historically picking a goalie with a high pick hasn't worked out.

Kill shot. Price was a stupid pick and kopitar was there. Habs were desperate for centres and kopitar was fantastic for ten years and won two cups.

That is on on Timmins. Can we stop being such ******* and just admit how much Timmins and Habs ****ed up that year?

It's ok to admit it. Move on.

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05-20-2017, 04:49 AM
  #246
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It's the same with any pick though. In the top five you've got a good chance of at least getting a good player. Outside the top five it becomes more of a crap shoot. Thats what we see with most players. Here are the goalies who've been drafted top 5 since 80.

Luongo 4 x Vezina finalist 1 x Hart finalist 1 x Jennings
Barrasso 2 x Cup winner, 1 x Vezina, 1 x Jennings, Calder, 5 x Vezina finalist
DiPietro - Solid goalie with injury problems. Best puck handling goalie I've ever seen.
Price - 1 x Hart, Pearson & Jennings, 2 x Vezina finalist (so far)
Lehtonen - Solid goalie with some injury issues
Fleury - 1 x Cup winner (so far)

It's a pretty good list.
It's not though.

I can't find it right now but someone posted a graph of impact forwards relative to draft position and starting goaltenders relative to draft position. The two graphs were drastically different. The forwards were heavily biased towards the top 10 with very few being selected outside of the first round. The goaltenders, however, were more or less evenly spread out throughout the draft.

Opportunity cost. Is thing.

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05-20-2017, 08:27 AM
  #247
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It's the same with any pick though. In the top five you've got a good chance of at least getting a good player. Outside the top five it becomes more of a crap shoot. Thats what we see with most players. Here are the goalies who've been drafted top 5 since 80.

Luongo 4 x Vezina finalist 1 x Hart finalist 1 x Jennings
Barrasso 2 x Cup winner, 1 x Vezina, 1 x Jennings, Calder, 5 x Vezina finalist
DiPietro - Solid goalie with injury problems. Best puck handling goalie I've ever seen.
Price - 1 x Hart, Pearson & Jennings, 2 x Vezina finalist (so far)
Lehtonen - Solid goalie with some injury issues
Fleury - 1 x Cup winner (so far)

It's a pretty good list.
DiPietro, Lehtonen, Fleury are all extremely dissapointing. That's two 1st overalls and a 2nd overall. Most NHL goalies can win a cup when you've got guys like Crosby/Malkin in front of you.

We've had two top-5 picks in what the past 30+ years. If all you get is solid goalie from that pick it's a huge disappointment.

And it seems like you trying to make a distinction between 1-5 and 6-10. Do you really think that picking 1-5 is a good idea but 6-10 is a terrible idea?


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Kill shot. Price was a stupid pick and kopitar was there. Habs were desperate for centres and kopitar was fantastic for ten years and won two cups.

That is on on Timmins. Can we stop being such ******* and just admit how much Timmins and Habs ****ed up that year?

It's ok to admit it. Move on.
I think you misunderstood my post. Taking a goalie is very high risk, but it worked out for both the Price and Luongo picks. So it wasn't a mistake picking Price, it was however a pretty big gamble.

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05-20-2017, 09:18 AM
  #248
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There's a thing about goalies lg. and Dryden said it. 'I was a good goalie on a great team'.

In the po. A good goalie needs to make that one or two or three great saves. Unbelievable saves. That is what Dryden did in 71. Thomas in 12 etc.

Under huge pressure.

It is often not the best goalie in the world that does that. It is a very good one that responds in a massive way exactly when it is needed. When the entire team in front of him ****s up. Even the best team.

A great centre on the other hand must be great shift after shift for 4 series and produce.

Price was very good against rags this year. Lundqvist was better. It was like high noon of great goalies.

As for the goaltending beyond the first round it has been terrible. The shooters are dominating.

NHL is changing I think and nets will get bigger. Price at more than 8 will be a huge mistake.
Ken Dryden was always humble...always. He won 6 Cups in 8 yrs...he sat out one year, and the Habs lost in the first round...........When he retired, they lost in the first round without him, and pretty much the same team that just won 4 Cups in a row...

The Habs can't score goals these days.........has nothing to do with Price...in their 4 losses to the Rangers, they scored 4 goals...


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05-20-2017, 09:27 AM
  #249
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''Relatively successful'' has nothing to do with it. Are any of them night-and-day better than, say, Sergei Bobrovsky who was signed as a free-agent and later traded for a 2nd rounder?

This is a major pillar of the argument against using a top pick to select a goaltender. Even when you get a great player, they're not that much better that others who you could have acquired much more cheaply.
Price is miles better than Bobrovsky, and so was Luongo.

The same can be said about any picks. How many defenders picked in the top 5 are better than Subban amd Weber?

Most top 5 centers that succeed are actually number one picks. Sid, JT, Mackinnon, Mcdavid...

Tbh, I agree that we need to pick centers in the first round, and just overall. More offense.

The year we picked a freaking Hart winner might not be the year to call Timmins a loser though

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05-20-2017, 09:41 AM
  #250
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Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Price is miles better than Bobrovsky, and so was Luongo.

The same can be said about any picks. How many defenders picked in the top 5 are better than Subban amd Weber?

Most top 5 centers that succeed are actually number one picks. Sid, JT, Mackinnon, Mcdavid...

Tbh, I agree that we need to pick centers in the first round, and just overall. More offense.

The year we picked a freaking Hart winner might not be the year to call Timmins a loser though
"Price is miles better than Bobrovsky, and so was Luongo."

We'll have to disagree here.

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