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Predict: Who will Las Vegas take in Expansion draft

View Poll Results: WHO
Gaunce 68 51.13%
Sbisa 35 26.32%
Rodin 10 7.52%
Biega 1 0.75%
Bachmann 1 0.75%
Boucher 13 9.77%
Grenier 0 0%
Pedan 0 0%
Dorset 3 2.26%
OTHER 2 1.50%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-19-2017, 12:53 PM
  #51
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeromemorrow View Post
Great thought and analysis put into this as usual @Y2k.

I like the team especially w the cap flexibility. However, with 16m cap space... why not take Neal over Colin Wilson?... I kinda like Weal over Raffl too but it's pretty even.. Raffl is a more established NHLer but I like Weal's upside.

Also, kinda agree with some other posters here .. with picking Ryan Miller over MAF... there's good players to pick from PIT vs an inconsistent and expensive goalie such as MAF... Miller + Raanta is good enough already.

I like Schmidt as well... versus taking Grubauer from WAS.

This team is prolly better than ours already unfortunately... guess it comes down to how fast VGK gels together as a team.

Agree with your thinking on not taking Methot due to the quality of other younger RHS dmen + Bobby Ryan being available.
Thanks.

I see Neal as hitting the downside of his career. With a higher cap hit, and 2 years older than Wilson, I decided to go with the younger player in this case. Though certainly a valid point.

With Raffl/Weal, I simply overlooked Weal to be honest. He does grade out as someone with high potential so he may be a better pick. I liked Raffl because he's fairly established and generates a lot of scoring chances, but I'd be good with a change there.

I absolutely would not take Miller over MAF. As an expansion team that's pieced together this team is likely going to struggle almost no matter what. They need that quality goaltender to be the backbone of their team and keep them out of the basement (unless that's what they want). Miller will be 37, and is a UFA. Fleury is 32, under contract, and still at the top of his game. There wasn't really anyone else on the Penguins exposed list who would tempt me over Fleury. In previous projected lists Schultz was listed as available and that would certainly tempt me. But Bryan Rust, Ian Cole, or Scott Wilson don't tempt me over a proven 1G who's still arguably in his prime.

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Old
06-19-2017, 12:53 PM
  #52
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m9 View Post
These arranged deals that haven't been announced certainly take the fun out of mocking out their roster, it ends up being a bit of a waste.
To an extent. I decided to make a mock roster and compare it to what Vegas ends up with. Gives one a baseline to judge the team McPhee puts together.

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06-19-2017, 01:01 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
To an extent. I decided to make a mock roster and compare it to what Vegas ends up with. Gives one a baseline to judge the team McPhee puts together.
Right, but because there are pre-assigned deals in place it's not a direct comparison. Many teams would have made additional trades instead of leaving players unprotected.

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06-19-2017, 01:03 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m9 View Post
Right, but because there are pre-assigned deals in place it's not a direct comparison. Many teams would have made additional trades instead of leaving players unprotected.
Tough to say. You're right, it is frustrating that they're waiting to announce those deals. But this is the best comparison we can make based on the information available to us. I fully expect Vatanen to not be available. Probably same for Dumba too (due to a side deal). But we can then see if those side deals make Vegas better or not.

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06-19-2017, 01:06 PM
  #55
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If I was Vegas GM I would scout HFboards and see which player each respective fan base was most scared of losing.

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06-19-2017, 01:16 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryp37 View Post
They're definitely not taking Sbisa, lot of good D available even after some protection deals.

Methot, Vatanen, Demers, Dumba, Scandella, Schlemko, McNabb, Van Riemsdyk, Dotchin, Miller
It's possible half of those are off the table because of side deals. Gaunce is probably the most likely choice though.

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06-19-2017, 01:21 PM
  #57
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I don't think I would make any side deals if I were Vegas, or my asking price would be absurd. Don't want to lose vatanen? Okay, 5 first rounders please.

Vegas has an enormous amount of leverage right now.

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06-19-2017, 01:21 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giraffe Sandwich View Post
I don't think I would make any side deals of I were Vegas, or my asking price would be absurd. Don't want to lose vatanen? Okay, 5 first rounders please.
That Mike Gillis style thinking would probably come back to bite you in the old boys club network of GMs...

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06-19-2017, 01:29 PM
  #59
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Sbisa only because I'm trying to will it into action. Realistically I think Gaunce is gone.

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06-19-2017, 01:33 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by vancityluongo View Post
That Mike Gillis style thinking would probably come back to bite you in the old boys club network of GMs...
Meh.

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06-19-2017, 01:40 PM
  #61
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Dorset

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06-19-2017, 01:41 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Thanks.

I see Neal as hitting the downside of his career. With a higher cap hit, and 2 years older than Wilson, I decided to go with the younger player in this case. Though certainly a valid point.

With Raffl/Weal, I simply overlooked Weal to be honest. He does grade out as someone with high potential so he may be a better pick. I liked Raffl because he's fairly established and generates a lot of scoring chances, but I'd be good with a change there.

I absolutely would not take Miller over MAF. As an expansion team that's pieced together this team is likely going to struggle almost no matter what. They need that quality goaltender to be the backbone of their team and keep them out of the basement (unless that's what they want). Miller will be 37, and is a UFA. Fleury is 32, under contract, and still at the top of his game. There wasn't really anyone else on the Penguins exposed list who would tempt me over Fleury. In previous projected lists Schultz was listed as available and that would certainly tempt me. But Bryan Rust, Ian Cole, or Scott Wilson don't tempt me over a proven 1G who's still arguably in his prime.
Is Marko Dano in CBJ / WPG? I forget.. who did you take from CBJ? I kinda like Scott Harrington from their list too... solid upside + stable dman.

Yeah and I looked at PIT's list.. it's pretty meh... How about Kuhnackel? Or Mike Gillis' past favorite, Derrick Pouliot?

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06-19-2017, 01:52 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dissonance View Post
Only catch is they'd actually have to convince Miller to sign there, though that doesn't seem impossible given Las Vegas' proximity to Los Angeles, where his wife's career is centered.
I think Vegas is the one thing that may prevent a return to Vancouver, frankly. It's a lot closer for him, taxes are lower, and it isn't the mess that the Canucks currently are.

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06-19-2017, 01:58 PM
  #64
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Gaunce and Boucher are 5 & 1/2 months apart in age.

Both have proven they can produce in the AHL

Logically Boucher fits the profile.

Boucher = 112GP 17G 20a
Gaunce = 77GP 1G 5A

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06-19-2017, 02:13 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyBare View Post
Gaunce and Boucher are 5 & 1/2 months apart in age.

Both have proven they can produce in the AHL

Logically Boucher fits the profile.

Boucher = 112GP 17G 20a
Gaunce = 77GP 1G 5A
Except Gaunce can play defense.

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06-19-2017, 02:13 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Giraffe Sandwich View Post
Except Gaunce can play defense.

And not score to save his life.

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06-19-2017, 02:13 PM
  #67
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Sigh.

Reid Boucher

Less than 12 minutes of ice time.
18 games, 2 points.

Brendan Gaunce

49 games, 5 points

I too am disappointed Gaunce didn't score in the 8 games he actually played. It's not evidence that he can't score to save his life.

Why is it so ****ing hard to grasp that there is a correlation between playing time and production. This is not controversial in any other sport.


Last edited by Giraffe Sandwich: 06-19-2017 at 02:24 PM.
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06-19-2017, 02:16 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giraffe Sandwich View Post
I don't think I would make any side deals if I were Vegas, or my asking price would be absurd. Don't want to lose vatanen? Okay, 5 first rounders please.

Vegas has an enormous amount of leverage right now.
That's just as bad as being a nice guy. Personally I'd be trying to squeeze as much juice as I can out of the draft. Let Anaheim trade you a pick/prospect to protect Vatanen. Take Manson and enjoy the fact that Manson + asset > Vatanen.

Do the same with the Isles and De Haan/Nelson

Minny and Dumba/Scandella

Etc.

I agree with you halfway though, I'd be reluctant to take deals that allow those teams to protect multiple players.

My Vegas > your Vegas(no one will give you multiple 1sts)

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06-19-2017, 02:19 PM
  #69
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Depends on what their needs are after selecting everyone else and their trading frenzy...


If they need a play now Dman - Sbisa
If they need a plug dman - Biega
If they need no one from us but need to select someone because rules - Gaunce.

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06-19-2017, 02:21 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cancuks View Post
Where are all the Vegas mock draft threads on the main board? Is there a reliable expansion draft roster builder out there? TSN's is crap and has wrong players listed, missing players and players with the wrong teams. Cap geek's doesn't think the protection lists have been made available and is still stuck in "quick pick" mode.
Just looking at Craig Button's list on TSN made me laugh. Half of his players are garbage (Jack Skille WTF??) and pending UFAs. I don't even think he made a selection from some teams and his cap is way below the floor.
https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

You might want to go in and make sure the protected lists are right before drafting hte team though.

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06-19-2017, 02:43 PM
  #71
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They'd have to have a buffoon of a GM to take Sbisa or Dorsett or any of those terrible contracts. With the quality of defense available there is no reason to do it....they can take 8 top 4 quality defense who aren't on terrible contracts if they want to. I think if anything, they see nobody they actually want on the Canucks, and take a guy who's cheap, young and can help their AHL team who they won't lose sleep over if they lose them to waivers. Since the centre calibre out there is easily the weakest, Gaunce is probably most likely as opposed to a Boucher or Biega.

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06-19-2017, 03:10 PM
  #72
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The only question is whether Vegas is willing to burn a RFA spot on Gaunce or Boucher. As noted, they can take 10 players without contracts, so one of our guys would have to be in the top-ten RFA options. Otherwise, I think they'd go Biega over Sbisa, who flat out sucks.

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06-19-2017, 03:22 PM
  #73
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I said it before and have for a few months... its going to be Sbisa...

Its really not that hard to predict, just like the protected list came out as expected (after the TDL). There's no surprise that both Gaunce and Sbisa are exposed (nor Sutter being protected) nor should there be any reason for Sbisa to not get picked.

Gaunce is a good player but lets be honest, almost every team has an expose forward similar to Gaunce and a few teams reportedly already made deals with Vegas to protect their Ds or forwards (while protecting extra Ds).

That to me is a clear sign that teams are trying to keep any worthwhile D, which lowers the number of D options for Vegas. I can't imagine after all the deals that there are 9 D "better" than Sbisa that Vegas can pick. Add to that, they will more likely draft the min 14 forwards than the min 9 D since NHL D has more value than Fs. That's one of the reason for all the Tanev rumors recently... everyone wants D and their value right now are inflated.

Also contract status likely also means Sbisa is gone over Gaunce...

#1 Vegas needs to draft 20 players under contract next season (Sbisa is under contract, Gaunce isn't).

#2 Vegas needs to draft at least 60% of last season's cap hit during the draft... Sbisa's cap hit isn't really a negative and might help Vegas get to that 60% mark (since a lot of good young players are actually cheap, Vegas likely needs to add some cap hit unless they take quite a few cap dumps like Chicago's rumor deal with them).

#3 Vegas has already said they want to build via the draft and are clearly following that model with the rumor deals already in place (draft picks/prospects to protect players). If Vegas wants to follow that model, at the deadline next year, Sbisa is likely to have much more value than Gaunce... in another word, Sbisa is worth more draft capital going forward than Gaunce (in the near future at least).

I'll be shocked if Sbisa is still with us after the expansion draft. Given the situation, that's probably not the worst thing (tho Sbisa having a decent year last year makes this sting a little more). The good news is we're likely to keep Gaunce who, if we're lucky, will be a cheap 3rd line C for us going forward.

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06-19-2017, 03:42 PM
  #74
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeromemorrow View Post
Is Marko Dano in CBJ / WPG? I forget.. who did you take from CBJ? I kinda like Scott Harrington from their list too... solid upside + stable dman.

Yeah and I looked at PIT's list.. it's pretty meh... How about Kuhnackel? Or Mike Gillis' past favorite, Derrick Pouliot?
Dano is from Winnipeg.

From CBJ I took Josh Anderson. A promising young winger.

I'd just stick with Fleury from Pittsburgh. Having a good goalie is valuable.

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06-19-2017, 04:30 PM
  #75
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if i understand it, rfa players that vegas signs during the window do not count towards their rfa limit.

that being the case, i predict biega or sbisa with an outside chance of boucher or dorsett. i think they are going to want to draft depth on d to get through a tough year and give them tdl trade options for the better d guys they will grab. i'd personally take biega because he is a cheap useful energy depth guy and can likely clear waivers in a pinch, but sbisa does have the size and tools and has shown he can be deployed as an ersatz top 4 dman on a bad team and he is also one and done on that salary. they might draft him to have someone to play after the tdl.

boucher might sign and they might want him for goal scoring. they might also take dorsett to wear an "a" if they think he's healthy.

i don't think they'll use an unsigned rfa slot on gaunce, and i don't think gaunce will want to sign with vegas. i also think his lack of proven offence will scare them off and they will have a ton of low scoring players to choose from.

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