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Who do you want to face in the first round?

View Poll Results: Who do you want to face in the first round?
Boston 84 53.85%
Carolina 3 1.92%
Ottawa 12 7.69%
Washington 12 7.69%
Philadelphia 45 28.85%
Voters: 156. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-31-2008, 10:27 AM
  #76
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For some reason im not too worried about Huet.

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Old
03-31-2008, 10:28 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by HarryI View Post
Nope, not scared at all. Our shooters knows Huet's weakness (like all of us...shoot from the point basically) and we are better in any other aspect of the game. Yes they do have Ovechkin, but the guy won't win 4 games of 7 against us. I say we win easily in 5.
Hamrlik , Markov and Komi (if back) can shutdown him.

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Old
03-31-2008, 10:31 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by natey2k4 View Post
I never said the Habs don't have a good team. I'm one of the few that thought we had a playoff team from the get go..

I also think we have a team that is a lot better than Washington's.

Our forward core > Washington.
Goaltending is a wash.. it's equal.
Defense, we have a better core because of experience.

However, one game-breaker like Ovechkin can change the course of a game at any time. And he's proved that recently.

Also, Washington with a #1 goalie at the start of the year would be fighting for first in the conference, IMO. When you have a goaltender battle between Kolzig who has been on the decline for 2-3 years and Brent Johnson who is a decent backup on a mediocre team.. you have a problem.

I just think that people are underrating the Caps because they weren't a good team for most of the season (which had a lot to do with terrible goaltending).

ADD: This is without talking about Nylander missing half the season and the fact that they have the premiere shutdown centre in the league now.
WE HAVE A GAME BREAKER LINE WHICH THEY CAN'T SHUT DOWN. Geez...Ovechkin needed to score 4 goals in a game to beat us in OVERTIME. We dominated 3 of the 4 games this season. The guy can be stopped and we can dominate them with our PP and balanced attack. You talk like they are the best in the East and we are the 8th seed. I don't think any of their players can shut down our top line and if Koivu is ready he is a monster in the playoffs and will make our 2nd line even better, add that to the best PP in the league and you have total domination. Habs in 5 or 6.

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Old
03-31-2008, 10:43 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by HarryI View Post
WE HAVE A GAME BREAKER LINE WHICH THEY CAN'T SHUT DOWN. Geez...Ovechkin needed to score 4 goals in a game to beat us in OVERTIME. We dominated 3 of the 4 games this season. The guy can be stopped and we can dominate them with our PP and balanced attack. You talk like they are the best in the East and we are the 8th seed. I don't think any of their players can shut down our top line and if Koivu is ready he is a monster in the playoffs and will make our 2nd line even better, add that to the best PP in the league and you have total domination. Habs in 5 or 6.
Yeah.. but now that Caps have more working lines.

Fedorov has really added something to the 2nd/3rd lines.

Brooks Laich is playing like the player everyone knew he could be.

They now have a #1 goalie.

Montreal is a better team, IMO, but to say that Ovechkin (w/ a good team) can't beat us.. is false hope.

ADDED: Since adding Fedorov (more complete team) and a #1 goalie (Finally) ..

In 15 Games;

50 goals for 3.34 g/g
27 goals against for 1.8 ga/g

They are a +23 since gaining Fedorov and Huet!!

This is a real team now (Ovechkin counts as like 2 full players, but ).

I just can't see teams running all over the Capitals. Plus Huet would likely play over his head against us.

I'm not scared to play the Caps.. because I believe we can beat anyone.. but I'm not excited to play them.. and think people here are underrating them.


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Old
03-31-2008, 10:50 AM
  #80
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Look at their D:

Greene (really good) then it gets 'ordinary' very fast...

T.Poti
J.Schultz
B.Pothier
S.Morrisonn
J.Erskine
M.Jurcina

And as for Huet, he's good yes but we all know that when you shoot high on him it's the recipe for success.

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:05 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by NHLcrazy View Post
Look at their D:

Greene (really good) then it gets 'ordinary' very fast...

T.Poti
J.Schultz
B.Pothier
S.Morrisonn
J.Erskine
M.Jurcina

And as for Huet, he's good yes but we all know that when you shoot high on him it's the recipe for success.
I think you're still underrating Washington's defense.

Jeff Schultz is a very, very good two-way defenseman. He can throw up a point when needed, but he is very, very reliable. His +17 shows that.

Jurcina is like a lot like Mike Komisarek. He loves to hit and throws himself in front of pucks.

Shaone Morrison is no worse the Josh Gorges.

Mike Green is disgustingly good.

Tom Poti isn't anything special.. but he's a good player who gets in front of shots a lot. He can put up some PTS too.

Erskine is an adequate #6.. though if Brian Pothier comes back, the team just better and better.

Also, people speak of our secondary scoring.. The Caps have it too.

8 players over 35 pts and 4 over 50 and 1 over 100. They'd have more 50 guys if Semin or Nylander were playing the way they could or not hurt, respectively.

Ovechkin - Backstrom - Kozlov
Laich - Nydlander - Semin
Clark - Fedorov - Fleischmann
Cooke - Gordon - Steckel/Bradley

That looks like a solid team to me, as long as they are healthy.

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:13 AM
  #82
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Although almost impossible for us to face them, I would love to watch that series. I like to watch Ovie play against any team....even the habs.

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:15 AM
  #83
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Although almost impossible for us to face them, I would love to watch that series. I like to watch Ovie play against any team....even the habs.
No one read that reply where I pointed out why I think Washington is our most likely opponent, did they?

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03-31-2008, 11:15 AM
  #84
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If we want to be Stanley Cup champions, we have to beat the best team at a momment or another.

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:24 AM
  #85
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No one read that reply where I pointed out why I think Washington is our most likely opponent, did they?
No they are not. They're closer to the 3rd seed than the 8th spot. They'd be going at it against the 6th and even if they make it to the 8th, it is unlikely they make it to the 7th, with the Habs likely to finish 2nd....

Your assertion is based on Was finishing 8th and Montreal 1st... which is not the most likely.

tomorrow night, the Caps go up against the Canes... they have the same number of games remaining with 2 points difference. If the Caps lose this one in regulation, they are highly likely to miss the playoffs, if they win in regulation, they are tied for the divisional title with Carolina, making them a shot at the 3rd seed...


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Old
03-31-2008, 11:31 AM
  #86
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No they are not. They're closer to the 3rd seed than the 8th spot. They'd be going at it against the 6th and even if they make it to the 8th, it is unlikely they make it to the 7th, with the Habs likely to finish 2nd....

Your assertion is based on Was finishing 8th and Montreal 1st... which is not the most likely.
My assertion is that Washington will finish 7th and Montreal 2nd, actually.

Pittsburgh I give the edge due to the fact they control their destiny.

Washington will not catch Carolina. Carolina holds the tiebreaker, so even if Washington beats them, their schedule is Florida and Tampa Bay. Odds are, they keep their spot, especially since they're the hottest team in hockey since the All-Star Break.

If Washington wins out (which is a distinct possibility since they also have the Florida twins), they have 94 points. The odds of them passing Philadelphia (who would need 95 points, since they lose the tie breaker) are good, since Philly has a nightmare schedule. Same goes for Boston.

I mean, its impossible to predict still, but if every team wins the games they "should win", Washington finishes 7th.

Thus, 7th.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
tomorrow night, the Caps go up against the Canes... they have the same number of games remaining with 2 points difference. If the Caps lose this one in regulation, they are highly likely to miss the playoffs, if they win in regulation, they are tied for the divisional title with Carolina, making them a shot at the 3rd seed...
Completely not true, if Washington wins they're tied and have identical schedules down the stretch. Both play Tampa, both play Florida. Thus, both are likely to win out. Carolina holds the tiebreaker with Washington, thus we stand a decent chance of playing Washington.

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:40 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Le Tricolore View Post
Price > Huet.


The Canadiens are better in every aspect. The only thing Washington has that could hurt us is Ovechkin. He won't win 4 games out of 7 by himself.
price vs washington < huet vs montreal .

ovechinkin vs kovalev
semin vs a.kos
backstrom vs koivu
fedorov vs laps, smolinski
laich vs lats
green vs streit

we still have a lot of players like plekanec, markov, hamrlik , higgins but I'm just saying...they are not the team they used to be...

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:43 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
My assertion is that Washington will finish 7th and Montreal 2nd, actually.

Pittsburgh I give the edge due to the fact they control their destiny.

Washington will not catch Carolina. Carolina holds the tiebreaker, so even if Washington beats them, their schedule is Florida and Tampa Bay. Odds are, they keep their spot, especially since they're the hottest team in hockey since the All-Star Break.

If Washington wins out (which is a distinct possibility since they also have the Florida twins), they have 94 points. The odds of them passing Philadelphia (who would need 95 points, since they lose the tie breaker) are good, since Philly has a nightmare schedule. Same goes for Boston.

Thus, 7th.
Here's a big dent in your theory. Washington is 3 points back of both Philly and Boston.. for them to gain 7th place, they'd need both teams to go under 1-1-1 AND the Caps would have to win ALL three remaining games, which is highly unlikely (all those circumstances), hence, not 7th but 8th, against Pittsburg, something the NHL likely wants too. Ovy vs Crosby in the playoffs. Another point, you talk about how the Canes are hot since the All-star break... have you checked Washington's stats since the trade deadline?? Your theory has more holes than a swiss cheese.

You're putting too much weight on the schedule. Go check both Was and Car's stats against TB and Flo... they can both lose to those teams. As for Bos and Phi, you are exagerating... I think you WANT to go up against Was, but it's NOT the most likely. Boston goes up against Ott (which they have beaten twice in the last two matchups, both scores 4-0), against the Devils (with whom they always have a fair matchup) and against Buffalo (who are most likely off the playoff picture, making the Bruins the most hungry for that game)... As for Philly, they are the most likely to fail, quite more so than Boston.

Get this, you are saying Carolina won't be matched, yet Was is in a precarious position, 3 points back of both 7th and 8th seed... If they don't get points tomorrow night against CAROLINA, this means they are 3 points back but with only 4 remaining available points, which would make them highly unlikely to surpass Boston as the Bruins are likely to win at least a game on their last remaining 3.

On the other hand, if the Caps win tomorrow, they are tied, or 1 point behind Carolina, which would leave much more possibility to get the 3rd than the 7th, as I think Boston is highly likely to win 2 of its last 3.

They are very unlikely to take the 7th seed... you are presuming way too much for that to occur, especially concerning Boston.

Let's come back here in a week and see who is right...


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Old
03-31-2008, 11:50 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Same goes for Boston.
Boston's schedule isn't that nightmarish though...a struggling NJ team, then they get Ottawa playing a 2nd game in 2 nights, with Ottawa likely having clinched a playoff spot and maybe resting some guys, and then likely eliminated Buffalo, in Boston to finish it.

I also wouldn't bet everything on CAR and WSH sweeping the Florida twins without a doubt...both TB and FLA could view those games as their Stanley Cup. TB just beat Carolina and almost beat Washington this week. Remember Atlanta 2 years ago losing in Washington? Washington has won something crazy like 8 out of 9, can they really go 11-1 in the final 12 games?

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:53 AM
  #90
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Based on schedule, I like Washingtons chances.


Washington (88pts) schedule:

April 1: Hurricanes at Washington
April 3: Lightning at Washington
April 5: Florida at Washington

Philly (91 pts) schedule:
April 2: Flyers at Penguins
April 4: Devils at Flyers
April 6: Penguins at Flyers

Boston (91 tps) schedule:

April 2: Bruins at Devils
April 4: Bruins at Ottawa
April 5: Sabres at Bruins

Rangers (91 pts) schedule:


April 3: Rangers at Islanders
April 4: Islanders at Rangers
APril 6: Rabngers at Devils

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:57 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by ti-vite View Post
Based on schedule, I like Washingtons chances.


Washington (88pts) schedule:

April 1: Hurricanes at Washington
April 3: Lightning at Washington
April 5: Florida at Washington

Philly (91 pts) schedule:
April 2: Flyers at Penguins
April 4: Devils at Flyers
April 6: Penguins at Flyers

Boston (91 tps) schedule:

April 2: Bruins at Devils
April 4: Bruins at Ottawa
April 5: Sabres at Bruins

Rangers (91 pts) schedule:


April 3: Rangers at Islanders
April 4: Islanders at Rangers
APril 6: Rabngers at Devils
The Rangers have FOUR games remaining, one being TONIGHT against Pittsburg.

And Boston can likely win 2 of those 3 games... have you forgotten that they have beaten Ottawa 4-0 twice in the last two matchups and that Buffalo is likely out of the picture, making Boston the most eager to win that matchup?

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:58 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Boston's schedule isn't that nightmarish though...a struggling NJ team, then they get Ottawa playing a 2nd game in 2 nights, with Ottawa likely having clinched a playoff spot and maybe resting some guys, and then likely eliminated Buffalo, in Boston to finish it.

I also wouldn't bet everything on CAR and WSH sweeping the Florida twins without a doubt...both TB and FLA could view those games as their Stanley Cup. TB just beat Carolina and almost beat Washington this week. Remember Atlanta 2 years ago losing in Washington? Washington has won something crazy like 8 out of 9, can they really go 11-1 in the final 12 games?
My point exactly Marc. Thanks.

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Old
03-31-2008, 11:59 AM
  #93
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Here's a big dent in your theory. Washington is 3 points back of both Philly and Boston..
I was going to say something to that effect as well.

To the OP:

Washington is playing really well these days - like a desperate team should. But despite this, they're still on the outside looking in and time is getting really short.

I doubt they make the playoffs - they'll need some real help to overcome that 3pt deficit with 3 games to go. Possible, but low probability.

All this to say that no, I'm not worried. There's no need to be considering we're not even certain of Montreal's final position - plus if Washington made it in, I have confidence that the Habs can take them.

If any team should be worried, it's the team that will have to face the Habs in the playoffs and not the other way around. Not to say the Habs will have a cakewalk in any way, but they definitely showed things to warrant that fear in other teams.

Let's "worry" (and by "worry", I mean "think") about the Habs playoff opposition when we find out who it will be. No need to fret until then (unless you want to worry about the Habs potential injury woes, but that's another story).

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Old
03-31-2008, 12:13 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ti-vite View Post
Based on schedule, I like Washingtons chances.


Washington (88pts) schedule:

April 1: Hurricanes at Washington
April 3: Lightning at Washington
April 5: Florida at Washington

Philly (91 pts) schedule:
April 2: Flyers at Penguins
April 4: Devils at Flyers
April 6: Penguins at Flyers

Boston (91 tps) schedule:

April 2: Bruins at Devils
April 4: Bruins at Ottawa
April 5: Sabres at Bruins

Rangers (91 pts) schedule:


April 3: Rangers at Islanders
April 4: Islanders at Rangers
APril 6: Rabngers at Devils
You forgot to add Ottawa.

If the Caps finish 2-1, and Ottawa 0-3.. Caps make the playoffs. If Caps finish 3-0 and the Sens 1-2, the Caps make the playoffs.

The Caps have an a pretty easy schedule, aside from Carolina. The Lightning are Mike Smithless and the Panthers are.. eh.

The Sens play the Habs, The Leafs, and the Bruins.

They have losing a losing record against the Leafs.
They are 4-3 versus the Bruins.
And they are 5-2 against us..

However, since the the new year (January) the Sens have a combined record against these three teams of just 3-8.

I think the Sens have a SERIOUS chance at falling right out of the Playoffs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Then they get Ottawa playing a 2nd game in 2 nights, with Ottawa likely having clinched a playoff spot.
How likely is is that the Sens have clinched a playoff spot?

If Washington lost both their games? Yeah, then it's likely. But even if the Sens go 1-1.. the Caps could go 0-2 and it comes down Boston vs the Sens for a playoff spot for the Sens.

The Caps own the tie-break against Ottawa (they are 4-0 against the Sens).

If the Caps win and the Sens lose tomorrow.. the Caps are just 2 PTS back .. and own the tie-breaker.

I think the Sens could very easily go 1-2 or 0-3 (or 0-1-2) or something down the stretch. They need 3 pts to clinch a playoff spot.. And they have the odds against them (3-8 record against their remaining opponents since the new year and their struggles).

Now that I've noticed (thanks to you) that they have 2 games in 2 nights.. I can see the Sens fall out of the playoffs even more. I'm calling a Bruins and Leafs win over the Sens.. and we'll see what the Habs can do.


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Old
03-31-2008, 12:16 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by natey2k4 View Post
Not true.

Boston could finish 1-2 (93 PTS)

Washington could finish 2-0-1 (93 PTS) and still make it.

If Washington loses a game, they are pretty screwed.. but it's still not impossible.

There are FIVE teams that Washington could catch.

Ottawa, Carolina, Boston, Philly, and the Rangers.

There is a decent possibility that one of those teams could finish out the season getting 2 pts or less.

If Ottawa goes 0-3, Washington could finish 2-1 and they'd make the playoffs. The Sens go 1-2, Washington goes 3-0.. the Caps are in.

Washington's best chance in Ottawa, IMO.. but I could easily see them closing out the season with 3 wins .. so it's up to the Competition.

You have to remember, a lot of those teams play each other too. Washington players Carolina. The Bruins play the Sens. Philly plays the Rangers.
just to clarify, a loss isnt an OT loss. Because OT loss has the word loss in it, doesn't mean they are the same thing.

so if washington losses 1 game 2-1, and boston only wins 1, 1-2 washington is eliminated

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03-31-2008, 01:24 PM
  #96
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How likely is is that the Sens have clinched a playoff spot?
They have 92 points. Capitals maximum is 94 and like you said Caps have the tie-breakers on OTT. So they only need 3 points to clinch against the Habs ''B'' team and Toronto, even if Washington wins both games on Tuesday/Thursday. Sure the Sens have been a .500 team since their insane 15-2 start, but I have no doubt that they will wake up a bit and pick up their game with their playoffs lives on the line. If it doesn't happen, then they should just blow that whole team up because they would be a true joke of a team.

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Old
03-31-2008, 01:52 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
My assertion is that Washington will finish 7th and Montreal 2nd, actually.

Pittsburgh I give the edge due to the fact they control their destiny.

Washington will not catch Carolina. Carolina holds the tiebreaker, so even if Washington beats them, their schedule is Florida and Tampa Bay. Odds are, they keep their spot, especially since they're the hottest team in hockey since the All-Star Break.

If Washington wins out (which is a distinct possibility since they also have the Florida twins), they have 94 points. The odds of them passing Philadelphia (who would need 95 points, since they lose the tie breaker) are good, since Philly has a nightmare schedule. Same goes for Boston.

I mean, its impossible to predict still, but if every team wins the games they "should win", Washington finishes 7th.

Thus, 7th.
Your stats don't make sense. The problem is that you're assuming the most likely overall result is that the "most likely" result will occur in a whole bunch of different games. It's faulty reasoning. You're picking a winner from a dozen or so different games and then saying that if all the teams that "should" win win then Washington will finish 7th. If you could say that with any certainty you'd bankrupt the sports lottery companies.

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03-31-2008, 02:14 PM
  #98
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Hey guys, valid arguments all around, but just to be clear, I'll requote my theory from page one:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Washington loses the tie breaker against Carolina. Assume a victory in their head to head, it still means Carolina needs to lose to one of Florida and Tampa and Carolina has the best NHL record since the all-star break.

It is worth noting, that Washington holds the first tie breaker against everyone they can catch, besides Carolina and New Jersey.

If Washington sweeps out they land at 94 points.

Philly would need 95 to stay a head, which is 4 points in 3 games (Schedule: Pittsburgh, NJ, Pittsburgh). I doubt they get it.

Boston would need 95 to stay a head, which is 4 points in 3 games (Schedule: Ottawa, Buffalo, New Jersey). I doubt they do it either.

New York Rangers also need 95 points to stead a head, which is 4 points in 4 games (Schedule: Penguins, Isles, Isles, Devils). They're likely safe.

The Senators need 3 points in 3 games, so they're by no means safe either (Schedule: Montreal, Toronto, Boston).

Finally, the Devils only need 1 point (Schedule: Islanders, Boston, Philly, Rangers) and have 4 games.

If everything happens as it "should" and Washington wins out, they finish 7th. Montreal 2nd.

Just saying.
Also:
Quote:
Originally Posted by starglider View Post
Your stats don't make sense. The problem is that you're assuming the most likely overall result is that the "most likely" result will occur in a whole bunch of different games. It's faulty reasoning. You're picking a winner from a dozen or so different games and then saying that if all the teams that "should" win win then Washington will finish 7th. If you could say that with any certainty you'd bankrupt the sports lottery companies.

Well yes, but we're trying to predict the future here. I am not saying "we're definitely playing Washington". I just think that to be one of the more likely scenarios and explained why it is not next to impossible as some posters are claiming.

Clearly, none of us has any idea what is going to happen! =) I mean, mathematically, Montreal could finish 5th and Washington 4th, lol.

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03-31-2008, 02:22 PM
  #99
le_sean
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Originally Posted by natey2k4 View Post
8 players over 35 pts and 4 over 50 and 1 over 100. They'd have more 50 guys if Semin or Nylander were playing the way they could or not hurt, respectively.
I'm sorry this is the worst argument ever. If Saku played the way he did last year he'd be at a PPG and if Ryder played the way he always does he'd have 30 goals. The NHL isn't based on "ifs". Semin sucks this year and Nylander is hurt, end of discussion.

You are vastly overrating this one man team.

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03-31-2008, 02:31 PM
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Ozymandias
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Hey guys, valid arguments all around, but just to be clear, I'll requote my theory from page one:



Also:



Well yes, but we're trying to predict the future here. I am not saying "we're definitely playing Washington". I just think that to be one of the more likely scenarios and explained why it is not next to impossible as some posters are claiming.

Clearly, none of us has any idea what is going to happen! =) I mean, mathematically, Montreal could finish 5th and Washington 4th, lol.

No one said it was impossible, but it's not the most likely like you implied.

For your claim to be true (the most likely), Washington wouldn't have to win ALL THREE games. It's a big stretch to say most likely and base it on a perfect record.

If Washington loses just ONE game in regulation, it takes only ONE victory by Boston or Philly or Ottawa (an OT or SO loss in their case) or New York for one of those teams to be sure to finish ahead of Washington.

Now that's just for the 8th spot... for the 7th spot, the Caps would have to be perfect and two of those four teams would have to lose twice.

And when I tell you they are more likely to get to the 3rd spot, you tell me Carolina will make it, yet they have a matchup against them, meaning per your theory of Was winning all three games, Carolina would have to lose one and then be perfect... all based on perfectness by both the Caps and the Canes...

That's a long way from being most likely.

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