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Tyler Wright: The days of leaving kids in the AHL for extended periods is over

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Old
06-30-2017, 07:32 PM
  #101
HockeyinHD
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Originally Posted by Bruce Joker View Post
He also has the 2nd most ice time on the team. Maybe 3rd if datsyuk played 82. Same with 5 on 5
When you play in all three phases, that's going to happen often. Are we now going to use his then-durability and 200-foot game against him?

Seriously, if he plays 76+ games, on all three units, and is in the top 3 in total IT, and scores 18-22... he earns the deal. I mean, come on. That's now he got the deal in the first place: by doing that while mostly on a line with Z (who is not an elite centerman, full stop) and assorted other forwards.

If he gags around and scores a dozen, misses a bunch of time, or loses his spot either at ES or on the PP or PK... that's bad.

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06-30-2017, 07:40 PM
  #102
iDangleDangle
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Sure, but what difference does that make. Abdelkader was that guy, then last year he was not. If he gets back to what he was, he'll earn the deal.



Enh. The term made the salary possible, and if he earns the deal in 4 or 5 of the years I'm not going to freak out about the couple he struggled in.

Now, if he struggles in the first two or three of the years, huge problem.
The term made it possible? His cap hit is not a discount.

The guy leeched on Dats and Z and got a few career years and turned into a big payday. Some of you are acting like Abby has a notable history of top 6 level production.

GM's should be weary of signing veteran power forwards to life time deals after a flukey season or two.

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07-01-2017, 09:13 AM
  #103
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The term made it possible? His cap hit is not a discount.
And if he had signed for fewer years, the cap hit would have been higher. Going 7 allowed the team go get the cap hit to 4.25 (which is at the low end of guys who signed UFA deals in his range). If it's a 3-5 year deal the cap hit is 5+. Look at the other UFA deals.

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The guy leeched on Dats and Z
A) He played around 25% of the time at ES with Datsyuk in 15, and 20% in 16.

B) Leeching off Z implies Z was, you know, really good. He hasn't been. Z's been an average to slightly above average top line center for 3+ years now. If this was 2009, sure. Leeching. It's not, so it wasn't.

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Some of you are acting like Abby has a notable history of top 6 level production.
Nah. He had a couple good years going into his deal, and got paid. Happens almost all the time. There are literally no GMs who are going to let an expiring RFA like Abdelkader walk coming off a couple ~20 goal seasons. If there's an instance of a GM doing that, ever, enlighten me, because I don't remember it.

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GM's should be weary of signing veteran power forwards to life time deals after a flukey season or two.
This was his first UFA deal coming off four years where his cap number was 1.8. Obviously, Holland's not going to get any credit for that and no one is going to incorporate that into how they consider subsequent deals are structured. Just in case, though, I'll mention it.

It's not like he was 33 and got a 6 year deal, and it's not like his deal is going to take him well beyond an age to be competent on the ice and leave the team on the hook for a recapture hit. The primary danger in the deal is Abdelkader sucking, not the term or the amount.

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07-01-2017, 09:45 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by iDangleDangle View Post
The term made it possible? His cap hit is not a discount.

The guy leeched on Dats and Z and got a few career years and turned into a big payday. Some of you are acting like Abby has a notable history of top 6 level production.

GM's should be weary of signing veteran power forwards to life time deals after a flukey season or two.
Abby's contract was a reflection of the imbalance of the roster that led to a shortage of what he brings to the table when playing well. This year's draft is a clear attempt to not find ourselves so desperate to retain anyone who brings decent sandpaper and supporting offence again for the foreseeable future.

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07-01-2017, 09:45 AM
  #105
Bruce Joker
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
When you play in all three phases, that's going to happen often. Are we now going to use his then-durability and 200-foot game against him?

Seriously, if he plays 76+ games, on all three units, and is in the top 3 in total IT, and scores 18-22... he earns the deal. I mean, come on. That's now he got the deal in the first place: by doing that while mostly on a line with Z (who is not an elite centerman, full stop) and assorted other forwards.

If he gags around and scores a dozen, misses a bunch of time, or loses his spot either at ES or on the PP or PK... that's bad.
You must have missed the last part of the post. He had the second most ice time on 5 on 5 and yet he produced like a third liner

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07-13-2017, 09:05 AM
  #106
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Study on defenseman that are still in the AHL at age 21:


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07-13-2017, 09:27 AM
  #107
Cyborg Yzerberg
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Study on defenseman that are still in the AHL at age 21:

God damn, that's depressing.

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Old
07-13-2017, 09:39 AM
  #108
Zetterberg4Captain
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God damn, that's depressing.
It makes sense

Three years post draft if your not in the league you will won't ever really be

That's alot of development time

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07-13-2017, 10:29 AM
  #109
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Study on defenseman that are still in the AHL at age 21:

I'm not sure how meaningful this really is though. That's about a 10% success-rate of top 4D among 21-year old AHLers. It seems somewhat obvious that if a kid is breaking into the NHL at 18-19-20 he has a higher chance of becoming a top 4 guy, but 10% can't be much worse than if someone is, say, playing overseas or in college at 21. Good Top 4D are just rare no matter what.

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07-13-2017, 01:44 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Pavels Dog View Post
I'm not sure how meaningful this really is though. That's about a 10% success-rate of top 4D among 21-year old AHLers. It seems somewhat obvious that if a kid is breaking into the NHL at 18-19-20 he has a higher chance of becoming a top 4 guy, but 10% can't be much worse than if someone is, say, playing overseas or in college at 21. Good Top 4D are just rare no matter what.
Somebody can adjust my math if they have the actual statistics, but I'd approximate:

* There are 31 NHL teams, each with their 4 best defensemen. That's 124 players.
* Of those, let's say 50-60 would be considered good top 4 players. (Technically, the best 62 would be above average, although that's assuming that somebody's #5 D isn't better than somebody else's #1.) So let's go conservative with 50.
* Let's say a top 4 defenseman has an average career of 10 years. That means that 50 players get turned over in a decade, or 5 per year.
* So conservatively, 5 players per year, in a league of 31 teams, is a 16.1 percent chance of adding a top 4 defenseman to a given team's roster in a given year. (And really, it should be 5 / 30 = 16.6%, since Vegas hasn't been part of the equation yet.)

So it's rare, but, if my approximations are even in the ballpark, it sounds like still being in the AHL at 21 means you have a below average chance at becoming a top 4 guy, relatively speaking.

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07-13-2017, 02:17 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Pavels Dog View Post
I'm not sure how meaningful this really is though. That's about a 10% success-rate of top 4D among 21-year old AHLers. It seems somewhat obvious that if a kid is breaking into the NHL at 18-19-20 he has a higher chance of becoming a top 4 guy, but 10% can't be much worse than if someone is, say, playing overseas or in college at 21. Good Top 4D are just rare no matter what.
Sure.

But it also means anyone expecting some of our 21+ d-men to turn into legit top4 guys are really fighting against the odds.

Turns out most good players are good nearly right away, not developed.

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