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Old
07-08-2017, 09:39 PM
  #176
WartracePred
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I think Aberg has more finish, but Arvy is relentless. He never gives up on the forcheck and creates so many turnovers. Not sure if he'll score 30 goals again, but I won't be surprised if he does. The confidence that Aberg and Sissons gained in the Final should help their development. They now know they can do it, they just have to stay focused and consistent. That will be their challenge.

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07-09-2017, 02:30 AM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Question: based on what you have seen, will Aberg score 10+ goals next season?
If he gets decent ice time and not awful linemates while not being shipped back and forth to Milwaukee and/or in the press box, yes.

If things go right he could be a 20/20 player this year.

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Old
07-09-2017, 09:10 AM
  #178
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Aberg didn't generate like Arvidsson
Not this season. I believe he will next year. He is deceptively fast on the ice. He reads the play very well and is stronger on his skates than Arvy is. This is not a knock on Arvy at all. Aberg is smooth, fast and bright on the ice. He's got a solid shot, just needs to find the back of the net, which should happen.

I think Poile holds on to Neal if he doesn't feel Fiala and Aberg weren't ready to step up. It's the only logical reasoning.

And as far as people worrying about replacing Neal's production, they shouldn't. Bonino and Hartnell coming in basically are equivalent to Wilson and Neal going out numbers wise. If Fisher leaves, the hope is Krok and Sissons step it up some. The other part of the equation is Fiala's production increasing, which once again by all appearances, should increase as well. Throw in Aberg's production ore than likely going up as well and the offensive production will be there.

Don't forget about another year of our top 4 being together. There won't be the adjustment period of our top 2 pairings to gel this time around. This should result in a bump in their production as well.

One other thing to consider, the PP. This is where adding Hartnell should be a boon. While Neal was a great sniper, he was hardly existent on the PP. I believe two years ago he scored 4 goals on the PP? Not great numbers by any means. Whoever the new assistant coach is, I hope they do well to help generate more goals from the PP on a consistent basis. At the same time, I hope they are able to continue the development of our blue line the way Housley was able to do.

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07-09-2017, 09:27 AM
  #179
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I hope OT will be addressed successfully

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07-09-2017, 04:41 PM
  #180
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Not this season. I believe he will next year. He is deceptively fast on the ice. He reads the play very well and is stronger on his skates than Arvy is. This is not a knock on Arvy at all. Aberg is smooth, fast and bright on the ice. He's got a solid shot, just needs to find the back of the net, which should happen.

I think Poile holds on to Neal if he doesn't feel Fiala and Aberg weren't ready to step up. It's the only logical reasoning.

And as far as people worrying about replacing Neal's production, they shouldn't. Bonino and Hartnell coming in basically are equivalent to Wilson and Neal going out numbers wise. If Fisher leaves, the hope is Krok and Sissons step it up some. The other part of the equation is Fiala's production increasing, which once again by all appearances, should increase as well. Throw in Aberg's production ore than likely going up as well and the offensive production will be there.

Don't forget about another year of our top 4 being together. There won't be the adjustment period of our top 2 pairings to gel this time around. This should result in a bump in their production as well.

One other thing to consider, the PP. This is where adding Hartnell should be a boon. While Neal was a great sniper, he was hardly existent on the PP. I believe two years ago he scored 4 goals on the PP? Not great numbers by any means. Whoever the new assistant coach is, I hope they do well to help generate more goals from the PP on a consistent basis. At the same time, I hope they are able to continue the development of our blue line the way Housley was able to do.
I agree with Aberg and Fiala

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Old
07-10-2017, 11:14 AM
  #181
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Arvidsson shot 15 percent this year, which is amazing considering how MUCH he shot. League average, which everyone regresses to at some point, is 8-11 percent.

I'd be surprised if Arvidsson breaks 30 again next season. I think 20-25 is more realistic.

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07-10-2017, 11:25 AM
  #182
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Originally Posted by FossilFndr View Post
I hope OT will be addressed successfully
If I recall, it kind of was towards the end of the season. I don't think we were as bad. We may not have won OT every time, but I believe our strategy changed. However I also thought Housley was mainly in charge of it so I don't know what his departure means.

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07-10-2017, 01:09 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by nomorekids View Post
Arvidsson shot 15 percent this year, which is amazing considering how MUCH he shot. League average, which everyone regresses to at some point, is 8-11 percent.

I'd be surprised if Arvidsson breaks 30 again next season. I think 20-25 is more realistic.
Arvidsson shot 12.6%, which isn't that uncommon for a guy with a nice shot and a nose for the net. Forsberg is over 13% each of the past two years and Neal's career average is over 12%.

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07-10-2017, 01:24 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
Arvidsson shot 12.6%, which isn't that uncommon for a guy with a nice shot and a nose for the net. Forsberg is over 13% each of the past two years and Neal's career average is over 12%.
His ES SP was 15.1

As for Neal and Forsberg, they are in elite company in terms of shooting efficiency and xG conversion -- https://t.co/ApTbuoFNeG

Part of the reason why I'm nervous about the idea that Aberg\Fiala are going to naturally replace Neal's goal scoring. Neal may not have been the most creative player or the most effective at creating his own offense, but in terms of sheer goal scoring ability -- in terms of the chances of his shots turning into goals, he was one of the best in the entire league.

A one-trick pony whose one trick was knowing how to score goals.

As for the idea that someone can sustain a > 12% shooting percentage, it's very, very uncommon. Tyler Dellow wrote a pretty good piece on shooting effectiveness and the idea of "skilled shooters" and their ability to defy statistical regression. I will dig and see if I can find it. My point, however, is that Arvidsson's numbers say "greased the percentages" this season. It's part of why I'm leary of a long-term deal for him...I want to see what happens in the next season or two before I go backing up the Brinks truck.

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07-10-2017, 01:47 PM
  #185
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I don't necessarily think he'll keep up 12.5% overall, but with Ryan Johansen passing him the puck, it isn't impossible that he'll finish near there. He could up his power play sh% some even if the even strength sh% comes down. He was outside of the top 100 in overall sh% out of players with 50+ games played, so it wasn't an insane season overall or anything.

I think he's probably more of a 25 goal scorer than 30, but I wouldn't be shocked if he broke 30 again over the next 2-3 years. I also wouldn't be shocked if he was more of a 20 goal, 25-30 assist guy that had a bit of an anomalous season last year.

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07-11-2017, 07:06 AM
  #186
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Originally Posted by FossilFndr View Post
I hope OT will be addressed successfully
And the pp

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07-12-2017, 11:44 AM
  #187
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a few off season thoughts and general observations...

..it appears poile/lavy are convinced that both fiala and aberg are ready for full time roles. like them both, especially fiala, but i hope they are right.
..appears they are convinced aberg can step right in for neal on the 2nd line rw position with our lack of rw depth. this might or might not be the case. it's definitely a big gamble.
..personally i am worried about our RW depth. i expect smith to bounce back and have a better year, but one never knows. have no idea if aberg is really ready or not. don't expect a 30 goal year out of arvy again. watson should be an excellent 4th line RW this year.
..if fisher comes back and you shift jarnkrok to RW the depth there gets a little better looking.

..personally i still don't know if saros is the long term goalie answer. really worry how much weaker he looked the second time around the league last year.
..if rinne reverts to a .915ish save percentage it will once again sort of hide our defensemen's strength. if he is around the .925 he had in the playoffs we will be a top 5 team because of the defense and just enough goal scoring.
..i still beleive you need a mix of speed and power among your forward corps to best matchup against all types of teams. i worry a lineup with arvy, fiala, aberg, jarnkrok and missing a neal will hurt us against physical teams.

..obviously i am concerned about our center position. without fisher/duchene that of course remains our biggest weakness.have hope for sissons/bonino/jarnkrok being adequate. maybe sissons play in the playoffs wasn't a fluke. hope fisher plays another year to really help our depth.
..afraid we are sort of overconfident offensively in the team because of the playoffs. face it, we got scoring from guys that didn't score crap in the entire season. fiddler, mcleod, zolnercyck, sissons, watson, fiala with more than half of our game winners/critical goals. maybe some (sissons, fiala specifically) have turned the corner. but it's a dangerous thing to think the timely scoring we got in the playoffs from unlikely people will continue at the same rate this next season. might happen, but it also might not.
..still think poile is interested in duchene of course. might still have something up his sleeve, but at this point i don't expect a deal to be done before the season for him by us.

..worry some about housley leaving. he seemed to be the hands on guy in practice and on the bench. maybe it will be no big deal.
..while i think CHI has gotten weaker, they are still CHI. i think we are right there with STL. i do worry about DAL and WPG this year being better and challenging.

i think as usual it comes down to rinne again. if he's a .915 guy we will fight for our lives to even make the playoffs. if he's a .920 guy we will challenge for the Central. if he could somehow be a .925 guy we will win the Central and cover up all holes we see.

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07-12-2017, 01:30 PM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pred303 View Post
a few off season thoughts and general observations...

..it appears poile/lavy are convinced that both fiala and aberg are ready for full time roles. like them both, especially fiala, but i hope they are right.
..appears they are convinced aberg can step right in for neal on the 2nd line rw position with our lack of rw depth. this might or might not be the case. it's definitely a big gamble.
..personally i am worried about our RW depth. i expect smith to bounce back and have a better year, but one never knows. have no idea if aberg is really ready or not. don't expect a 30 goal year out of arvy again. watson should be an excellent 4th line RW this year.
..if fisher comes back and you shift jarnkrok to RW the depth there gets a little better looking.

..personally i still don't know if saros is the long term goalie answer. really worry how much weaker he looked the second time around the league last year.
..if rinne reverts to a .915ish save percentage it will once again sort of hide our defensemen's strength. if he is around the .925 he had in the playoffs we will be a top 5 team because of the defense and just enough goal scoring.
..i still beleive you need a mix of speed and power among your forward corps to best matchup against all types of teams. i worry a lineup with arvy, fiala, aberg, jarnkrok and missing a neal will hurt us against physical teams.

..obviously i am concerned about our center position. without fisher/duchene that of course remains our biggest weakness.have hope for sissons/bonino/jarnkrok being adequate. maybe sissons play in the playoffs wasn't a fluke. hope fisher plays another year to really help our depth.
..afraid we are sort of overconfident offensively in the team because of the playoffs. face it, we got scoring from guys that didn't score crap in the entire season. fiddler, mcleod, zolnercyck, sissons, watson, fiala with more than half of our game winners/critical goals. maybe some (sissons, fiala specifically) have turned the corner. but it's a dangerous thing to think the timely scoring we got in the playoffs from unlikely people will continue at the same rate this next season. might happen, but it also might not.
..still think poile is interested in duchene of course. might still have something up his sleeve, but at this point i don't expect a deal to be done before the season for him by us.

..worry some about housley leaving. he seemed to be the hands on guy in practice and on the bench. maybe it will be no big deal.
..while i think CHI has gotten weaker, they are still CHI. i think we are right there with STL. i do worry about DAL and WPG this year being better and challenging.

i think as usual it comes down to rinne again. if he's a .915 guy we will fight for our lives to even make the playoffs. if he's a .920 guy we will challenge for the Central. if he could somehow be a .925 guy we will win the Central and cover up all holes we see.
Geez, 303, that's a lot of worry and concerns. Don't let the Long Hot Summer get you down.

I think Poile has one more move but even if he doesn't, we retained the core that made us successful (Top 4 D) who will be better than last regular season since they really didn't get going until the 2nd half last year. Neal will be missed but lets face it, the "threat" or the "promise" of Neal the Sniper was a lot more than the reality. 23 streaky goals with many disappearing acts through long stretches of the season. I'm all for giving Fiala and Aberg a shot at making up for Neal. Regardless of how that works out, we'll have $$ for a rental in Jan/Feb (Maybe Nealer himself).

Agree on the questions about Saros. He got progressively worse. Not a big enough sample size but he's earned 20-25 starts. If he struggles, there's plenty of vet back-ups available.

Our success begins and ends with Pekka. "Playoff Pekka" in the regular season works for us. He's our horse and we're riding him.

We'll be 100+ points and a Cup Contender. After that, it's who gets hot and a little luck.

Drop the damn puck.

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07-12-2017, 07:55 PM
  #189
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Great to see a post from Steve

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07-13-2017, 07:04 AM
  #190
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Great to see a post from Steve
Shush, like all wild things you might scare him away.

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07-13-2017, 11:50 AM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pred303 View Post
a few off season thoughts and general observations...

..it appears poile/lavy are convinced that both fiala and aberg are ready for full time roles. like them both, especially fiala, but i hope they are right.
..appears they are convinced aberg can step right in for neal on the 2nd line rw position with our lack of rw depth. this might or might not be the case. it's definitely a big gamble.
..personally i am worried about our RW depth. i expect smith to bounce back and have a better year, but one never knows. have no idea if aberg is really ready or not. don't expect a 30 goal year out of arvy again. watson should be an excellent 4th line RW this year.
..if fisher comes back and you shift jarnkrok to RW the depth there gets a little better looking.

..personally i still don't know if saros is the long term goalie answer. really worry how much weaker he looked the second time around the league last year.
..if rinne reverts to a .915ish save percentage it will once again sort of hide our defensemen's strength. if he is around the .925 he had in the playoffs we will be a top 5 team because of the defense and just enough goal scoring.
..i still beleive you need a mix of speed and power among your forward corps to best matchup against all types of teams. i worry a lineup with arvy, fiala, aberg, jarnkrok and missing a neal will hurt us against physical teams.

..obviously i am concerned about our center position. without fisher/duchene that of course remains our biggest weakness.have hope for sissons/bonino/jarnkrok being adequate. maybe sissons play in the playoffs wasn't a fluke. hope fisher plays another year to really help our depth.
..afraid we are sort of overconfident offensively in the team because of the playoffs. face it, we got scoring from guys that didn't score crap in the entire season. fiddler, mcleod, zolnercyck, sissons, watson, fiala with more than half of our game winners/critical goals. maybe some (sissons, fiala specifically) have turned the corner. but it's a dangerous thing to think the timely scoring we got in the playoffs from unlikely people will continue at the same rate this next season. might happen, but it also might not.
..still think poile is interested in duchene of course. might still have something up his sleeve, but at this point i don't expect a deal to be done before the season for him by us.

..worry some about housley leaving. he seemed to be the hands on guy in practice and on the bench. maybe it will be no big deal.
..while i think CHI has gotten weaker, they are still CHI. i think we are right there with STL. i do worry about DAL and WPG this year being better and challenging.

i think as usual it comes down to rinne again. if he's a .915 guy we will fight for our lives to even make the playoffs. if he's a .920 guy we will challenge for the Central. if he could somehow be a .925 guy we will win the Central and cover up all holes we see.

I can see Fiala coming back from the fracture and producing but I can't see it with Aberg. I just have not seen anything with Aberg that makes me believe he's ready. I hope Poile saves a large buffer for the trade deadline because I honestly expect Poile to trade for a replacement at the deadline.

I believe Smith is the replacement for Neal. Smith had a very down year but he's been the kicking boy for Pred fans for ages. If he jumps up to the 20 goal scorer he was before, awesome. If not, the Preds are in trouble. Personally, I don't mind Smith at 2nd line RW IF Fisher re-signs and bumps Jarnkrok to RW. If not, then I'm worried too.

I don't mind the center depth as is: Johansen/Bonino/Jarnkrok/Sissons. Fisher would be a lovely fit, a Duchene trade would be expensive as all get out and the other options are unknowns so we will see. If the Preds trade for Duchene at the trade deadline it will be overpriced because of the trade deadline premium.

Rinne scares me, he's not on his FA year where most players improve for the contract year. His statistical pattern says he will have a down year but I also believe the number of games he will play will go down. 61 last year. I predict 50-55 the up coming season. Steve, you worry about Saros but I don't. Here are his games last year:

@DAL, @STL, @NYI, @CAR, @SJS, CHI, WSH, CGY, @CBJ, FLA, @NYR, BUF, @CGY, BOS, @FLA, @STL, @NJD, NYR, PHI, @WPG, PIT

That's 12 away games out of 21. Also that's against tough teams. Games that are and were expected to be tough were at home; CHI, FLA, BOS, PIT,

I spent most of last season asking "Why is Saros playing against the tougher teams in back to backs" I think the Preds were beginning to feed him to the wolves. Also, I don't see this supposed drop in the statistics, Saros still managed a sv% of .923 and a GAA of 2.35. Which is pretty good. I expect a 50/32 split. between Rinne and Saros.

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07-13-2017, 01:29 PM
  #192
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I just watched a video of all of Forsberg's goals from last season and geez I forgot how long it took for him to get going. First goal was a month in and his third came December 13th.

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07-14-2017, 05:17 AM
  #193
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I just watched a video of all of Forsberg's goals from last season and geez I forgot how long it took for him to get going. First goal was a month in and his third came December 13th.
Yup. When he gets rid of his consistency issues, he can easily be a 40 goal scorer in this league, especially when centered by someone as good as Johansen.

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07-14-2017, 08:40 AM
  #194
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It's really hard to believe Forsberg still only turns 23 next month.

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07-14-2017, 09:19 AM
  #195
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Looking forward to a full year of JOFA.

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07-14-2017, 09:56 AM
  #196
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It's really hard to believe Forsberg still only turns 23 next month.
It really is- and maybe even more so Johansen is still only 24. Seems like he has been around forever.

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07-14-2017, 11:31 AM
  #197
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It really is- and maybe even more so Johansen is still only 24. Seems like he has been around forever.
Joey turns 25 in a couple weeks and Forsberg is 23 in a month so they'll have an additional year when the season starts BUT it's still awesome to think about what kind of position we're in with them right now.

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07-14-2017, 12:34 PM
  #198
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Joey turns 25 in a couple weeks and Forsberg is 23 in a month so they'll have an additional year when the season starts BUT it's still awesome to think about what kind of position we're in with them right now.
I think they can maintain their level of play well into their early 30s. Their production pretty much defines our window.

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07-18-2017, 01:35 PM
  #199
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So I've been thinking about this Neal Jarny thing more and more. Now that its done, and we don't have Neal and we retained Jarny, it doesn't feel good. My head says Neal was in his last year and we have Yarny signed for a century at $2mm per year, so it was smart. My heart tells me it's going to make it harder to win the Cup next year without the threat of a Sniper like Neal.

But then I thought, Vegas isn't going to re-sign him and they're gonna suck so he's guaranteed to be available for rental by January. We give Vegas a 2nd Round pick and get him back for the stretch run, and all is good. It's the equivalent of giving Vegas a 2nd Round pick in the expansion draft in return for not drafting any of our players. I would have gone for that deal.

So, give the young guns at wing a chance to shine from October thru December. If they're lighting it up and wing looks good, no need for the deal. If we need Neal back, go get him back. I'm sure he'd love to be back.

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07-18-2017, 01:59 PM
  #200
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We give Vegas a 2nd Round pick and get him back for the stretch run, and all is good.
I'm pretty sure someone is ready to give Vegas a 1st for him..

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