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2017 Ranking #5

View Poll Results: Avalanche #5 prospect is:
JC Beaudin (C) Rouyn-Noranda [#71 overall, 2015] 1 0.90%
Chris Bigras (D) San Antonio [#32 overall, 2013] 59 53.15%
AJ Greer (LW) San Antonio [#39 overall, 2015] 22 19.82%
Andrei Mironov (D) Dynamo Moskava [#101 overall, 2015] 6 5.41%
Cam Morrison (LW) Notre Dame [#40 overall, 2016] 1 0.90%
Conor Timmins (D) Sault Ste. Marie [#32 overall, 2017] 22 19.82%
Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-13-2017, 02:08 PM
  #51
Mystic MacK
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
No one knows if Chabot or Makar will be top pairing dmen, does that mean we take Beaudin ahead of them?
No problem with ranking prospects how people feel, I'm just saying it's wrong to peg Greer as a bottom six guy, while being so sure that Meloche will be in the top 4.

It's mostly rooted in the fact that fans here tend to favor the flavor of the year D prospect. Whoever just came out of junior with a good season.

First it was Elliott being better than Barrie because of his flashier junior career. Then Gaunce was supposed to be the next Foote with his great final junior season. He fell out of favor pretty quick, and then Siemens was supposed to be the real Foote. He fell out of favor quick as a pro, and then Geertsen was supposed to be everything Siemens was supposed to be because he finished with a strong junior year. Bigras was supposed to be a slam dunk top 4 guy. He had some injury issues, and now Meloche is viewed higher than him. If he doesn't take another step forward next year, I'm sure Timmins will surpass him in many peoples eyes.

I don't know who will turn out better, I think all of these prospects are really close. I just feel people are underrating Greer more than others. Same might turn out to be true for Beaudin too, though I want to see him play pro first.

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07-13-2017, 02:14 PM
  #52
henchman24
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
Mironov was also part of a team that just had to let go of all of their 1-way contracted players. Shvyryov belongs to one of the 3 powerhouses of the KHL who are very well funded, and have an absolutely legendary KHL player on the downside of his career who will need a successor. The opportunity to play with Mozaykin and one day replace him for that team is a lot more tempting than having to find a new team because the club that raised you is insolvent.

Shvyryov is a different caliber of talent, but he's also going to have a lot more incentive to stay in russia if he continues to develop well and thrive.
Dynamo is one of the most storied franchises in Russia. Their collapse isn't something that really could have been forecasted in 2015. Also, Kamenev was pretty much in the same exact situation when he was drafted... he came over.

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07-13-2017, 02:40 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Dynamo is one of the most storied franchises in Russia. Their collapse isn't something that really could have been forecasted in 2015. Also, Kamenev was pretty much in the same exact situation when he was drafted... he came over.
Their collapse wasn't predictable and they had a glorious history; but they weren't on the level of ZSKA, SKA, or Metallurg. Those are the perennial favorites, Dynamo was more of a regular playoff team than regular cup favorite.

Kamenev is a good counterpoint; but Mozaykin is closer to the end now, and that's Shvyryov's home town team; while Kamenev was just from the region. So I think the appeal of staying is even stronger now. Though good call on Kamenev; hopefully we have as much success bringing Igor over to the AHL after a year. Would be an awesome way to introduce the Eagles to the AHL; especially if we get Makar to leave school and spend a season in the AHL after his freshman campaign as well.

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Old
07-13-2017, 02:53 PM
  #54
henchman24
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Metallurg's depth plays against them with kids. Like all players they want to develop and have roles. Bigger roles are hard to get there, especially for centers. I have a much different outlook on the Russian factor. If they are good enough for the NHL, I think they eventually come over to try their hand. It is more about them willing to stay when times and contract negotiations get tough. IE if Mironov doesn't stabilize a role and get a ~2+m contract at the end of his deal... I doubt he stays.

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07-13-2017, 02:59 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Metallurg's depth plays against them with kids. Like all players they want to develop and have roles. Bigger roles are hard to get there, especially for centers. I have a much different outlook on the Russian factor. If they are good enough for the NHL, I think they eventually come over to try their hand. It is more about them willing to stay when times and contract negotiations get tough. IE if Mironov doesn't stabilize a role and get a ~2+m contract at the end of his deal... I doubt he stays.
I don't disagree with you...especially on Mironov...but the timing is just lining up perfectly for Shvyryov to break into their lineup and kill at either next to Mozaykin or taking advantage of the attention he gets with his own line. Maybe I'm just being overly paranoid because of the year we've just had; but I can see the hometown kid wanting to take his shot at replacing the local legend and only coming over if he fails to earn a scoring line gig in the next 2-3 years.

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07-13-2017, 03:53 PM
  #56
tigervixxxen
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Shyv is also still a prospect in Russia, he isn't an established KHLer either. So he too needs to a) develop and b) come to NA. His ceiling and talent level is obviously the plus.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:19 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cgf View Post
No one knows if Chabot or Makar will be top pairing dmen, does that mean we take Beaudin ahead of them?
This is quite the exaggeration in your rebuttal. We go from comparing a forward picked in the second round to Dmen picked in the same area to comparing a depth prospect every team has multiple of to some of the best defensive prospects in the league.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystic MacK View Post
Here's the thing though, nobody knows if Bigras or Meloche will be top 4 D men, any more than Greer won't be a top 6er.
I agree a bit with Mystic here. Some posters here are basing their arguments on a near guarantee that these defensemen will become top-4 level players when we are lucky if even one makes it to the NHL. I like the arguments saying that Meloche (for example) has the "tools to become" a top-4 D. I don't like the arguments saying Bigras "will become" a top-4 and thus is better than Greer. I'm not saying it's wrong to rank the D ahead of Greer. But it's also not wrong to rank Greer ahead of the D prospects.

Fact of the matter is that the team has successfully promoted one defenseman (Barrie) drafted since 2008. As said a bit before me here, we have seen many prospects come and go, so please excuse those of us that expect the cycle to continue.

I posted in the draft thread that about 25% of 2nd rounders end up playing over 150 games (from a sample of 08-12 drafts). The Avs have 4 second round prospects that we are currently arguing over. I imagine it's reasonable to expect maybe one or two to make the NHL (which they have to do before that can become top-4 or mid-6 level players).

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07-13-2017, 04:24 PM
  #58
McMetal
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Originally Posted by GeniusSuperior View Post
I posted in the draft thread that about 25% of 2nd rounders end up playing over 150 games (from a sample of 08-12 drafts). The Avs have 4 second round prospects that we are currently arguing over. I imagine it's reasonable to expect maybe one or two to make the NHL (which they have to do before that can become top-4 or mid-6 level players).
The second rounders we're talking about we're all picked between 32 and 40 though. Most drafts drop off hard after 45-50 or so, so it's disingenuous to take the "second round" as one arbitrary block of players and lump them together.

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07-13-2017, 04:47 PM
  #59
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Philosophically, that's the part of this debate. Just on the surface I believe that a top 4 D is more valuable than a middle 6 forward, though it probably is more difficult to become/establish as a top 4 D. Those that have just finished their junior/college career, are signed but haven't played pro yet are at the apex of their benefit of the doubt. Once they start playing pro then the clock starts ticking but what they accomplish goes into the "proven" bucket as well. For me, I lean on the side of ceiling but do consider distance from NHL/proven and likelihood of reaching ceiling. If I can't decide then I think who I'd value more in a trade, which encompasses all considerations.

Compher/Meloche/Bigras/Greer/Timmins IMO are a tier and are very close, arguments could be seen either way. Bigras gets credit for being more proven but drawbacks because of doubts he's going to stick. I haven't changed my mind on his ceiling or skillset, I just worry the org might be starting to look past him. Will be a big year for him, maybe he sticks in the NHL but it's his last year of waiver exemption. Greer I think it's really the interpretation if folks see him as more of a 2nd or 3rd liner and is his offense can translate or if you count what he did last year as proving it. Meloche for me has the toolset and ceiling I like the best, which is why I voted him but it's possible Timmins can improve on his big year and challenge him for it. Depending how next year goes the players in this category can flip flop around.

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Old
07-13-2017, 04:54 PM
  #60
GeniusSuperior
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
The second rounders we're talking about we're all picked between 32 and 40 though. Most drafts drop off hard after 45-50 or so, so it's disingenuous to take the "second round" as one arbitrary block of players and lump them together.
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
Like I said, it's also misleading to lump all seconds together. Those finge late 1sts/fallers that go in the ~40 range are a lot different than those in the ~60 range. The Avs haven't had a second lower than 49 since 2008.

What is the AHL for then, to give them something to do? Why doesn't every prospect go to the NHL straight from juniors?


I'm not quite sure I agree here.

08-12 drafts
Picks 31-40 [without 2012]
1 game: 78% [90%]
50 games: 40% [47.5%]
100 games: 34% [42.5%]
150 games: 28% [35%]

Picks 51-60
1 game: 64% [70%]
50 games: 44% [47.5%]
100 games: 38% [40%]
150 games: 36% [37.5%]

in 2012, 51-60 was much better than 31-40 which skews numbers a little. This is only five drafts though, so its a rather small sample size.
(Sorry about formatting) Tiger made the same point in the thread I was talking about. This was my reply.

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07-13-2017, 05:04 PM
  #61
chet1926
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I'm surprised that Timmins isn't closer in this poll, he is a really good player. I'd be shocked if he didn't end up better than Bigras.

I hate to say it but Bigras has to prove a lot to me this year at camp. I was super high on him, like I thought he'd be a really solid #3, who could play up in a pinch and not look bad type player, a couple years back. But now a few injuries later I'm starting to think it will be a win if he even ends up as a 3rd pairing guy.

I'm pulling for the guy but I just can't rate him as high any more. IMO he is behind Greer, Timmins and Mironov. But if he can regain form then this would be the spot for him. But IMO that is a big IF.

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07-13-2017, 06:26 PM
  #62
LieutenantDangle
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IIRC Bender had Timmins ranked in the top 10 of this years draft. People are sleeping on him
Big time

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07-13-2017, 06:32 PM
  #63
McMetal
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I like Timmins, but he's a fresh draftee and I can't rate him above Bigras, Meloche, or Greer until I see how he steps up in his draft+1 year and how he addresses the holes in his game.

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07-14-2017, 01:49 PM
  #64
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It will be interesting to see in the next round how the Bigras vote splits between Greer and Timmins with the two of them in a dead heat for 2nd.

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07-14-2017, 02:05 PM
  #65
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Well this is, if nothing else, an improvement from the days when I was hoping Ray Macias would get an NHL game...

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07-14-2017, 02:13 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
It will be interesting to see in the next round how the Bigras vote splits between Greer and Timmins with the two of them in a dead heat for 2nd.
I suspect most will go to Timmins since I feel like most of the people who agree with the top 4 dman > top 9 W thinking will continue with this thinking; while the people who are won over by Greer's tireless drive and skillset and see him as a new age deadmarsh are already voting for Greer ahead of top 4 defensive prospects.

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07-14-2017, 02:33 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cgf View Post
I suspect most will go to Timmins since I feel like most of the people who agree with the top 4 dman > top 9 W thinking will continue with this thinking; while the people who are won over by Greer's tireless drive and skillset and see him as a new age deadmarsh are already voting for Greer ahead of top 4 defensive prospects.
I'm riding with Greer next round. Love his game

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07-14-2017, 02:52 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by chet1926 View Post
I'm surprised that Timmins isn't closer in this poll, he is a really good player. I'd be shocked if he didn't end up better than Bigras.
Too early in his development for me to put his ahead of Bigras, or Greer for that matter. Hopefully he has a good showing at Training Camp and gets a couple of preseason games under his belt.

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07-14-2017, 02:54 PM
  #69
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Bigras really cleaned up this round. He really slipped down my totem pole last year but I'm glad to see there are still people high on him.

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07-14-2017, 03:00 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
It will be interesting to see in the next round how the Bigras vote splits between Greer and Timmins with the two of them in a dead heat for 2nd.
I think Greer will win next round but we'll see. I'll get the next poll up this afternoon.

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07-14-2017, 05:33 PM
  #71
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Greer

Add Martin

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07-14-2017, 05:57 PM
  #72
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Bigras.
Timmins will be my next choice. As other have said I value top 4 dmen over top-9 Ws and this is from a guy that loves Greer as a prospect.

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